Should the Commanders Pay Daron Payne?

By: Ryan Cooley

*All stats/grades are via PFF

Daron Payne has been the focal point to begin the offseason. He is not under contract in 2023 and is projected to land a massive deal. The Commanders have a couple of routes they can take. One is simply letting him walk to save cap space. Two is paying Payne his desired contract. Three is slapping the franchise tag on him. And last, but not least, they could tag and trade Payne for draft picks.

Before we answer the question of what Washington should do, let’s look at some factors that could play into a potential new contract.

Payne’s First Five Years

Daron Payne was selected 13^th overall in the 2018 draft. He was viewed as the best run-defending DT in the draft with the tools to develop as a serious pass rusher. He has flashed both his pass rush and run-defending ability through his first five years.

He was seen as a good DT, but not great in his first four seasons. It is one reason Washington drafted Phidarian Mathis in the 2^nd round last year. He then had his breakout season in 2022, recording 12 sacks on 49 pressures.

Projected Contract

Brad Spielberger, a salary cap analyst from PFF has been incredibly accurate when projecting free agent’s salaries. According to Spielberger, Payne’s projected contract will be around $80 million over four years with $55 million guaranteed. Others believe he could make anywhere from $20-$24 million per year.

To compare, Chris Jones signed this same deal (with less guaranteed) in 2020. Last offseason Vita Vea signed a 4-year/$71 million contract. With the salary cap jumping up by $16.1 million, you can expect player’s contracts to also increase.

Pass Rush

In his first three years, Payne struggled to consistently rush the passer. His pass rush grade remained in the high 50s to low 60s. In 2021 and 2022, his pass rush grade jumped up to 74.1 and 72. His 12 sacks this season was tied for 4^th most among DTs.

While his pressure and sack numbers were both top 10 this year, some more advanced stats make me cautious about him coming close to these numbers again. The first is his pash rush win %. His 11.3 win percentage ranked 35^th highest. In true pass sets (passes with 4+ pass-rushers, straight QB drop to 7+ yards, no play action, no screens, and took over 2 seconds for QB to throw), his win % ranked 52^nd at 14.3%.

Next, let’s look at his pass rush grades. One big factor in these grades is how quickly defenders get off their block and/or generate pressure. A defender shedding their block and getting to the QB in under three seconds will receive a bigger boost than a defender getting to a QB in four seconds. Payne’s 72 pass-rush grade in 2022 ranked 25^th highest among DTs.

When looking at his pass rush grades and win %, I have concerns that he can consistently reach double-digit sacks.

Run Defense

My biggest concern with Payne is his struggles against the run the past two seasons. In 2019 and 2020, Payne’s run-defending grades ranked 22^nd and 15^th best. However, in 2021 and 2022, it dropped to 57^th and 90^th. While he took steps up as a pass rusher the past two seasons, he has regressed against the run.

Payne also had some trouble with missed tackles this season. He missed 12 tackles in 2022 and his 17.2% missed tackle rate ranked 9^th highest. However, I wouldn’t put much into this stat as his tackling hasn’t been an issue before this season.

Payne has proven he can be a solid run defender in his first three seasons. I would like to see him have a full season as both a dominant run defender and pass rusher. If he does, he can solidify himself as a top-three DT in the league.

Conclusion

I would be surprised if Payne’s deal was anything less than $20 million annually. It’s difficult to give Payne that much money when Allen just got paid. Nearly $40 million going to your DTs might not be the best idea.

I believe the best decision is to franchise tag him this year. If negotiations are far off, don’t be afraid to trade him. The worst scenario is Payne walking while Washington gets nothing in return. With Curl, Sweat, and Young up for a new deal soon, they may opt to spread the money around to other potions outside of DT.

At the end of the day, I believe they have two options. Paying Payne means they will have a great DT duo for years to come. Tagging and trading him will warrant extra draft capital and allow other players to get paid. I believe the latter is the best option. Washington needs to build its offensive line, find a Mike LB, and sure up the secondary. Tagging and trading Payne would give them the best opportunity to do this.