NFL
By: Randall Slifer
NCAA Baseball released the regional brackets, and there was some controversy over some of the selections. Arkansas Baseball was part of the controversy after it was announced that they would not host the regionals this year, even though they had advanced to the SEC final. Arkansas Baseball managed to get past Tennessee, Texas, and Auburn in the tournament, which was a very impressive feat.
There is no time to complain about Arkansas Baseball not playing in Fayetteville, as they will travel to Kansas in the Lawrence Regional this weekend as one of the top 2-seeds in the postseason. While watching Selection Sunday and trying to look into the future, the best-case scenario was to avoid Texas, Georgia, and Florida if they advanced to the Super Regionals. Arkansas Baseball now has a path to Omaha through Kansas and Georgia Tech if they can advance to the Super Regionals.
The Lawrence Regional is considered one of the toughest regionals out of the 1st round of the postseason. Kansas earned the hosting job as the Big 12 champion, and Northeastern got its bid by winning the Coastal Athletic Association. Missouri State had an impressive RPI rank of 23 and split 2 games against Arkansas during the regular season.
Kansas should be disheartened that Arkansas Baseball was chosen for their bracket. Arkansas Baseball is playing its best ball right now despite losing Kuhio Aloy just about a month ago. They played the most Quad 1 games of any team this year, finishing with an impressive 16-12 record. The issue is they lost three Quad 4 wins during a slump, which I believe is a main factor in remaining a 2-seed.
Having one bracket with teams with RPIs of 19, 21, 23, and 88 is a scary group. As I always say, in a double-elimination tournament, the first win gives you such a big advantage. Winning the first game gives a better cushion for the rest of the tournament, and it allows you to manipulate your bullpen to have better pitchers than your opponent if it comes down to a game 3 rubber match in the regional final.
I will break down each Arkansas Baseball game, but let’s take a look at the regional as a whole:
How do the stats line up?
Let’s break down each team regarding stats to give an overview of what we will be looking at this weekend:
General + Defense
Stat (Rank) – Kansas – Arkansas – Missouri State – Northeastern
Record – 42-16 – 39-20 – 34-19 – 38-20
Strength of Schedule – 66 – 14 – 44 – 205
Quad 1 Record – 11-6 – 16-12 – 6-11 – 0-2
ERA – 5.33 (97) – 4.46 (33) – 6.00 (154) – 4.95 (65)
WHIP – 1.44 (63) – 1.33 (23) – 1.66 (188) – 1.36 (31)
One thing that stands out in this group is the strength of the schedule. Arkansas holds the 14th-toughest schedule, with the host outside the top 50. Missouri State gave itself a tougher schedule, and it was rewarded in the postseason.
Arkansas Baseball also has an advantage in pitching. Hunter Dietz was named to the All-SEC first team and is a semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award. Gabe Gaeckle is back to being a reliable starter, and Arkansas may have one of the top closers in Ethan McElvain. Now, let’s take a look at some offensive metrics:
Offense
Stat (Rank) – Kansas – Arkansas – Missouri State – Northeastern
BA – .289 (81) – .274 (175) – .298 (49) – .280 (131)
Slug % – .510 (25) – .482 (56) – .533 (11) – .435 (145)
Hits – 583 (31) – 532 (109) – 547 (76) – 535 (101)
Home Runs – 102 (16) – 95 (19) – 104 (14) – 58 (129)
Runs – 448 (33) – 420 (61) – 441 (36) – 428 (54)
Arkansas Baseball falls in these statistical categories, and it is at the expense of a big slump early in the year. They fell in home runs in comparison to the previous years, and some of their bats were cold most of the year. As previously stated, Arkansas Baseball has played the toughest schedule in this region by a sizable gap.
Missouri State is a heavy-hitting team with offensive power throughout its entire lineup. Teams will have to fight fire with fire by playing them and will expect to score 8+ runs if they face them. Kansas has a consistent offense backed by home runs, and hosting will help them maintain that consistency in regional play. Northeastern will have a tough task, but their pitchers can keep the game low-scoring, and hope to string hits to do their best in Lawrence.
This regional will be hard to predict, with two teams that both have resumes to get to Omaha and a 3rd team that could be a surprise at the Super Regionals. Let’s talk about an offensive player and a pitcher for each team that will need to be the most impactful in the Lawrence regional:
Kansas
Hitter: Tyson LeBlanc
Tyson LeBlanc is a dynamic hitter, consistently hitting over .300 throughout the season. He is hitting a whopping .678 slugging percentage with 21 home runs and a team-leading 60 RBI.
Pitcher: Dominic Voegele
Dominic Voegele is their ace pitcher, leading with 85 innings pitched and 108 strikeouts. Kansas will have the luxury of sending out Dominic in game 2, and if he pitches well, Kansas could be staring closely at the Super Regionals.
Arkansas
Hitter: Damian Ruiz
This may be a surprise with Helfrick, Kozeal, and Stewart sitting there, but Damian Ruiz is the straw that stirs in the offensive glass. Damian Ruiz was hurt while Arkansas Baseball was in its slump, and I believe Ruiz was a valid reason for the hitting woes. Damian Ruiz is patient at the plate, getting walked 34 times with a batting average of .315. Additionally, he leads the team in on-base percentage with .451 and is 16 for 17 in stolen bases. He is fast and smart, and he gives this offense energy, allowing the big hitter to step up and deliver RBIs.
Pitcher: Gabe Gaeckle
I am inclined to put Ethan McElvain here because a closer is very important in regional play. I put Gabe Gaeckle here because he is coming back into his own and pitching his best baseball right now. Dave Van Horn may pull the trigger and send Gabe Gaeckle out for game one, so he can save Hunter Dietz for a potential game two matchup versus Kansas. If Gabe Gaeckle can handle game 1, it would give Arkansas Baseball the advantage in game 2 versus the host.
Missouri State
Hitter: Curry Sutherland
Curry Sutherland is their most consistent hitter, batting .311 with a slugging percentage of .622. Consequently, he is leading the team in hits (61), tied for home runs (16), and 2nd in RBI (52). The offense in general is electric, but Curry’s consistency will be important in this regional play.
Pitcher: Jason Schaaf
Missouri State will need to win Game 1 if they want a chance at the Super Regionals. They will put their ace out against Arkansas in Schaaf. Schaaf has a 5.74 ERA with 62 strikeouts in 64 innings pitched. Missouri State will ask him to limit the runs, not throw shutout innings.
Northeastern
Hitter: Harrison Feinberg
Harrison Feinberg is an electric hitter, team-leading in hits (75), Runs (63), and slugging percentage (.599). In addition, he is the only batter with over 10 home runs (16) and is leading the team in RBIs (63)
Pitcher: Luc Rising
If Northeastern wants to upset Kansas in game one, Luc will need to bring his A-Game. He has posted a 3.24 ERA with a WHIP of 1.07. What he can get from Kansas is that he has struck out 80 batters in 77 innings pitched and has allowed only 4 home runs on the season. If anyone from Northeastern can stunt Kansas’ hitting, it’s Luc Rising (awesome baseball name, by the way).
The Lawrence Regional kicks off Friday and runs through the weekend, potentially into Monday. As of today, Arkansas Baseball is the slight favorite to win the regional at +140, with Kansas at +165, Missouri State at +475, and Northeastern at +750. The weather looks like it will hold up for the weekend. So, expect no delays as of now. NCAA Baseball may have the most parity in all of college sports, so get ready to see some upsets across the entire country this weekend. As always, go Razorbacks.
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