NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The New England Patriots are heading to Buffalo for a primetime game this Sunday Night. Buffalo will be rocking their clean rivalry jerseys in front of their fans, and they need to prepare for the toughest opponent in the AFC East.
New England has a balanced team with good players at all positions, and they could be looking at the playoffs at the end of the year. The AFC is relatively wide open right now, and the powers have flipped to the NFC. New England will have eyes on a wild-card spot, so they understand the magnitude of this game.
The Buffalo Bills have faced some easier opponents over the past three weeks. Still, the parity of the league has been evident with upsets all over the place, including the Green Bay tie, the Giants’ upset, and the fact that the Chiefs are currently in 7th place.
One of the best aspects of Buffalo is that they truly follow the NFL season on a week-to-week basis. Let’s take a look at how Buffalo needs to handle New England on their turf Sunday night:
Exploiting their linebackers and defensive backs
The New England Patriots rank in the bottom 1/3rd in many defensive passing stats. They have allowed over 1000 receiving yards in the first four games, and are averaging 11.5 yards per reception. They have allowed 16 passing plays over 20 yards and 48 first downs.
Quarterbacks have been successful in intermediate and deep passing against the Patriots. Bryce Young did not attack the 2nd or 3rd level of the field versus the Patriots, but here are the stats for the other three quarterbacks on passes of 10+ air yards or more:
Geno Smith – 9/15, 219 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
Aaron Rodgers – 3/6, 51 yards, 2 TD, 1 INT
Tua Tagovailoa – 6/9, 138 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT
The sidelines and the middle of the field can be exploited in multiple ways. Craig Woodson was a good safety coming out of the University of California, but he is still adjusting to the NFL. Josh Allen faced off against a rookie safety last week in Jonas Sanker. Josh Allen will not play Woodson lightly, but if he sticks to the tape, he can exploit him on the sidelines if he is the single high safety.
Tackling has also been an issue for their linebackers and safeties. In total, the Patriots have accounted for 44 missed tackles. The top three in missed tackles for their team are Christian Elliss, Robert Spillane, and Craig Woodson. In just linebackers and defensive backs, they have accounted for 31 out of the 44 missed tackles.
(Credit: Ray Carpenter @csv_enjoyer on Twitter: Bills rushing EPA per rush through each gap)
This is truly where Buffalo can excel and keep to the game plan they like to use. Buffalo’s offensive line is one of the best in the league. Buffalo’s 12 and 13 personnel can be used in the run game to get through the front line of the Patriots. Once James Cook can surpass the defensive line, James Cook is elusive and quick enough to break through and lead explosive play after explosive play.
Buffalo’s wide receivers can exploit this as well in the short pass game that Joe Brady sticks to in his formula. Khalil Shakir continues to prove that he has one of the best contact balances among wide receivers. Screen passes should be plentiful for Shakir, as he can break tackles easily from players who have trouble tackling. Keon Coleman and Josh Palmer can be utilized in slants to create easy catch-and-run opportunities that can break away from the defensive backs.
I expect New England to prepare for this, but the reason Buffalo is 4-0 is because we have been able to do the things we are best at, without forcing a different strategy to do it. I expect this game to follow the Buffalo formula they have been doing for the past four weeks.
Greg Rousseau and Christian Benford need to earn their extensions
I know that sounds prompt and impatient, but they will be pivotal in this matchup. The Patriots share similar characteristics in their quarterback play and rushing attack. They are at their best when rushing on the outside versus the inside.
Greg Rousseau
Greg Rousseau is an edge player who excels at defending the run, complemented by a solid package of rushing the quarterback. Handling the rushing game and Drake Maye should be Rousseau’s dream in making a statement on Sunday. Rousseau should stick to the left side of the line the whole game to stop the run to the right and spy Drake Maye.
The Patriots often bootleg Drake Maye to his right to move the pocket and give him a chance to throw on the run, or to scramble and pick up a first down. Rousseau will need to identify whether it’s a run or a pass, and if it’s a pass, he must shed his right tackle, Morgan Moses, and compress the pocket to keep Maye contained and panic under pressure. If the play is a bootleg on play action, Rousseau has the size and length to limit Maye’s ability to throw behind the line of scrimmage or force him to the sideline to a limited gain. This is, in fact, Rousseau’s bread and butter when it comes to his skill set, so I would hope he comes prepared.
Christian Benford
Christian Benford is our best cornerback, who has had a rocky start to say the least. He may have been battling an injury that has limited his mobility, but that was rumored in week 1, and we are now in week 5.
Stefon Diggs will come into this game hungry as ever. It’s a stalemate over who’s fault it was for Diggs leaving so promptly in the trade to the Texans. I am still a fan of Stefon Diggs. By no means was Diggs the reason Josh Allen became good at football, even though he may have said that. He certainly contributed to Allen’s confidence and success, as they produced Bill’s historic stats while they were a duo.
Diggs has come back quickly and has already shown as a reliable target for Drake Maye. His route tree is not limited, and he is still separating like he did before the injury. Buffalo will play a lot of zone, and Christian Benford will not be responsible for him all game, but when he is, he needs to shut him down.
Christian Benford has a chance to run with him toe to toe due to Diggs’ injury, and his trail technique, combined with ball locating, can shut down Diggs throughout the game. Stefon Diggs has some issues with ball locating (cue the playoff deep pass versus the Chiefs that he dropped), and he has a 50% or lower contested catch rate from 2021 to 2024 (2025 is too small a sample size). Just like Rousseau, this is a good opportunity for Benford to have his 2025 breakout game in front of Bills Mafia.
Win the starting field position.
Field position was an issue in the Saints’ game last week. The average starting position for the Buffalo Bills’ offense was at the 25-yard line, while the Saints were at the 39-yard line. The Bills were backed inside their 15-yard line four times, while the Saints started in Buffalo territory four times. It was much easier for the Saints to get into scoring range, and Buffalo had a lot of work to do starting that far back.
Patriots punt returner has had a great start to the season, leading the NFL with 28.9 yards per return. Last week, he had three punt returns for 167 yards, including an 87-yard return for a touchdown. Buffalo will need to keep their lanes in check on special teams defense, or hope Wishnowsky can punt it accurately to the sidelines.
Brandon Codrington was inactive last week, and our kick and punt returns were not great. I expect Codrington to be active in this game to improve our field position. Josh Allen is very efficient, and he can get into scoring range easily when starting from the 30-yard line or beyond.
The Bills host the Patriots Sunday Night at 8:20 EST/7:30 CST. Vegas has Buffalo favored by 8 points with the total set at 46.5. The total is based on how the strategy may unfold in the game. Both teams may want to control the ball with a rushing attack and slow down the game, thereby preventing the opposing quarterback from gaining possession of the ball. The game will be closer than the -8 spread, but so was the Saints, and we won by 12. As always, Go Bills.
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