NFL
By: Randall Slifer
Arkansas Baseball took a big series win in their final home series last weekend against 24th-ranked Oklahoma. They managed to take the first two games to seal the victory, but did not sweep Oklahoma. This series win moved Arkansas Baseball to 12th in the country, seemingly making it a contender to host the first round of the postseason.
The SEC Tournament is next week, and Arkansas Baseball has one last matchup in Lexington versus a good Kentucky team. The Kentucky series will carry more weight than the SEC tournament in terms of regional play. Still, any additional wins will benefit Arkansas when postseason selections are made in two weeks.
Let’s take a look at the Kentucky series and why Arkansas could host the first round of the postseason:
Can Kentucky rain on Arkansas Baseball’s parade?
Arkansas Baseball is playing some of its best baseball, but Kentucky is no slouch in the SEC. Kentucky Baseball ranks 33rd in RPI with a 30-18 record, including a 19-6 mark at home. They have played a weaker schedule than Arkansas, and a losing record of 7-8 in Quad 1 games.
In similar matchups, Arkansas Baseball has series wins against South Carolina, Missouri, and Ole Miss, while Kentucky has series losses. Their biggest wins were a sweep of Alabama (which Arkansas also did) and a series win against Tennessee. Their most notable series loss was to the down-and-out LSU squad, which admitted it had built a bad roster.
Kentucky has some big bats in its lineup, with 4 batters batting over .325. Kentucky’s Ethan Hindle has a slugging percentage of over .600 with 10 home runs and 45 RBI’s. Arkansas goes toe to toe with Kentucky in terms of hitting, though. For a quick breakdown:
Category – Kentucky – Arkansas
Batting Avg: .284 – .277
Runs PG: 7.10 – 7.26
Hits PG: 9.33 – 9.23
Slug %: .455 – .480
OB %: .402 – .379
Arkansas has matched Kentucky’s hitting while having a top-25 strength of schedule, while Kentucky is outside the top 50. The key to Arkansas Baseball’s win over the weekend will be how their starting pitchers show out in Lexington.
Hunter Dietz has been pitching lights out since he got the game 1 start, and he will need a win in game 1 here. I personally loved that Dave Van Horn named Gabe Gaeckle the starter for game 2 against Oklahoma. He managed to go 4.2 innings and only give up 3 runs in an 8-run game for Oklahoma. If Gaeckle can become the game 2 starter for the postseason, Arkansas Baseball is looking at a very deep bullpen, and the ability to close out game three’s easier.
Kentucky will look to take game 1, sending out their ace in Jaxon Jelkin. He is posting a 3.57 ERA with an impressive 5.5 Strikeout to Walk ratio. Jelkin has pitched a whopping 80 innings this year, and the closest pitcher to him in the day 2 starter has only pitched 40 innings. Jelkin pitches an average of 6 1/3rd innings pitched per start, and the goal would be to get him off the mound in 5 innings. He has given up 11 home runs in his 13 starts, and Arkansas can get a hold of his pitches if they are patient at the plate.
After Jelkin, what they gave behind him is not very impressive. Ben Cleaver and Nate Harris will be the next two starting pitchers, and they average 4 innings or less per start. They have an impressive reliever/closer in Nile Adcock, who has thrown 37 strikeouts in only 28 innings pitched. Circling back, the ultimate goal is to take game 1 in Lexington, and Arkansas Baseball can take the series with ease.
What happens to Arkansas Baseball if they beat Kentucky?
Right now, Arkansas Baseball is ranked 12th in the country, with an RPI of 26. Kentucky’s RPI is 33rd, which is a quality win if Arkansas can take it. A series win over Kentucky could put them in the top 25 in RPI and could move up a spot in the top 25 rankings.
Arkansas’s strength of schedule is ranked 21st on some sites and 13th on others. Arkansas ranks 21st; only 11 teams above Arkansas’ RPI rank have a schedule tougher than Arkansas’s. Only Auburn, Florida, and Ole Miss have played more Quad 1 games than Arkansas, and Arkansas took a series from Ole Miss and a game from Auburn.
As of now, the final projection of teams hosting as a 14-16 seed is Oregon, Kansas, and Oregon State. All 3 teams have a strength of schedule outside the top 50. Here is a quick look at how the games played based on quad categories line up:
Team – Record: Quad 1 – Quad 2 – Quad 3 – Quad 4
Oregon State – 41-11: 7 – 12 – 18 – 15
Oregon – 36-14: 17 – 8 – 6 – 19
Kansas – 37-15: 15 – 11 – 12 – 14
Arkansas – 34-18: 23 – 3 – 12 – 14
It’s clear that, despite Arkansas having a couple more losses right now, they have a firm case to host the regionals. The team with the fewest quad 1 games has the best record. The team with the most quad 1 games closest to Arkansas is Oregon. They have only 2 more wins but a strength of schedule of 54, while Arkansas sits at 21. In my personal opinion, Arkansas can reach the 14th seed in the postseason. They can host the regionals and hope to travel to the Super Regionals against a tough team like Georgia Tech or a rematch versus Georgia.
The greatest thing that Dave Van Horn does is understand how to run a team from day 1 to day 100. He has Arkansas playing its best ball right now, and it was a tough task for him this year. He understands that Kentucky is 100% the focus right now, and the rest of the pieces will fall in line. Arkansas takes on Kentucky in Lexington from Thursday to Saturday. The weather looks to hold up until Saturday, with a potential for delays in game 3. As always, Go Razorbacks.
