NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills are on their bye week and entering it with a 5-1 record. There’s nothing to complain about, right? The offense is carrying the defense, and the defense needs to improve over the rest of the regular season. The best way to show this is through stats:
Stat: Offense (Rank) – Defense (Rank)
Points Per Game: 32.8 (1) – 28.5 (28)
4th Q Points: 10.7 (1) – 12 (32)
Yards Per Game: 387.7 (6) – 386.8 (31)
Yards Per Play: 6.5 (2) – 5.6 (25)
The Buffalo Bills’ margin of victory is just under 6 points, which is fine until the playoffs. This defense won’t contribute to playoff wins as it does now. The NFL is a game of margins, and a “middle of the pack” defense means one more defensive stop per game. Granted, the Bills are missing their two highest-drafted players (DJ Moore and Ed Oliver). Is that the only missing link? I do not believe so. Let’s dive into 3 moves the Bills can make between now and the NFL trade deadline (November 10):
Give Jalon Kilgore a much bigger role.
The safety spot next to Cole Bishop is a big question mark. CJ Gardner-Johnson has had more negative highlights clipped than good highlights this season so far. He is suspended for the next game after being ejected for spitting during the Raiders game. Joe Brady should make his first head-coaching disciplinary move and put CJ Gardner-Johnson back in the depth chart.
Surprisingly, Damar Hamlin made the defense look better once CJ Gardner-Johnson left the field. Questions are surfacing about CJ Gardner-Johnson not understanding the playbook well, and about certain players needing to communicate constantly pre-snap for CJ to get in position. That adds up when Damar hit the field, and the defensive backs looked more organized.
Jalon Kilgore is an athletic freak at 6’1, 210 pounds. He has the range and speed to play free safety. With Kilgore, Damar Hamlin can take 50% of the snaps, and Kilgore is a better option to play more Cover 3. Cole Bishop had a good game next to Damar, and that could help the defensive backfield.
Damar Hamlin is a limited safety who knows the playbook, but he can ramp up Kilgore to take most snaps by the end of the season. Kilgore’s athleticism could be key to getting this defense out of the bottom third of the rankings. If not? The trade deadline is the chance to make a move.
Change up the linebacker rotations.
The linebackers have become the weakest link in the defense’s back seven. The defensive backs have looked better, but the linebackers are struggling in coverage. The run defense looks very good, but today’s game demands both. Last year, the linebackers were also the biggest issue until Shaq Thompson entered the lineup.
Shaq Thompson did a great job commanding the defensive line, positioning himself in coverage, and defending the run. The linebacker rotation should be: Shaq Thompson and Kaleb Elarms-Orr start, with Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams as backups. This will be a difficult task since Terrel Bernard is a captain.
Captains need to do what is best for their team, right? A non-starter can still lead, especially when this defense’s issue is communication. Analyzing each play and getting on the field ready to adjust and communicate would lead to better results. Jim Leonhard hasn’t been able to open up his playbook with disguised coverage and blitzes because the defense isn’t ready yet. Terrel Bernard could come onto the field on certain 2nd-and-3rd downs with a disguised play ready to execute. Shaq Thompson can bring a sturdy foundation in “high-floor” play, and Bernard can open up the playbook for Jim Leonhard.
Keep Skyler Bell in the lineup.
Skyler Bell has been in the lineup while DJ Moore has been sidelined for the past two weeks. Bills Mafia has been excited to see Bell in the lineup, even though he hasn’t caught a pass yet. He has looked good in the first two games, with some solid separation in the short and intermediate game. He has gotten some good blocking reps, which the Buffalo Bills love, too.
Josh Palmer may not be the player Brandon Beane had hoped for. His route running is inconsistent, and he struggles to catch the ball. His blocking reps aren’t as good as Skyler Bell’s, and the Buffalo Bills could save some good money by cutting him next year. Josh Palmer’s only real contribution is deep-ball coverage. His vertical game, paired with solid stem work, keeps safeties back and covers deep shots. Is that skillset worth it over Skyler Bell? Keon Coleman is emerging as a serious wide receiver, and DJ Moore is a major upgrade. I think the Buffalo Bills can afford the switch, and it could improve the offense.
The biggest question for the next three weeks is Brandon Beane and the new coaching staff. They have praised the roster time and time again. The odd thing is, one day into the 2-week break, they signed Tre White back. He is expected to join the 53-man roster when he is ready. Brandon Beane didn’t make a trade deadline move last year, but he typically does.
If the Buffalo Bills don’t improve (AFC Championship or Super Bowl), Terry Pegula has no one left to fire other than Brandon Beane. He believes in sustained success, but that needs to go out the window until he wins a Super Bowl. I expect Brandon Beane to change his philosophy when he has his back against the wall. Does he begin this year? He certainly should, with an offense that may finish as the top offense in the last 26 years. As always, Go Bills.
