NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
Sam Howell was projected to be a 2nd-3rd-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft. He ended up falling to the 5th round. At that point, the Commanders couldn’t pass on him again. After trading for Wentz in March, Rivera seemed hesitant to take a quarterback early in the draft due to the controversy of how committed they were to Carson would have started.
Howell’s collegiate career was an interesting one. Many viewed him as a first-round pick after his sophomore campaign. In 2020, his 91.5 passing grade from Pro Football Focus ranked 7th best in the nation and ahead of Trevor Lawrence’s 90.2. North Carolina then lost its top four weapons on offense in Dyami Brown, Dazz Newsome, Javonte Williams, and Michael Carter.
There was a visible dropoff in Howell’s play from 2020 to 2021 after those losses. While many pinned his play on the loss of weapons, it wasn’t enough to stop him from falling to pick 145. Howell is viewed as a project quarterback, but could he beat out Taylor Heinicke for the backup role?
Howell possesses the physical tools needed to have success at the NFL level. His best attribute is his arm strength. The league is shifting to an era of mobile quarterbacks with cannons for arms. While Howell might not have the rushing ability of Malik Willis, he did manage to force the second-most missed tackles among quarterbacks in 2021 at 65.
There is no denying the arm talent, and North Carolina didn’t waste it. Howell’s average depth of target in 2021 was 11.7 yards (6th highest). One of Heinicke’s biggest issues is his lack of arm strength. Taylor’s 52.6 deep passing grade ranked dead last in the NFL (25 attempt minimum). Howell is undoubtedly already a massive upgrade when it comes to downfield passing.
Most would assume a 29-year-old NFL quarterback would have much more experience than a rookie. In reality, Heinicke has only 17 more NFL starts than Howell. Some quarterbacks coming out of college have a question mark surrounding them due to the lack of playing experience. Howell is not one of them, as he was the starting quarterback at UNC for three years.
Heinicke’s ceiling is more than apparent after the 2021 season. Yes, he is a good backup. However, his physical limitations have a huge impact on Washington’s offense. Howell on the other hand would not limit the playbook from a physical standpoint.
The main reason Howell fell to the 5th round was more mental than physical. North Carolina ran a high rate of RPOs. This led to Howell never really needing to make multiple reads on most plays. According to PFF’s Mike Renner, Howell struggled during interviews in the pre-draft process, mainly with the whiteboard material.
On the other hand, Heinicke had his struggles with the mental aspect of playing quarterback too. There were many plays in which Heinicke made a wrong read or head-scratching decision. The worst part is, that this actually got worse later in the season. In his last five games, Heinicke committed 12 turnover-worthy plays (tied for 2nd most). A quarterback should get better with the more playing time they receive, but that was simply not the case here.
Everyone in the Washington organization is bought into Carson Wentz for the 2022 season. I believe he will play better here than in Indianapolis, but I don’t think he will be the long-term solution. If Wentz does struggle for most of the year, would it be crazy to see what they have in Howell late in the season?
If Howell shows some promise, then Washington doesn’t have to worry about drafting a quarterback in 2023. However, if he shows little improvement throughout the season then they can plan accordingly.
Overall, Howell has an uphill climb to beat out Heinicke as Wentz’s backup. I have been critical of Taylor, but I do realize he is a reliable backup that has been in the system for a while. I was a big Howell fan going into the draft as he was my #1 QB in this class. However, it will take him a while before he is NFL-ready. This could lead to Rivera playing it safe and rolling with Heinicke as QB2.
