Buffalo vs Kansas City: The matchup that keeps on giving

By: Randall Slifer

We are back again in one of the most anticipated yearly matchups versus the Kansas City Chiefs. This is not a regular-season game. This is more like a divisional game than a regular-season matchup.

Since 2020, this will be their 10^th matchup, and both teams have been at the top of the AFC since then. Playing a non-divisional opponent twice a year is honestly very impressive, as it shows each organization can sustain success over a long period of time. In this century, Buffalo endured a 17-year playoff drought, so sustained success is something I personally welcome and appreciate.

Buffalo and Kansas City are sitting in the back half of the playoff picture halfway through the season. This game has significant value for each team in different ways. Buffalo has a clean opportunity to take the one seed in the AFC this year. A loss this weekend will pretty much eliminate their chances for that shot. Kansas City has already dealt three losses this year. If Kansas City loses this game, it will be climbing uphill to win the AFC West. If they win this game, they will have the same losses as Buffalo, with the tie-breaker.

This game is destined to be close, so let’s take a look at how Buffalo can attack Kansas City at home this weekend:

Control the clock

This strategy is one Buffalo and Kansas City use in every matchup. The plain and simple goal is: How little can we put the ball in the other quarterback’s hands? Buffalo may have the advantage here.

The Kansas City Chiefs allow 100 yards rushing a game, and Buffalo will be the toughest running game they have faced. The closest they have come to running a competition was against the Baltimore Ravens. Kansas City allowed a total of 166 yards rushing, with Lamar Jackson rushing for 50 yards. James Cook is rushing far better than Derrick Henry this year, and Lamar Jackson left that game early with a hamstring injury.

Kansas City’s biggest weakness in defending the run is outside runs. In the last game against the Carolina Panthers, James Cook rushed for over 200 yards, and our most featured explosive play was a running back toss to the outside. Carolina was in the top five in defending the run, and Buffalo kept doing it, and they could not stop it. Kansas City will expect Buffalo to rush the ball often come Sunday, but the beautiful thing about Football is that sometimes you can overpower teams when you are dominant in their weakness.

Offensive line, come ready to play.

Kansas City’s defensive line has had one of the roughest starts to its season in this decade. Derrick Nnadi has been a bottom-tier defensive tackle, and their stars have not performed as expected this year.

George Karlaftis leads the team with only five sacks this year, and Chris Jones has only two sacks for the year. The Chiefs’ defensive coordinator knows how Buffalo operates, and he is a menace at dialing up blitzes.

Buffalo has had games this year that have tested the offensive line against blitzes, notably against the Atlanta Falcons. They can use Atlanta’s tape in addition to the countless games they have played before, and prepare well for this game.

If Buffalo can keep Josh Allen clean in the pocket, Joe Brady will be able to dial up his play sheet and let plays develop and open up properly. Josh Allen can run through his progressions and find the open guy easier, making his passing game less chaotic than it has been this year.

Joe Brady needs to do what he does best.

The Chiefs’ defensive coordinator is one of the best, and he is still dialing up blitzes to pressure the quarterback, averaging about 18 pressures a game. The ultimate safety valve is the way Joe Brady calls the offense.

The passing game against the Chiefs should be prefaced on exactly what Joe Brady likes to do: short, quick passes and letting the pass catcher create space and yards after the catch. Kansas City has allowed almost 1500 yards passing, and 60% of those yards come after the catch.

Their top four defenders who have allowed the most yards after the catch come from their linebackers and safeties:

LB Nick Bolton: 283 YAC

NB/S Chamarri Connor: 149 YAC

LB Drue Tranquill: 106 YAC

SS Jaden Hicks: 73 YAC

All those players are responsible for the middle of the field and for passes in the short and intermediate areas. Joe Brady can dial up wide receiver bunches to create mismatches with Dalton Kincaid and Khalil Shakir, make the separation, and let him take it to the house.

James Cook has not been used enough in the passing game, and this weekend is the time to break it back out. One of the most important explosive plays in the incredible comeback against the Ravens was Josh Allen changing the play at the line of scrimmage to an RB screen after identifying the blitz.

Linebackers will get lost in the coverage, and Josh Allen can chip away in the short and intermediate game, waiting for the opportunity to take the top off the defense. Joe Brady, calling the game as usual, will mitigate turnovers while still scoring over 30 points.

Buffalo takes on Kansas City in Buffalo Sunday afternoon at 4:25 EST/3:25 CST. Vegas has Kansas City favored by -2, which is really -3, with a point shaved for Buffalo being home. Buffalo handles being the underdog well, so this line really does not mean much. The total points for the game are 48.5, and that is an interesting one. My guess is because of my first topic: controlling the clock. The idea for each team would be to limit its possessions so that each team scores fewer than 25 points. That line is pretty on the money, so that I wouldn’t touch the total points in this game, but I would take Buffalo at +2. As Always, Go Bills.