NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills laid an absolute stinker against the Dolphins last week. In a season when Buffalo cannot afford those losses, the game showed concerning signs that this team has aspirations for Super Bowl LX.
Now, not all is dead in Buffalo, NY. The Buffalo Bills should not fear any team in the AFC at this point. Each team has its major flaws, and some quarterbacks may be entering their first legitimate playoff game this year.
The Broncos are squeezing out games, and their record does not reflect who they truly are. The Colts are beginning to have to pick up the slack for Daniel Jones, who looks a little more like 2023 Daniel Jones. Drake Maye is on a heater so far this year, but rookie quarterbacks can have issues closing out playoff games (except you, Jayden Daniels). The one thing Buffalo does have as an edge over potential playoff newcomers is elite quarterback Josh Allen.
Buffalo faces off against Tampa Bay in Buffalo this Sunday afternoon, in a potential rainy and windy game. This should favor Buffalo being home and Josh Allen’s rocket arm, but Baker Mayfield is not afraid of a little wind and rain.
Buffalo needs to adjust its game plan, and this is a must-win game for multiple reasons. The coaching staff needs to prove they have this season under control, and the team needs to show they can run a balanced offense. Let’s take a look at what fans need to see out of the Buffalo Bills, and how they can get this win:
Shake up the wide receivers
The wide receivers are the most talked-about position in Buffalo. It’s fair, as the wide receiver room may be the weakest on teams in the playoff picture as of today. Buffalo has made some moves in signing Mecole Hardman and getting Gabe Davis back to full health.
This does not seem like much, but it could spark the offense later in the season. The most important thing for defense before a game is watching tape to prepare for their opponent. Buffalo has an opportunity to switch it up midway through the year and see what can stick for the playoffs.
Dalton Kincaid is out for three weeks, and Keon Coleman has not met the expectations of the fans and coaches. Buffalo fans are not excited about Gabe Davis, and there is some validity to that, but he brings a veteran presence at only 26 years old.
Gabe Davis can be the X receiver that Keon Coleman could unfortunately not become this year. He can be more reliable on the outside while being that vertical threat. The big hope is that he can minimize his drops stepping into this role. Mecole Hardman brings another field-stretching wide receiver to the team, and he will be very beneficial in the return game. He is ranked 11th in return yards per return and can swing Buffalo’s field position enough to get to Tampa Bay’s territory quicker.
Teams have been playing the most zone against Buffalo to put the focus on Josh Allen, because they believe the wide receivers cannot traditionally beat their defensive backs. The veteran presence of Mecole Hardman and Gabe Davis could force defenses to adjust their coverages. Gabe Davis and Mecole Hardman can run more option routes to beat the defenses. Running option routes gives the ability to stick to the play, but read the defenses given to Josh, and pick the spot to sit where defenses are not covering.
Playing Mecole Hardman, Josh Palmer, and Gabe Davis on the outside could give Keon Coleman the chance to produce as a bigger slot wide receiver. Many fans have clamored for this, including me. Keon can present a constant mismatch in the slot and give him some ability to gain more yards after the catch. Playing in the slot is harder than outside, as you have to be smarter and quicker in the slot. Joe Brady does a good job at simplifying and creating mesh routes, and Keon can make it work. At this rate, Keon is only catching three catches for 30 yards a game, so it can’t really get much worse than what his stat line is now.
Joe Brady: Stop being so predictable
Joe Brady’s best game this year was against the Chiefs. Buffalo fans watched that game and saw things they had hoped for all season long. Joe Brady avoided sweeps and trick plays when Buffalo only needed one or two yards to get the first down. He used the most play-action passing under center, which often made the linebackers bite at James Cook.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ run defense is top-10. Buffalo cannot stray from the run game, but Joe Brady cannot hammer it and rely on it even when conditions favor the run. Tampa Bay does allow 4.16 yards per carry, but they limit explosive runs. Joe Brady should use the run game just as their defense gives it to them.
Joe Brady should mix up the run and pass on first down to keep Tampa Bay guessing, and use 2nd down to gain yards to either pick up the first down or make it an easy 3rd-and-2 or 3rd-and-1. If Buffalo can stay out of 2nd-and-10 situations like they did against Miami, then the offense and the flow will operate better in these rainy, windy conditions.
Josh Allen needs to be better.
This is not a “Josh Allen is not playing well” comment. It is hard to trust the wide receivers when they are having issues getting open. It has caused Josh Allen to play faster, leading him to miss open reads when they are crucial to moving the chains.
Josh does need to play slower, and he understands that. He also needs to acknowledge that the receiver room is not great at stretching the field. The only way to throw the intermediate or deep pass is to complete short passes to force the defense to shift closer to the line of scrimmage. There is no alternate route to our offense because it is limited. Joe Brady and Josh Allen need to be in lockstep with the game plan to execute it well.
For the wide receivers, separation is the biggest issue. Josh Allen needs to identify the mismatches in the back coverages and give 50/50 balls a better chance. Josh Allen stated, “He needs to give guys more chances”. Some people took that as a martyr statement, but I did not. When he sees Curtis Samuel, Josh Palmer, or Curtis Samuel on a vertical route going one-on-one, he needs to pull the trigger and let the receiver make the play. I expect that to happen this Sunday.
The Buffalo Bills play Tampa Bay in Buffalo on Sunday at 1 pm EST/12 pm CST. Vegas favors Buffalo by 5.5 points with the over/under at 48 points. Both offenses can be electric and put up 30 points each, but the weather should affect the total score. Bucky Irving is trending towards not playing, so Buffalo needs to stop Baker Mayfield and Emeka Egbuka. The Buffalo Bills need to come ready to play this game because it is pivotal for how Buffalo views its coaching staff and the remainder of the year. As always, Go Bills.
