NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The regular season has ended, and the playoffs are set. In one of the most surprising AFC playoff pictures, the Buffalo Bills end up the 6th seed. Let’s move on from the national rhetoric of “This is Josh Allen’s best shot without Jackson, Burrow, and Mahomes in the playoffs.” Football is hard, and it says more about the Buffalo Bills that they are the only team standing out of those four.
Buffalo begins its playoffs with what is potentially the toughest matchup. The Jacksonville Jaguars are on a heater, winning the last eight games and securing the 3-seed in this AFC playoff picture. Let’s dive into how Buffalo can get it done this Sunday:
Everyone says this is a bad matchup for Buffalo?
The national media has framed this game as a bad matchup for Buffalo, but I see it as more of a give-and-take between the two teams. Sure, Jacksonville has the number one run defense in the league, but they’re also facing the top running back and offensive line in the league.
James Cook finished with almost 2,000 all-purpose yards, with 1,621 yards through rushing the ball. Let’s take a look at some of James Cook’s yards against the top 10 rushing defenses:
NE Patriots: 107 yards & 2 TD’s
KC Chiefs: 114 yards & 0 TD
Hou Texans: 116 yards & 1 TD
Most takes on Cook not being able to rush the ball this Sunday stem from looking at the stats and realizing they are good at defending the run. The issue is that Buffalo is good at running the ball, not just because of Cook, but because of Allen and the offensive line. Buffalo believes that defenses can know they are running the ball, but Buffalo may be better at running the ball than you can defend it, and I agree.
If Buffalo cannot get the run going, what should they do?
Let’s say Jacksonville sells out on the run, and their whole gameplan is selling out on the run, and forcing Josh Allen and the pass catchers to win the game. Dare I say, the passing game could be at its highest peak since week 1 versus the Ravens?
Brandon Beane may have found something in Brandin Cooks. Brandin Cooks is naturally separating on his routes, and especially on deep routes of 20+ yards or more. Cooks started rough with Buffalo, having two critical drops in back-to-back games, but he managed to come down with 4 catches and 101 yards in the pouring rain against the Eagles. Brandin Cooks has had 7 targets from 20+ air yards or more in the five games he has played for Buffalo. The only wide receiver with more targets on deep shots this WHOLE season is Keon Coleman, who has been a healthy scratch for the majority of the second half of the season.
The Jacksonville Jaguars also rank 18th in DVOA when defending tight ends. Dalton Kincaid has been in and out of the lineup, but he surprisingly took snaps in week 18 versus the Jets, when they were resting a majority of players to get ready for the playoffs. Let’s look at some notable tight end stats against the Jacksonville defense:
Trey McBride: 9 for 79 yards
Brock Bowers: 12 for 127 yards & 3 TD
Colby Parkinson & Terrance Ferguson: 4 for 78 yards & 1 TD
AJ Barner: 3 for 71 yards
Travis Kelce: 7 for 61 yards & 1 TD
When Dalton Kincaid is on the field, he is a top 5 receiving TE threat in the game. He is one of the few receivers who can run option routes for Buffalo, which gives Josh a safe element in the intermediate game, making it easier to create first downs. Dawson Knox is experiencing a resurgence in his career and may receive another extension, depending on how well he plays. The duo of tight ends can be a force this Sunday.
The Jaguars play zone coverage 78% of their snaps and rarely play man coverage. Buffalo’s passing kryptonite is teams that can play man coverage against their weak wide receiver room. Buffalo should test the safeties early to force Jacksonville to play a deep zone defense throughout the game, giving open pockets in the intermediate for their tight ends to run through and pick up big gains.
Can Buffalo’s defense slow down Trevor Lawrence?
Trevor Lawrence is playing the way the NFL expected him to play coming out of college at Clemson. Liam Coen has certainly done a good job with this team and has revived careers that deserved to be restored. The Jaguars are not a great running team, but they do not avoid it because he knows Trevor Lawrence needs that to open up his passing game.
Sean McDermott has put together a really solid defense in the 2nd half of the year. The defensive line has been littered with injuries, but he really got the secondary working as a unit, which is buying time to pick up coverage sacks. The Buffalo defense has been the number one defense in the second half of games since week six in both rush defense and pass defense. The first halves of games have not looked great, but they have really figured out how to adjust at half.
There is a path to get Trevor Lawrence to make mistakes, and it dials into Buffalo’s strengths. Disguised blitzes and coverages can bait Trevor Lawrence into throwing interceptions or holding the ball too long, leading to a sack or strip sack. Trevor Lawrence has five fumbles and 12 interceptions on the year, so Buffalo needs to get turnovers to get Trevor Lawrence into quicksand.
I see a solid recipe in how the Arizona Cardinals handled Trevor Lawrence in week 12. Trevor Lawrence threw 3 touchdowns, but had 3 interceptions and 1 fumble that game. Arizona brought disguised blitzes from the linebacker core and the safeties to confuse Lawrence. Buffalo loves bringing corner back blitzes with Benford, and I expect 2 or 3 secondary blitzes this Sunday.
Arizona also did a great job at showing 6 or 7 guys blitzing, only to pull back into disguised coverages. Trevor Lawrence was baited into an easy interception by a linebacker just showing a blitz and pulling back, covering a slant route, which Lawrence was staring down as a first read. This is very reminiscent of Terrell Bernard watching tape on Tua and coming up with the game-winning interception in Buffalo’s first matchup against the Dolphins.
Trevor Lawrence is also not the most accurate passer. Lawrence has a 61% completion this season with an adjusted completion percentage of 73%. He tends to throw balls behind receivers, accounting for 22 turnover-worthy plays on the season. Buffalo can thrive in the turnover margin as long as McDermott dials up the right plays at the right times.
This crucial playoff game for Buffalo comes down to one of the most important factors in the playoffs: veteran leadership. Since McDermott became the Bills’ head coach, the Jaguars have played 5 playoff games. Sean McDermott has played 13 playoff games. Liam Coen has playoff experience as a coordinator with the Rams and the Buccs, but this will be his first head-coaching playoff game. The same goes for Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence; there is a large gap in experience. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott will need to stay poised and calm while being the leaders that they are year in and year out.
Buffalo faces Jacksonville at Everbank Stadium in Jacksonville, Sunday at 1:00 EST/12:00 CST. The weather is forecast to be 82 and sunny, so that will not be a factor in the game. Vegas favors Buffalo by 1.5 points, and the over/under is 51.5 points. The game goes over 51.5 points, and as always, Go BILLS!
