NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The regular season of college baseball is coming to a close, and the conference tournaments will be here in less than two weeks. Arkansas Baseball has had its ups and downs, but they are playing some of its best ball lately. Dave Van Horn is still changing things up heading into the end of the season. That includes sending out Gabe Gaeckle as a starting pitcher in game 3 of the Ole Miss series.
The Ole Miss series was electric! They secured the victory on a walk-off 2-run home run in the bottom of the 9th, down by one. One of Arkansas Baseball’s strongest attributes is that they do not waver in the 2nd halves of games when they are down. I personally do not see any panic in the team or Dave Van Horn. Christian Turner hit the 2-run walk-off in the last series. Dave Van Horn sent him out for his first at-bat, and it paid off.
So, how far can Arkansas Baseball go in the postseason? The team’s foundation and talent are good enough to make it to the College World Series in Omaha. The pitching staff is very talented, and each pitcher has proven they can contribute in every single game. Let’s take a look at what the postseason could be like for Arkansas Baseball:
Could Arkansas Baseball host regionals?
Arkansas Baseball has hosted regionals 4 of the last 5 years, missing only 2022. Right now, Arkansas seems to be on the outside looking in when it comes to hosting regional play. There are potential negatives to hosting regionals. Primarily, regarding the next round, the super regionals.
The two final projected teams to host regionals are Oregon State and USC. I believe Oregon State has a better resume to host USC. USC is 0-8 in Quad 1, with a loss to Oregon State. Oregon State has better pitching and slightly better batting. Oregon State has had some tough losses, but its bigger wins supersede them.
Let’s say Arkansas is projected as a 2-seed. The teams projected above them as 2-seeds would be Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Nebraska, and Cincinnati. Arkansas Baseball just took out Ole Miss in a 3-game series. This weekend, they face off against Oklahoma. If Arkansas can handle Oklahoma firmly this weekend, there is a case to be made for hosting regionals again after the SEC tournament. That is because Oklahoma is an SEC opponent.
Does Arkansas want to host regionals?
College Baseball potentially has the most parity of any college sport. So, hosting regionals is such a big advantage. You should take each stage of the postseason at its current time. Arkansas Baseball is always best at home, and the left field wind helps Arkansas get balls out of the park. The only concern is that if Arkansas were to host a regional, it would be relegated to 16th seed status. Then, bound to play as the 1 seed in the super regionals.
So that raises the question: Would you rather try to tough it out away from Baum-Walker Stadium and get a potentially better matchup in the super regionals? Or would you rather play it safe and play the regionals at home, with a home game against UCLA in the super regionals? UCLA has been ranked 1st in the country for 13 straight weeks. They are a boulder picking up steam with nothing to stop them.
Right now, Arkansas Baseball is ranked 20-22 in postseason play. They line up as a No. 2 seed against teams like Alabama, Southern Mississippi, Mississippi State, and Florida State. This year, Arkansas Baseball took the series from Alabama and Mississippi State. Florida State had an easier schedule than Arkansas Baseball. They played only 14 Quad 1 games, compared to Arkansas’s 21. Southern Mississippi is an impressive team, but Arkansas weathered and tethered can take care of them in the regionals as well.
In this logic, Arkansas Baseball toughs it out and wins away from Baum-Walker. Now, they’re still looking at a tough matchup, but maybe not as tough as UCLA. UCLA is 44-4 on a tough top-40 schedule, going undefeated in their quad-1 wins. Continuing the trend of being ranked 20-22, the next matchup could be against teams like Auburn, UNC, and Georgia.
If you take away the 9th inning of game 3 of the Georgia series, Arkansas Baseball played Georgia very well. They took game 1 in a tough matchup, and Georgia got one back in game 2. Then, it was a high-scoring affair for both teams in game 3.
The series loss in Auburn actually helped Arkansas Baseball get out of its slump. Arkansas unexpectedly took game 2 of that series. Then went on a 6-game win streak, including a series sweep at Alabama’s park. UNC is beatable overall. They have a similar strength-of-schedule to Arkansas. However, Arkansas only played 14 Quad 1 games. 6 of its 9 losses came at home (which it would have to travel to again).
What should we expect over the next 2 weekends?
Oklahoma is a big series this weekend, as Oklahoma sneaked back into the top 25. They are floating as a higher 2-seed than Arkansas, and this series could very well determine where Arkansas’s brackets end up.
Oklahoma has had a tough schedule and fended for itself well, but they haven’t had a top-25 series win since early March. They are 7-8 on the road, and they will come to Fayetteville in a heavy environment, as it is the last home series of the year, and the state of Arkansas knows what this series means.
Any more drop in the Arkansas Baseball rankings will lead to a tougher regional matchup. All 4-seeds will be tough to play, and Arkansas can’t afford to head to the loser bracket if they lose the first game of regionals.
The best solution, in my opinion, would be to take this series, remain at the 20th rank in postseason play, and hope for a matchup against either a team Arkansas has already beaten in the regionals (Alabama, Mississippi State, etc), or a team that had a shaky strength of schedule, ready to be beaten by an SEC powerhouse.
If that could lead to a team like Auburn, UNC, Kansas, or Georgia (last option), then these Super Regional matchups will be a blood sport, with each team entering knowing that everything that happened before this matchup means nearly nothing. First and foremost, Oklahoma is traveling to Baum-Walker Stadium this weekend, Friday through Sunday, for Arkansas Baseball’s final home series. Dave Van Horn knows to take each game one at a time and await the SEC tournament that begins May 18th. As always, Go Hogs.
