Buffalo Bills Home Opener: Detroit Lions

By: Randall Slifer

The Buffalo Bills had an electric start to the season, going 1-0 in a shootout against the Houston Texans. The Bills face a gauntlet of 5 weeks, starting with the league’s best defense and ending with the Super Bowl favorites. The Buffalo Bills face off against the Detroit Lions to start week 2 on Thursday Night Football. The Lions hold on to a win against the New Orleans Saints in overtime, so one team will take its first loss on Thursday. Let’s dive into Buffalo and predict how this Thursday Night Football game may play out:

Did Josh Allen have a restrictor plate on him?

Joe Brady had an interesting start to his NFL head coaching career. Head coach Joe Brady scored only 3 points less on Sunday than Sean McDermott’s teams scored in total over the last two years. This begs the question: Did Sean McDermott force a restrictor plate on Josh Allen?

As of today, the answer is yes. Josh Allen’s average depth of target last year was a measly 5.8 yards, while on Sunday it was 12.8 yards. In 2025, Josh Allen threw 2 balls over 20+ air yards, compared to 7 in 2026. This may be the addition of DJ Moore, but that quick of a change against the top defense seems more like a shift in game plan than anything.

I expect this trend to continue. Detroit Lions defensive backfield is the weakest part of their entire team. In Week one versus the Saints, their outside corners and nickels averaged an 82.5% reception rate, giving up 203 yards and 2 touchdowns. The rest of the team didn’t help much either, allowing Tyler Shough to throw for 410 yards and 3 touchdowns (2 interceptions). On balls thrown 10+ air yards, he was 11/17 for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns.

This may be an overreaction, but as of today, the Buffalo Bills don’t seem to have a flaw in their offense. When fully healthy, this is Josh Allen’s best supporting cast in his NFL career. There will be consistent mismatches throughout this matchup against Detroit. Here are some major mismatches I expect against this Detroit defense:

Dalton Kincaid (6’3 ½ 246lb) vs Roger McCreary (5’11 190lb)

DJ Moore (6’0 200lb – 4.42 40-yard dash) vs Rock Ya-Sin (5’11 192lb – 4.51 40-yard dash)

Joe Brady uses heavy personnel (12 and 13) to create mismatches, and I expect him to find them. If the linebackers commit to James Cook, expect McCreary to follow Dalton Kincaid and make easy red-zone touchdowns. DJ Moore will be the most productive on deep passes. Josh Allen proved he is comfortable throwing YOLO balls to DJ Moore in week one, but this time Moore may be alone with 4-5 yards of separation against these Detroit defensive backs.

Will the defense grow in such a short week?

CJ Stroud had a good game throwing the ball, completing 26/38 for 274 yards and 2 touchdowns. He had decent pocket presence (aside from the fumbles) and could step into the pocket and deliver a good ball. The defense had several plays where it was clear players were missing their assignments or duties.

Jim Leonhard said he believed the tape showed only minor details that need to be fixed to get everyone on the same page. I tend to agree. When the defense played as a unit, players firmly carried guys in their zone and passed them off well, which led to 4th-down punts. Penalties were a major issue, and if they cut those back, the Texans offense could have been limited to under 25 points.

The issue is that this is a short week, and the Buffalo Bills are facing a dynamic offense. The defensive line will have their hands full with Jamyr Gibbs, and creating pressure. Jim Leonhard blitzed at 24.7% in Week 1, which is around his season average. The question is whether he brings more blitz against an immobile Jared Goff.

Goff is known to get into quicksand, recording 23 games with 2 or more interceptions. The question is how Jim Leonhard will get Jared Goff there. The Lions offense is dynamic past Gibbs. Penei Sewell is one of the best left tackles, and they have Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Sam LaPorta. Does Leonhard trust the coverage, or will he need to bring the heat? In 2025, Jared Goff threw more interceptions when not blitzed than when blitzed.

If Leonhard wants to turn the ball over on coverage, he will need to keep his defense disciplined and patient. The Detroit Lions are one of the top teams that put their quarterback under center. In 2025, Jared Goff had an adjusted completion percentage of 81% while using play action, throwing a 4.5 TD:INT ratio. If the linebackers and nickel Dee Alford take even 1 step forward and bite on play action, the middle of the field will be wide open. Jared Goff is lethal in the intermediate and middle of the field, throwing 181 for 238, 2,372 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2025. Now, if you can disguise the coverage, Jared Goff threw 7 interceptions in the middle of the field and only 1 interception elsewhere in 2025.

The Buffalo Bills open their brand-new stadium for Thursday Night Football against the Detroit Lions at 8:15 EST/7:15 CST. The forecast looks like clear skies at kickoff. Vegas favors Buffalo at home by -4.5, and the over/under is 53.5 points. Scoring should be plentiful, so if I were to make one bet on this game, it would be the over. As always, go Bills.