Arkansas Baseball: Win Streak + Georgia

By: Randall Slifer

Arkansas Baseball has revived its season with a 5-game win streak, including a sweep of 8^th-ranked Alabama. The series was huge, but the sweep showed that this trend can continue. As I mentioned in the Alabama preview, Arkansas had a losing problem, while Alabama had a winning problem. The teams stacked up well against each other, but baseball is about getting hot or breaking slumps. The state of Arkansas is hoping it has broken its slump.

The resurgence of this Arkansas Baseball winning streak is a result of solving their 3 biggest problems the past 2 weeks: game 1 pitching, inconsistent bats, and strikeouts. Dave Van Horn changed the pitching lineup and ran with Dietz and Gibler in the first two games. Dietz and Gibler have been the best pitchers in the pen, and they continued that against Alabama. Dave Van Horn rolled out Colin Fisher to close out game 2 to secure the series.  I like the aggressiveness of not taking any chances when every win is so vital in the second half of the season. Securing game one gave this team the confidence to take the full sweep against a top-10 team.

The inconsistent bats and high strikeout numbers were a bigger reason for the slump than the pitching. Arkansas Baseball kept leaving their guys on base, resulting in low scores and lackluster play. Let’s take a look at some basic averages from the last 5 wins versus the last 5 losses:

Stat — Wins – Losses

Hits per game – 9.2/game – 8.4/game

Walks per game – 5.2/game – 3.2/game

Strikeouts per game – 7.6/game – 12.4/game (!!!)

Runs per game – 8.8/game – 5.8/game

*Both Walks & Strikeouts are as Arkansas batters, not pitchers

As you can see, the hits are not the most staggering difference in the winning streak versus the losing streak. Arkansas Baseball has managed to get similar hits.  It has dropped 3 full runs per game in losses by leaving all their guys on base. One thing I have noticed in the eye test is that during the slump and the beginning of the year, chasing home runs seemed to be an objective. There were a lot of warning track fly balls caught, and left runners on base. This 5-game win streak has been more outfield gap hitting and tough ground balls through the center or past first base. A big change to the hitting formula has done wonders for Arkansas Baseball, because you cannot win games when you average 12.4 strikeouts per game!

Some bats are coming together, and the hitting is looking deeper than it has this season. TJ Pompey, Kuhio Aloy, and Zach Stewart all hit over .400 during this win streak, and those bats are crucial to avoid leaving runners on base in scoring position. Pompey needed some time after missing last year due to injury.  However, he is really coming into his stride now, earning SEC Player of the Week honors. Kuhio Aloy may be the most important bat. Aloy led in RBI’s last year for the dominant team in the regular season, and Dave Van Horn counted on Aloy’s bat.

Now, Arkansas Baseball needs to keep this streak alive, and we are knocking on the door of hosting regionals once again. Georgia is visiting Fayetteville this weekend, where they have a tall task, but are favored at home. Let’s take a look at how they can get it done.

What is Georgia Baseball good at?

Georgia is good at a lot of things, especially on the offensive side. Georgia Baseball is 7^th in batting average, 5^th in hits, and 1^st in home runs. They have 5 starting batters over .300 and six batters with 10+ homeruns for the season. Tre Phelps is rising high in the MLB draft boards, batting close to .400, 14 homeruns, and a slugging percentage of .770. Daniel Jackson is nearing .400 as well, leading the team with 16 home runs and a team-leading 52 RBI’s.

*Tre Phelps

Hunter Dietz will have his tallest task in game 1 against this team, in hopes of securing game 1. Dietz has had a high strikeout rate in his past 3 starts, and he will need to be a game manager with a good strikeout rate. If Dietz can limit the home runs and keep the ball in the park, he can manage the guys on base and limit runs. Arkansas Baseball will not be asking Dietz to throw 6 innings with only 2 earned, but maybe 6 innings with 4 to 5 earned runs. If Arkansas Baseball can secure game 1, then the home advantage really kicks into gear.

How can Arkansas Baseball win this series?

Georgia may have the top-hitting lineup in the SEC, but its pitching has not been great this year. Although ranked top 10 in the country on multiple offensive stats, Georgia is still ranked 20th in the NCAA RPI. The reason for their low RPI is their pitching. They rank 47^th in ERA and have difficulty with their starting pitching.

*Dylan Vique

Their headliner, Dylan Vigue, has a solid 2.63 ERA with 49 strikeouts in 41 innings pitched. For reference, Hunter Dietz has a 3.61 ERA with 78 strikeouts in 47 innings pitched. Joey Volchko is 2^nd in line with a 3.38 ERA and a similar 49 strikeouts in 45 innings pitched. After that, Georgia Baseball has difficulty finding their 3^rd starting pitcher. They have relied on bullpen games for game 3, and the game 3 starter has not gone more than 3 innings in the last two months.

Their coach, Wes Johnson, does not assign labels to each pitcher and rolls them out in different spots each week. The bullpen has not come through in big losses, where the top two pitchers start strong. During the Georgia vs Florida series, Volchko gave up only 1 run through 6 innings, only for the bullpen to give 6 runs in the 7^th inning.

*Coach Wes Johnson

Arkansas Baseball needs to take care of two important things: Get the series to game 3 (unless Arkansas can take the series in two) and get their starting pitchers out as quickly as they can. Do not go down in the count 0-2 and force low-pitch innings. If Arkansas Baseball can string hits like they have been doing in this 5-game win streak, they can score toe-to-toe with Georgia, while depleting their talent in the pitching bullpen.

Georgia Baseball heads to Fayetteville, Arkansas, this weekend for the matchup Thursday through Saturday. The weather looks rough, so I would expect delays here and there, and that could be an advantage for Arkansas Baseball at their park. Arkansas Baseball ranks 16^th in the country and 35^th in RPI. A series win could get Arkansas back in the top 10, and a better shot with a sweep. What Dave Van Horn needs to focus on is each batter or pitcher, one at a time. As always, Go Razorbacks.