NFL
Saturday Games:
Indianapolis Colts @ Buffalo Bills (-7) O/U 51.5 – 1:05pm – CBS
The Bills enter the NFL playoffs scorching hot riding a 6-game winning streak and their last loss was on a Hail Mary from Kyle Murray on November 15. The Buffalo Bills have scored an average of 34 points per game in their last 6 games and the defense have only allowed 18.3 points a game during that stretch. This Saturday will also mark a first this season as the Bills will allow 6,700 fans into the game. The Bills have not hosted a home playoff in 25 years, and you know the bills mafia will be jacked up for this game. The Colts are back in the playoffs for the first time in 2 years and have an uphill battle facing Josh Allen and the red-hot Buffalo Bills offense. The Colts defense in the first nine games of the season was statistically the NFL’s best: 1st in total yards (290.4), 3rd against the run (91.8), 2nd against the pass (198.7), 4th in scoring (19.7). But over the last seven games, the Colts are ranked in the bottom third, or worse, in several significant categories: 24th in total yards (385.7), 31st against the pass (313.3), and tied for 22nd in scoring (26.5). That trend will have to change if Colts stand a chance. The colts defense needs to get after Josh Allen who is making his first NFL playoff start and this decade NFL QBS are 9-15 in their first NFL playoff start. A very scary trend for Josh Allen. Also, since the 2012-2013 NFL playoffs the wild card round team that had the best ATS record (Bills 11-5 ATS) during the regular season is 1-6-1 ATS. All signs point to Buffalo in this spot and with 70% of the money on the Bills, I’ll go opposite and take the Colts.
Lean: Colts +7
Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-4) O/U 42 – 4:40 pm – FOX
Both of these teams come limping into the NFL playoffs. The rams have question marks at quarterback- will it be Jared Goff or John Wolford under center for the Rams offense on Saturday. Seattle’s sack leader Jamal Adams is also questionable with a shoulder injury. The Seahawks defense really came together the last stretch of the season holding teams below 20 points in five of the last six games. The Rams took the first matchup 23-16, while the Seahawks won the rematch 20-9. The Under has hit in 11 of the Rams last 13 games and the under has hit in 7 of Seattle’s last 8 games. This is another game where all signs point to the Under, but the total is ticking up at some books, and with 63% of the money on the Under, I’ll fade the public again in this spot.
Bet: Rams/Seahawks Over 42
Washington Football Team @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) O/U 45.5 – 8:15 pm – NBC
The Golden rule of sports betting is never to bet against Tom Brady. In his last 31 games as a touchdown favorite or more, he is 22-8-1 ATS and 9-4 ATS in his previous 13 contests as a playoff favorite. At age 43 Brady’s 40 touchdown passes were his second-most ever in a single season with a brand-new offense at that. During Tampa’s 4 game winning streak to close out the season, the team averaged 37.0 points per game and outscored its opponents by an average of 18.3 points per game. Also, the Tampa defense is no slouch either. Expect Washington running back Antonio Gibson to have some trouble against a Tampa run defense that only allowed 80.6 yards per game this year. The one lone bright spot for Washington was its defense allowed 17 points or fewer in all 7 of its victories this season and won 4 out 5 on the road to finish the season. This defense with stars Chase Young and Montez Sweat makeup one of the league’s most lethal pass-rushing duo’s and will get after Brady in the pocket. I expect this one to be low scoring and jumped on the Under earlier this week. Best of Luck!!
Bet: Under 45.5 (-110)
Sunday Games
Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans (+3.5) O/U 54.5 – 1:05pm –ABC
In last year’s Divisional playoff game, Jackson had 365 passing yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs in the Titans’ dominant 28-12 victory. The Titans this year did an effective job keeping Lamar Jackson in check with Jackson only throwing for 186 yards with a touchdown, interception in Tennessee’s 30-24 overtime victory. The Ravens come into the playoffs on a 5-game winning streak averaging 37.2 points per game and could be argued as the hottest team coming into the playoffs. The Titans defense has been a problem all season long. The Titans rank 29th against the pass and 19th against the run. I see a ton of points put up this game. I’ll roll with the Over in this one.
Bet: Over 54.5
Chicago Bears @ New Orleans Saints (-9.5) O/U 47.5 – 4:40pm – CBS
People may have forgotten that the Chicago Bears took the Saints into Overtime in Week 8 and came up short losing 26-23. But a lot has changed since then. The Saints offense is starting to really click at the right time. In the last 3 games, the Saints have scored 29, 52, and 33 points. This is also not that same Bears ferocious defense we have seen the past couple of years. Since the bears Week 11 bye, they have been allowing more than 30 points four times in the final six games. I look for points galore in the dome on Sunday.
Bet: Over 47.5
Cleveland Browns @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) O/U 47 – 8:15pm – NBC
The Browns finally make their return to the NFL playoffs since 2002 and will be without most of their head coaching staff for Covid reasons. But that’s not going to stop these two teams from having an old-fashioned AFC North slugfest. The Steelers come into the matchup losing four of their last 5 games while starting the season 11-0. Also, the Steelers offense has been sputtering during that time. Ben Roethlisberger’s completion rate on passes of 15-plus air yards of 37.1% was 8th-worst in the NFL among quarterbacks. Baker Mayfield is playing phenomenal football this year throwing 11 touchdowns against one interception in the last nine games of the season. Also, combine that with the duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt on the ground will keep this game close with the Steelers.
Bet: Cleveland +6
Best of luck on all your bets this weekend – BTL
