NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills are on another hot start, beginning the season 3-0. Before the season began, the first 6 games were widely considered the toughest part of their schedule. Some teams have crumbled and not shown what they are capable of yet, but it’s a different style of difficult.
Each team in this early-season schedule has had to bring their absolute best to flip the script on their early start. The Lions needed to show they have the juice to take their division, but they allowed 41 points. The Chargers were discussed as AFC West contenders, and they needed a win in Buffalo. The Patriots and Drake Maye are in serious quicksand, suggesting last year was a schedule-merchant team. The Patriots will come desperate to win on Sunday.
Let’s take a look at how the Buffalo Bills will not allow the New England Patriots to make their comeback just yet:
Can Drake Maye make a comeback this week?
Drake Maye is having the worst season you can have as a quarterback on a team that just won the AFC East. In the first 3 games, Drake Maye has thrown for 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions. He also has 2 fumbles this year. Drake Maye is a good quarterback, so let’s call it as it is. Drake Maye is in quicksand, and he cannot get out of his head.
The Buffalo Bills cannot sit back and expect Drake Maye to make mistakes casually anymore. Mike Vrabel is panicking with their start, and he will want to fix it quickly. The question is: does he have the weapons to do it?
New England’s two major running backs are averaging 3.9 yards per carry and have only scored 1 touchdown. AJ Brown is out for week 4 with a hamstring injury, and Stefon Diggs is on the Commanders. This leaves Drake Maye with Romeo Doubs, Mack Hollins, Pop Douglas, and Hunter Henry. Buffalo’s back seven can cover these wide receivers even if Christian Benford cannot play with his toe injury.
One matchup I am very interested in seeing is Davison Igbinosun against Mack Hollins. The measurements and styles are what intrigue me:
Mack Hollins – 6’4 221lb 33.25″ arms
Davison Igbinosun – 6’2 189lb 32.88″ arms
Mack Hollins is not a fantastic route runner, and Davison Igbinosun is best in man coverage. Mack Hollins led New England’s receiving corps last week with 87 yards. I believe this is Davison Igbinosun’s breakout game. Mack Hollins’ size and length won’t match Igbinosun’s, since they’re similar. Igbinosun’s physicality will let him stay in line, and Mack Hollins doesn’t have the route-running chops to burn him.
Mike Vrabel may develop a risk-averse plan with Drake Maye, but the running backs will not be able to carry the load for the Patriots offense. Drake Maye’s interceptions are not great. He is playing like a below-average bomb diffuser . A sign on the blue wire tells him to cut it, but he still cut the red wire, and the building blew up. Drake Maye’s decision-making and vision will get him out of his slump, and he will need to take check-downs after check-down instead of taking deep shots. Can the Patriots beat the Bills on check-downs and risk-averse decisions? It will be tough when the Buffalo Bills are leading the league in total touchdowns (13) and points per game (33.7).
Can the defensive line stay hot?
The major difference between McDermott’s and Jim Leonhard’s defense is the defensive line. Leonhard is turning Greg Rousseau into a defensive player of the year, when he couldn’t get double-digit sacks in McDermott’s defense. Leonhard ranks 3rd in stunt percentages, and he is throwing different looks week to week. One thing Bills Mafia has been looking for is a blitz that involves defensive backs. Is it necessary right now? The Bills are creating pressure by rushing 4 guys, which makes it far easier on the back 7 to cover. That certainly worked against the LA Chargers last week.
The defensive line matchups are enticing. Their interior offensive line is hurting, so they’re starting a 3rd guy at right guard this Sunday. Ed Oliver and Deone Walker should have opportunities to slash through the line and get some interior sack production. The biggest matchup that I am looking at? Will Campbell vs. Greg Rousseau. Greg Rousseau typically comes from the right side of the line, but this week he should come from the left. Not only is Greg Rousseau playing out of his mind, but it is also a heavy mismatch in pass rushing. Here is the tape:
Greg Rousseau – 6’6 ” 266 lb 34.375″ arms 11.125″ hands
Will Campbell – 6’5 ½ 319lb 32.625″ arms 9.5″ hands
Don’t let anyone fool you; arm length matters at offensive tackle. Some folks may take it too seriously, but it still matters. This length difference can give Rousseau a huge advantage in his bull rush and could consistently put Will Campbell in the dirt. One of Rousseau’s best features? Hand fighting. If Will Campbell gets Rousseau on the first move, Rousseau’s hand fighting can overtake Will Campbell, and he will be off to the races to get to Drake Maye. I don’t want to hyperbolize, but Greg Rousseau may exceed his regular-season sack record on Sunday, and we are only in week 4 of the NFL season.
Will Josh Allen get back to limiting turnovers?
Every year, Josh Allen has a game where he looks at his stat line and shakes his head in disbelief. This year, the difference is that the Buffalo Bills pulled out the win. In the McDermott era, this would typically be a loss. Josh Allen gets to move on with a win.
The biggest difference from Week 1 to Week 3 for Josh Allen was that the LA Chargers played coverages that did not allow Josh Allen to throw the deep ball. When Josh Allen dropped back, here are the top 3 coverages per week he faced (percentages are based on full-game coverage metrics):
Week 1: Cover 3 (46%), Cover 1 (31.3%), Cover 2 (9%)
Week 2: Cover 3 (55%), Cover 2 (18.4%), Cover 1 (7.9%)
Week 3 (LA): Cover 6 (32.3%), Cover 3 (25.8%), Cover 1 (16%)
As you can see, LA blanketed the backfield with Cover 6 and Cover 3. They dared Josh Allen to throw the deep ball, and he did, while throwing two interceptions (1 should not count, but the coverage still had DJ in double coverage). On balls thrown 10 air yards or more, Josh Allen went from:
Week 1: 77% Completion
Week 2: 66% Completion
Week 3: 32% Completion
They took away Josh Allen’s deep ball, and it did work. Joe Brady adjusted by the 4th quarter. Joe Brady decided to run the ball down LA’s throat, and James Cook ended up with 150+ rushing yards. Josh Allen and Joe Brady will need to understand that heavy personnel, running the ball, and screen passes will be necessary to bring more defenders to the line of scrimmage. Josh Allen cannot force the ball downfield, but they can force the defense to come down to the line of scrimmage to open up the deep ball. This will get Josh Allen back to MVP status.
Does everyone know who did this to Joe Brady’s name card at the AFC coaches media day? Mike Vrabel. Sure, reports say that Joe Brady laughed, but I would tend to believe Joe Brady did not forget. Does Josh Allen remember the Drake Maye MVP talk and how the Patriots were being crowned as top of the AFC East after last year? I am sure both Joe Brady and Josh Allen have some personal fire heading into this matchup.
The Buffalo Bills face off against the New England Patriots on Sunday at 1:00 EST/12:00 CST. The skies are clear, and the temperature is great for fall, so it should be a great game to attend. Vegas has the Buffalo Bills favored by 6.5 points because it’s a divisional matchup. Will the Buffalo Bills start in the new stadium 3-0? I believe they will get there and begin the season 4-0.
