NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills suffered their first loss of the season in a rough divisional game at the new Highmark Stadium. Bills Mafia has started to panic, but they need to be more patient. Success can mask deficiencies, and going 3-0 early did just that. The defense needs time to grow, and the talent is there on the back end. The major issue is the disconnect between fans’ impatience and the decision to hire Joe Brady.
Hiring Joe Brady didn’t add any cushion to this team’s expectations. Putting the offensive coordinator at the head coaching position means the status quo on Super Bowl aspirations. Is that fair to Joe Brady? I believe it is, but it needs to have a little more wiggle room than Bills Mafia is giving him. Is it fair to Jim Leonhard? No. Bills Mafia and the Buffalo Bills wanted Jim Leonhard, and everyone is happy he is here. It is his first defensive coordinator position, and he needs to get his defense to understand his scheme pre-snap before they can truly shine.
The Buffalo Bills have back-to-back road games on the West Coast, and this may be a good thing for the team. For the next two weeks, they can focus on football only, and the defense can be hip to hip all day, every day. The first opponent on the docket is the LA Rams. Let’s dive into how this Bills team can take down the high-octane team like the Rams:
Can the defensive backs get better quickly?
The back-end coverage has been the defense’s Achilles’ heel. The outside corners are struggling to identify routes and are leaving easy pitch-and-catch throws for first downs. Max Hairston had a bad game against the Patriots, and Cole Bishop seems out of place trying to figure out his duty each rep.
Jim Leonhard has talked extensively about getting the defensive backs to know their role pre-snap in zone or man coverage based on wide receiver alignment. Defensive backs need to identify each wide receiver and communicate who is matching which receiver. Often, when three wide receivers are on one side, confusion over who carries the 1, 2, or 3 gets lost, leaving the easy intermediate throw open. Drake Maye abused the sail route and intermediate comebacks against Buffalo because the miscommunication between the cornerback and the nickel left one guy open.
Max Hairston was drafted for his ability to bite down on comebacks off the ball, and Igbinosun is great in man coverage. Jim Leonhard said Cole Bishop was playing too fast and needs to process the play before the snap. All these things are fixable, but they have a tall task with Davante Adams and Puka Nacua.
If the defensive backs can hold coverage for the first 2.5 seconds, they could get Matt Stafford into trouble. The Eagles played a lot of a 2-high shell to ensure Matt Stafford could not throw the deep ball. Like Josh Allen, Matt Stafford has forced the ball downfield anyway. This year, on balls thrown 20+ air yards, Matt Stafford is completing 35% and has 4 interceptions. These deep shots have come from Matt Stafford forcing the ball. He has had over 3.25 seconds to throw on these attempts, yet he still threw those picks. If the cornerbacks, nickels, and linebackers can hold their coverage and force Matt Stafford to scramble, the safeties can bite down on a route and force turnovers.
Can the defensive line win the game?
The horrific quote that popped into my head while watching the Patriots game is: “The hardest workers get the heaviest workload.” The Buffalo Bills accounted for 27 pressures against the Patriots and are close to a 50% pressure rate on passing downs. Unfortunately, they only amassed 1 sack against Drake Maye. The game was close enough that if they had gotten home 4 or 5 times at a Pressure-to-sack ratio of 20-25%, Buffalo could have won. But is that fair? The back 7 could have done anything in coverage to pull a crucial interception, and that would be pulling their weight. The hardest workers get the heaviest workload.
The defensive line can ultimately win this game. Against the Eagles, the Rams scored only 10 points in 55 minutes on Sunday. The Buffalo Bills defensive line has a top-5 pressure rate, and they hit the quarterback 36 times in four games. One brutal thing is the rushing ability of the quarterbacks they have faced.
Justin Herbert and Drake Maye avoid sacks very differently than Matt Stafford. Drake Maye picked up 4 crucial first downs on scrambles, and Matt Stafford will not be able to do that. This lets all rushers flood Stafford into the pocket, without worrying as much about leaving a gap open for him to run.
If the defensive line can bring quick pressure, it can alleviate intermediate coverage and force Stafford to throw quick shots that don’t result in 1st downs. If the defense can get Stafford to 3rd down consistently, they can either stop the short run (as they do well) or force Stafford to throw the ball away and create a turnover when the defensive backs can recover.
How will the offense look without DJ Moore?
DJ Moore left the Patriots game re-aggravating his shoulder on a scramble throw. They say it is not a long-term injury, but he should be out at least through the bye week. How will Joe Brady adjust to ensure they can score enough if it turns into a shootout?
With DJ Moore out, the Buffalo Bills should give Skyler Bell his debut. This leaves Kincaid, Shakir, Bell, Palmer, and Coleman as the main receiving threats. This is very reminiscent of the Buffalo Bills in 2024 and 2025. Will the Rams play more man coverage against Buffalo, which answered last year’s offense’s stunt?
If the Rams play heavy man coverage to limit the passing game, Joe Brady will need to revert to heavy personnel. One interesting thing about Joe Brady’s play calling is abandoning 13 personnel. From week 1 to week 4, Buffalo went from running 13 personnel 40% of the time to only 13% in week 4. The offense didn’t look as explosive as it did in the first two weeks. The number 1 priority should be getting James Cook going early and often in heavy personnel to open up the passing game later on in the 2nd half.
Joe Brady will need to use heavy motion and personnel to find a mismatch for Dalton Kincaid. Dalton Kincaid only had 2 targets last game, and that is unacceptable. Condensed formations will let Dalton Kincaid line up with a linebacker like Omar Speights. Omar Speights has been rough in coverage, and Kincaid has a size advantage.
Using the boundary, Keon Coleman has begun his breakout season. Bills Mafia hopes it continues, and I believe it will. His catches aren’t just scramble-drill back-shoulder throws. He is running better routes, and the team is using him to his strengths. With DJ Moore out, there should be no restrictions on Keon Coleman. I believe he should get 10 targets this game.
The Buffalo Bills are back on prime time versus the Rams at SoFi Stadium. They play Monday Night Football at 8:15 EST/ 7:15 CST. Vegas has only the LA Rams as -2.5 favorites, which means Vegas is giving them points because they are at home. Will being away from Buffalo help this team congeal? I do believe it will, and the defense certainly needs it. As always, go Bills.
