NFL
By: Randall Slifer
March Madness is finally here. You can feel the hours and days straight of college basketball in the air. You can already hear Kevin Harlan and Jim Nantz in your head. Arkansas Basketball has had a stressful season that really challenged your loyalty to the basketball program. After losing Musselman, Arkansas took a big swing and paid Calipari a lot of money to continue the success of this organization. Calipari was left with a blank canvas with only two players staying, notably Trevon Brazile. The learning curve of the team has given our fanbase some grey hairs, but it started to come together after Arkansas upset Kentucky. Before that game, Arkansas was 12-8 overall, with a dreadful 1-6 in SEC play. Even after losing Boogie Fland, the team came together and finished the season 20-13 and 8-10 in SEC conference play.
Important players began to become impactful in late-season games and situations that helped Arkansas get a ticket to March Madness. 7’2” Zvonimir Ivisic had important stretches in being dynamic defensively inside the paint, while being a threat at the three-point line. Ivisic dropped 25 points in a crucial SEC win against LSU and followed it up with a 20-point game against 15th-ranked Missouri that resulted in a win. 6’10” Brazile began to understand his role better and gained the confidence to use his athleticism on defense as well as stretching the floor on offense. Jonas Aidoo began to excel at what he does best, which gives me the most confidence going into the tournament. 6’11” Aidoo has dominated the paint in the last 3 games with a double-double against 25th-ranked Mississippi for the final regular season game, and South Carolina in the first round of the SEC tournament. He neared a double-double in the second round of the SEC tournament against Ole Miss, but was 2 rebounds shy of completing that goal.
If you happen to notice a hidden theme in the impactful players I discussed, it is that the Razorbacks are tall and long. Defense during March Madness is key, because there are 68 teams in the tournament, and every team can score. It is all about limiting your opponent to a certain number so you can run the offense of your preference. Playing your opponent’s style of ball during March Madness, gets you sent home in the first round. Defensively, Arkansas is aggressive out on the three-point line, and their length covers inside. John Calipari expects intense defensive play and press at 3 quarters or immediately at half.
Arkansas’ goal is turnovers, with the ability to recover or play help defense inside the paint with their size. This style of play is ideal for March Madness, but everyone needs to understand their assignment. Arkansas has issues in rebounding, as well as shooting percentages are up and down in a game-by-game basis. In their brutal five game losing streak, their opponents averaged 42 rebounds per game while allowing 51 rebounds against Tennessee. During the stretch, Arkansas shot a dreadful 37% from the field and 26% from three. On the contrary, in their crucial wins in the final quarter of the season, they shot 52% from the field and 38% from three. If Arkansas is attempting to get anywhere in March Madness, they need those prominent numbers every game they play.
Our first matchup is against Kansas, a team Arkansas played an exhibition match before the season started when Kansas had the number 1 next to their name. Razorbacks ended up winning that game, but that game is virtually meaningless to what the result will hold on Thursday. Kansas has a good three-point shooter in Zeke Mayo who is 41% from three for the season which is very impressive. Kansas has been consistent in their three-point shooting where their losses are still similar to their average 3 point percentage at 35%. The big drop off is field goal percentage. When Kansas wins, they shoot close to 50%, while in losses, it is closer to 40%. Hunter Dickerson transferred from Michigan to Kansas, and he has been a unit since stepping onto a collegiate floor. 7’2” Dickerson averages a double-double with 17.6 points per game and 10 rebounds this year. He shoots 53% from the field and 75% from the free throw line. Zeke Mayo and Hunter Dickerson are a duo who when they get hot, they are tough to beat.
So, How does Arkansas upset Kansas? Arkansas needs to limit Kansas on the offensive glass. Kansas averaged 12 offensive rebounds per game with Hunter Dickerson averaging 3 per game. That is a potential of 24+ 2nd chance points that Arkansas cannot afford. Arkansas will need to control the glass and out-rebound Kansas as a team effort, not an individual performance by one player. Kansas averages 76 points per game while allowing 69 points per game. Arkansas also averages 76 points per game but allows 71 points per game. Taking away very high scoring (85+) games and overtime, Arkansas has only won 2 games where the opponents have scored more than the 71 points.
We will need to keep Kansas under 72 points to control the game with their style of basketball. Boogie Fland will make his comeback for March Madness, which is very exciting. The 22nd prospect coming out of high school injured his hand vs Florida that has kept him out till it was announced on Sunday that he would make his comeback. He is a 37% three-point shooter who averaged 15 points and 6 assists. His defense is clutch at times with his length at guard and he is a pivotal depth piece as he will have to get back to his own self on the court. The unfortunate side of injuries is Adou Thiero is doubtful to play in the first game of March Madness. Thiero is Arkansas’ leading scorer, but the Razorbacks have been resilient in adjusting and working as a team to plug the holes that come throughout the year.
My short prediction is that my optimism believes Arkansas will beat Kansas 77-69. Arkansas will shoot well against Kansas, and their length and size will stunt Dickerson’s stat line enough to give Arkansas the edge. Vegas does have Kansas as a 5.5-point favorite with the over/under at 145.5. Tip-off for Arkansas vs Kansas is at 7:10est/6:10c, but I’m sure the TV will already be on as most of America will catch a “cold” later in the week. I hope to write a preview for round 2 of March Madness for Arkansas, so be ready to call them hogs!
Reach out to me on X or Bluesky @RandallSlifer, and give me your thoughts on March Madness or this particular game!
