NFL
By: Randall Slifer
Arkansas Baseball starts the regionals in Lawrence against a familiar foe. The first game of the regional play is the most important, so you can dictate your bullpen and how you approach each game. If teams lose game 1 and immediately go into the loser’s bracket, you will play 5 games over the weekend to reach the Super Regionals. Teams will need to win Saturday, 2 games on Sunday, and the rubber match on Monday.
Arkansas Baseball and Missouri State played twice in the regular season and split the series 1-1. Arkansas lost to Missouri State during a 1-6 slump, missing Damian Ruiz in a 10-inning game, 15-14. The Arkansas win came about 3 weeks later, after they got their mojo back and went 12-4 in dominant form. Let’s take a look at some of the key factors for Arkansas Baseball to take the most important game 1 win of the regionals:
Who are the starting pitchers?
Arkansas Baseball faces a tough decision in Game 1. Hunter Dietz is the safer approach, but game two may be tougher against Kansas. Saving Hunter Dietz for game 2 carries some risk, but I believe the reward is worth it.
Gabe Gaeckle has gotten his arm back, and Dave Van Horn should start Gaeckle in game 1 of the regionals. He has postseason experience and will know the task at hand. Hunter Dietz will be informed that they need his arm for the big matchup in game 2, so this will not be a slight on Hunter, but a more courageous start to begin his postseason. Let’s take a look at Gaeckle’s last four games he pitched:
Game 3 Start vs Ole Miss:
4 IP, 2 ERA, 5 K, 1 Walk
Game 2 Start vs Oklahoma:
4.2 IP, 3 ERA, 4 K, 2 Walks
Game 2 Start vs Kentucky:
5.1 IP, 2 ERA, 7 SO, 3 Walks
SEC Tournament vs Texas:
6 IP, 0 ERA, 9 K, 1 Walk
Gaeckle has earned the game 1 start, and Gaeckle is a pitching key that can unlock this team to reach the Super Regionals.
Missouri State will need to put its ace out in game 1, hoping to start from an advantageous spot. In the 12-4 loss against Arkansas, Missouri State used one of their main starting pitchers, Brock Lucas. In this matchup, I believe they send out Jason Schaaf.
Schaaf is posting a 5.74 ERA with a 1.71 WHIP. He leads the team in strikeouts-to-walk ratio and pitched a complete game. He does give up a lot of hits and runs, but Missouri State’s pitching is not its strength. Missouri State will look to Schaff to get Arkansas Baseball back to swinging outside the zone, and hope they do not have patience at the plate.
Can Arkansas keep up with Missouri State’s bats?
Missouri State’s offense is very impressive. They are 49th in batting average, 36th in runs, 14th in home runs, and 11th in slugging percentage. Logan Fyffe is batting close to .400 on 179 at-bats with a slugging percentage of .614. They have 4 batters over 10+ home runs and 3 batters with 16 home runs.
Missouri State and Arkansas played some similar opponents this year in Missouri and Ole Miss. Against Ole Miss, Missouri State scored only 11 runs in their 3-game series, losing all 3 games. Arkansas Baseball scored 21 runs and beat Ole Miss 2-1. Missouri State played Missouri once this year and lost 5-2. Arkansas took the Missouri series 2-1, scoring a total of 12 runs.
The game 1 starting pitcher’s job will be to limit their hitting and expect Arkansas’ bats to come out flying against some average pitching. Damian Ruiz will be an important piece to get this team going. He leads Arkansas in on-base percentage, and he is 16 for 17 in stolen bases. Starting early with a runner in scoring position is exactly what the team needs.
Camden Kozeal is hitting like he did to start the season, and Zack Stewart is at his peak right now. There is confidence that the bats will stay hot during the postseason. Left field and Right field are 10 feet longer than Baum-Walker, and they will need to stay away from the warning track balls they were sending constantly during their slump. Missouri State’s field is shorter than Baum-Walker’s, so they may feel the longer length as well.
Who takes game 1 of the regionals?
Arkansas Baseball will not take this game lightly, and I do believe they will pull out this win without Hunter Dietz starting. If Dave Van Horn decides to roll out Hunter Dietz due to their batting power, then I believe there will be a greater chance at victory.
The greatest thing about Dave Van Horn is his experience and how he develops his team from day 1 to day 100. Van Horn has this team at its best when it matters the most, and that should not go unnoticed. He has his major transfer guys playing their best now in Maika Niu and TJ Pompey, and a freshman in Rutenbar, who is a major spark in the offense. Van Horn and the coaching staff managed to fix Gabe Gaeckle when he was pitching his worst calmly, and found arms in Parker Coil, Steele Eaves, and Tate McGuire.
Arkansas Baseball takes on Missouri State at Hoglund Park in Kansas this Friday at 6:00 EST/5:00 C. The weather looks clear in Kansas, as I do not expect any delays potentially through the whole weekend. Can Arkansas Baseball stay focused and reach the Super Regionals against a potential Georgia Tech? Dave Van Horn knows it’s always one game at a time, and that starts with Missouri State. As always, Go Razorbacks.
