NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills have a three-game home-field stretch, and the 2nd opponent is the LA Chargers. The Bills are hot, and Josh Allen is starting on a heater. Josh Allen is on pace for 76 touchdowns, and the offense looks to have no weak link.
Meanwhile, the LA Chargers are off to a rough start. Going 0-2 in their first 2 winnable games is demoralizing. They have a stretch of difficult games coming up, starting in Buffalo. The LA Chargers will be on a mission come Sunday, and their roster is still playoff caliber. Let’s dive into this matchup and how Buffalo can reach 3-0 for the 3rd year in a row:
Will Injuries change the Chargers’ game plan?
The marriage of Mike McDaniels and Jim Harbaugh seems to have gotten off to a rough start. Mike McDaniels likes to open up the passing game and let the quarterback throw the ball 35+ times, while Harbaugh likes to play heavy personnel and establish the run. Last week versus the Raiders, the Chargers used a lot of 13 personnel and 22 personnel involving Alec Ingold. They used Alec Ingold a lot like the 49ers used Kyle Juszczyk. They used him heavily in standard blocking schemes and in the banana motion (start staggered in-line and motion to the fullback position to block the other side of the line).
Unfortunately, the Chargers had to put David Njoku and Charlie Kolar on injured reserve after Sunday’s game. This leaves just one tight end on the roster, Oronde Gadsden. Oronde Gadsden is a great pass-catching tight end, but not much of a blocker. This could lead to more of a McDaniels-style game versus a Jim Harbaugh-type game.
They will still use Alec Ingold and 22 personnel, but it may be more obvious that they are running the ball. Justin Herbert threw for 27 times each of the first two games of the season. There were only 5 games last year where he threw under 27 times. Will they let Justin Herbert go air raid in Buffalo?
Ladd McConkey will be 100% come Sunday, but he was limited to under 50% of offensive snaps last week due to a rib injury. Behind him are Tre Harris, Quentin Johnston, and newly signed Marquez Valdes-Scantling. It doesn’t sound enticing to go air raid in an away game, but what choice do they have?
The Buffalo Bills’ defensive weakness has been their secondary. Christian Benford has faced his toughest tests in the first two weeks, but he has given up a lot of yards. Cole Bishop is still learning his role in the new scheme, but he has had 10 days to study film and get it down. It is not about talent on the back end, but just understanding Leonhard’s scheme.
Christian Benford could lock down Quentin Johnston with ease, and Maxwell Hairston would have an easy job with Tre Harris. The issue is the matchup at Ladd McConkey. Dee Alford has shown good flashes, but has been burned in the first two weeks. Can the linebackers and slot defender stop Ladd McConkey? They don’t need to keep him under 50 yards, but they do need to keep him under 125.
Can the Buffalo Bills defensive line keep up this pace?
The brightest light on this Buffalo Bills defense has been the defensive line. Greg Rousseau is the defensive player of the year right now, and Deone Walker may be Buffalo’s best 4th-round pick since Andre Reed (1985). Bradley Chubb is a menace on the other side of Rousseau, and DeWayne Carter is the nose tackle we may have been looking for all this time.
The LA Chargers’ interior offensive line will likely include Trevor Penning, Cole Strange, and rookie Jake Slaughter. Jim Leonhard will be salivating at the chance to create interior pressure. Now, the Chargers have two good tackles in Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Jim Leonhard will have a game plan for that.
Greg Rousseau can handle Joe Alt 1-on-1, but I don’t think the game plan will be to get the tackles in 1-on-1 matchups with Buffalo’s outside linebackers. Jim Leonhard ranks 3rd in the league in calling defensive line stunts, behind only the Seattle Seahawks and the San Francisco 49ers (good company). I expect Leonhard to stunt Chubb and Rousseau to the inside, and bring Deone Walker and DeWayne Carter outside to confuse the line early. When a traditional rush or blitz comes, it will knock them off their anchor and leave them unprepared. Let’s not forget how clever Michael Hoecht is in his pass rush (SQUIRREL, shoutout @Pro__Ant). If Ed Oliver gets the green light, the Chargers’ offensive line may be in trouble.
Can Buffalo establish the run?
The LA Chargers are ranked first in yards per carry allowed. Through the first two games, this is what their run defense looks like:
YPC: 2.8 (1st)
TDs: 1 (T-2nd)
Yards: 173 (7th)
Rush 1st downs: 9 (8th)
Very good stats for a team that faced Jeremiyah Love and Ashton Jeanty in their first two matchups. James Cook is a more proven back, and the Buffalo Bills’ blocking scheme is more advanced than the Raiders’ and the Cardinals’. Not to mention, the LA Chargers may be without Dalvin Tomlinson.
I don’t believe Joe Brady will force the run, but he will try to show he can get the running backs going. Jim Harbaugh is familiar with heavy personnel and establishing the run, so he will be prepared for this moment. The issue is that the Bills’ offensive line may be the best in the league. James Cook will get yards whether it is 60 or 100+, but the running backs will be an integral part of the offense.
Ty Johnson will make his comeback on Sunday, and he is a big piece against the LA Chargers. Last week in the Chargers vs. Raiders game, Ashton Jeanty had 7 targets. He dropped 3, but it worked against the Chargers’ defense. Every time Jeanty dropped a pass, he was in open field, ready to pick up 10+ yards after the catch and potentially turn it into a very explosive play.
James Cook and Ty Johnson can open up the screen game and quick Texas routes to set up the run, and vice versa. I expect Joe Brady to get into his bag this game on short passes, and then let it loose on deep balls when Derwin James is constantly playing the line of scrimmage.
The Buffalo Bills take on the LA Chargers this Sunday at 1:00 EST/12:00 CST. Vegas has the Buffalo Bills favored by -7.5, with an over/under of 50.5. The LA Chargers have scored only 14 points in each of their first two games, but the Bills have scored over 35 points in their first two. Do I believe the Bills will score over 35 points? I believe they will score over 30, and I do not think the LA Chargers can get there. As always, Go Bills.
