NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The NFL season has begun, and the Buffalo Bills have a foe who has tormented them recently. They begin their Super Bowl journey against the Houston Texans in Houston. This is the 3rd year in a row the Buffalo Bills have played in Houston, and they are 0-2.
Houston’s defense can win games outright by itself, and CJ Stroud just bet on himself to earn 60 million dollars per year by the end of the season. Do I think that will happen? Unfortunately, there is a good possibility. The next paid quarterback doesn’t need to be the best; that is just how the market works.
Week one may be a best-case scenario for the Buffalo Bills playing Houston. Jim Leonhard has completely changed Buffalo’s defensive scheme, which gives Houston’s offense little film to study before the matchup. Buffalo’s injury report listed only three players, and it looks like they could be missing one or zero players come Sunday. Let’s take a look at how Buffalo should approach this matchup:
Jim Leonhard needs to come out aggressive.
The biggest difference between Sean McDermott’s and Jim Leonhard’s defenses is their base approach. Sean McDermott plays a passive type of defense and looks to observe and adjust as the game progresses. The issue with this type of defense against a Houston defense is playing from behind.
In the last two matchups against Houston, their offense scored 17 points in the 1st half in 2024 and 20 points in the 1st half in 2025. The Houston Texans defense allowed only 21 points per game in 2024 and 17 points per game in 2025. The Buffalo Bills would already be in too large a hole offensively against the top defense in the NFL.
Jim Leonhard plays a more attack-style defense, showing frequent 5-man pressures while disguising his blitzes and coverage pre-snap. The Houston Texans offensive line is below average, led by Airontae Ersery and rookie Keylan Rutledge. Jim Leonhard should be able to bring pressure, and he should do it often.
Packaging frequent blitzes and pulling back into coverage on certain 3rd downs should be the ticket to get CJ Stroud to turn the ball over. Stroud’s post-snap reads are one of his weakest links. Getting Stroud to think blitz and pull back 8 into coverage can get Stroud to throw easy interceptions (13 in 2025) when he is going for a big-time throw. When the defense brings disguised blitzes, CJ Stroud’s pocket awareness can fail, causing him to miss the free rusher and fumble behind the line of scrimmage (7 in 2025).
The game will be won in the trenches.
Last year, the Houston Texans pressured Josh Allen 33 times and sacked him 8 times in one game! That is an impossible game to win, but they still lost by only 4 points. The Texans defense can pressure without blitzing, and that’s the most terrifying thing about it.
Can the Buffalo offensive tackles hold up against their 4-man pass rush? Dion Dawkins allowed 6 pressures and 2 sacks against the Texans last year. This may have been a wake-up call to Dion, as he made it his mission to drop 30 pounds to get lighter on his feet for quick pass rushers like Danielle Hunter.
Spencer Brown allowed 7 pressures and gave up 1 sack and 1 QB hit last year. One of the most underrated aspects of Will Anderson Jr’s game is his intelligence. Will Anderson Jr. learned Josh Allen’s tendencies in motion and cadence, so he was able to jump the snap. This led to Spencer Brown starting from behind frequently off the snap. Will Anderson’s get-off speed, matched with his timing, let him leverage Spencer’s outside shoulder and win the rep. Josh Allen will need to be wary of his pre-snap mannerisms, motions, and timing to ensure Will Anderson isn’t the first one in Buffalo’s backfield.
On Buffalo’s side, they are operating in a different system, along with a healthy Ed Oliver. The Texans offensive line will not have much film to see what the new defensive line looks like, but Jim Leonhard will be looking to create 1-on-1s for Ed Oliver. Ed Oliver’s most likely 1-on-1 matchup? A rookie in Keylan Rutledge. Greg Rousseau’s length, and now coming from the wide-9 stance, will wreak havoc on right tackle Trent Brown, and Bradley Chubb will use his power to close the pocket. Interior pass rush can reign supreme for the Buffalo Bills in week one, and Jim Leonhard can make it happen.
Can the Buffalo Bills’ offense put up 20+ points?
In the last two matchups against the Houston Texans, the Buffalo Bills have scored 19 points and 20 points in each matchup. That is not a bad score by any means, but getting to 24 points is a cushion they could use. The 2 big differences will be adding DJ Moore and field position.
Last year, Josh Allen had no pass catchers who could separate in man coverage. This forced Joe Brady’s hand in his play calling and limited his playbook (It was still a poorly called game). Joe Brady put out 5-man protections with no extra help on a defensive line that brings nightmares to quarterbacks and offensive linemen. Some of that was because of the pass catchers. Josh Allen needed multiple options out there in obvious passing situations. If you have two wide receivers run routes, but neither can beat man coverage, you’re left with nothing. The idea is to throw out more to give someone a chance to get open.
DJ Moore is the best man separating wide receiver Josh Allen has had since Stefon Diggs. This gives the ability to throw a tight end or two on the line and help block Will Anderson Jr and Danielle Hunter. In addition, Buffalo has a healthy Dalton Kincaid and Josh Palmer in this matchup as well. The Houston Texans don’t change their defensive game plan because they’ve been so dominant, but they will need to account for more offensive firepower than they did the last two years.
A big factor in last year’s loss was field position. The Houston Texans punted the ball five times in the last matchup. 4 out of those 5 punts resulted in Buffalo starting inside their own 20-yard line. It is difficult to go 80 full yards against a defense so dominant. The Buffalo Bills had 12 drives offensively and only made it to the red zone twice (0-2 in the red zone).
Once offenses get close to midfield, the Texans like to open up their blitz packages. They want offenses to fail on 1st down and blitz on 2nd down. This leads to offenses with obvious 3rd-and-long passing situations, and they can rush 4 and cover with 7. Joe Brady will need to consistently give Josh Allen two options per play to keep the ball moving downfield, and Josh Allen will need to make the right reads pre- and post-snap. At worst, evening out field position and ensuring CJ Stroud starts inside the 20-yard line gives the offense a chance to consistently start around the 35-40-yard line instead of inside the 20.
The Buffalo Bills face off against the Houston Texans at Reliant Stadium Sunday at 1:00 EST/12:00 CST. The stadium is indoors, so weather will not be a factor. Vegas favors Buffalo by -1.5 as an away opponent, with an over/under of 48.5. I think the Buffalo Bills will get it done early, with major factors including a new defensive scheme and the addition of DJ Moore. Final prediction? 21-13 Buffalo. As always, Go Bills.
