NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills are getting hot at the right time, and positivity is entering Western New York. I am guilty of overreacting when it comes to the Buffalo Bills, but maybe they shouldn’t go down 24-7 in the first half? But I digress.
It seems the entire Buffalo Bills organization has acknowledged its deficiencies and adjusted its game plan to address them. Their biggest issue is clearly defending the run.
The Buffalo Bills are playing the most 4-3 defense they have played in McDermott’s tenure. The Bills are also 8th in blitzing during rushes at a rate of 27.4%. This is a great move, acknowledging that you can muddy up the line of scrimmage and gaps, sending extra guys to lead teams to 2nd and long. It’s a recipe of relying on the offense, but Josh Allen is in full force, and the offense is really starting to trust each other.
The Buffalo Bills are off to Cleveland to take on the Browns this Sunday. Buffalo cannot take this game lightly, as they did lose to a team with an inexperienced quarterback and a tough defense. Let’s take a look at how Buffalo needs to approach this game:
Can Buffalo win on the road, rushing the ball?
The Cleveland Browns’ defense ranks 2nd overall, but some of the stats are a little skewed, in my opinion. The Cleveland Browns are in the middle of the pack, allowing 23.1 points per game and 110 rushing yards per game. Here are some notable rushing stats on teams playing in Cleveland:
Titans: 184 yards rushing – Tony Pollard: 161 yards & 2 TD
Ravens: 142 yards rushing – Derrick Henry: 103 yards & 1 TD
Dolphins: 99 yards rushing – Devon Achane: 82 yards & 0 TD
There have been three games this year where Josh Allen did not even look at his closet, where he keeps his Superman cape. These three games were the Jets, Panthers, and Steelers. Here are the passing attempts and James Cook rushing stats for those games:
Jets: 25 passing attempts – Cook: 132 Rushing & 2 TD
Panthers: 19 passing attempts – Cook: 219 rushing & 2 TD
Steelers: 23 passing attempts – Cook: 144 rushing & 0 TD (249 rushing total)
There are two paths to rushing the ball against Cleveland. They allow the highest EPA, rushing towards the right side of their defensive line and through Dion Dawkins and David Edwards. Buffalo is at their best rushing to the other side through Spencer Brown and O’Cyrus Torrence, but Buffalo will have to adjust. The other path to rushing the ball is just rushing away from Myles Garrett. Whichever approach Buffalo takes, they can easily win by rushing the ball with all three running backs to ease this game into a victory.
Can Myles Garrett and Quinshon Judkins beat Buffalo?
If you read that question and had some minor PTSD from the Houston Texans or the Atlanta Falcons game, this is ultimately what I am talking about. This is no knock on Shedeur Sanders, but you can discuss the similarities in attacking quarterbacks who do not have many total dropbacks in their careers. Now, Davis Mills has been in the league much longer, and the game is more fluent in his mind than it is in Shedeur’s.
As stated above, run defense is the Buffalo Bills’ largest weakness by a big margin. Judkins is the best rookie running back in the league as of today. His yards per carry are only 3.6, but Cleveland will feed him a lot of touches, and we won’t stifle Judkins at 3.6 yards per carry.
*Pic via twitter @Camijustice
Buffalo will need to continue with blitzing on the run to muddy up the line of scrimmage and get Shedeur Sanders into obvious passing situations. The Cleveland Browns had five offensive linemen on the injury report, with three starting the week without practicing. Shedeur Sanders has thrown 5 interceptions when pressured with rushing four defensive linemen, and not bringing the blitz. This is a perfect recipe for McDermott to attack a banged-up offensive line, while disguising coverages for Shedeur to fall into our coverage trap, create turnovers, and begin with a bigger lead.
Now, back to Myles Garrett and the Texans game. Buffalo was sacked eight times that game, with a great front four that dominated Buffalo’s offensive line. Myles Garrett is 1.5 sacks away from breaking the single-season sack record, and Buffalo is hoping it does not happen on their watch.
There has to be some added camaraderie in offensive line meetings this week, working as a team so they’re not the unit that gets the spotlight when Myles Garrett breaks the record. Against a top offensive line last week, the Bears allowed Myles Garrett only to produce 5 pressures with 2 sacks and 1 QB hit. He has 8 games with 1 sack or less, so it is doable to stunt Garrett.
Buffalo used a lot of 5-man protection against Houston, and I believe they recognized there was a mistake in that game plan. Dawson Knox and Jackson Hawes should be used for chipping Myles or even doubling him on the outside, and stopping Garrett as a separate job from winning the game. If Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, along with the tight ends, can shut him down, the rest of the offensive line can handle the rest.
The Buffalo Bills take on the Cleveland Browns this Sunday at 1:00 EST/ 12:00 CST. Vegas favors Buffalo with a 10-point spread and a total of 43.5. The Browns have scored 10 or fewer points six times this year, and there is a chance Buffalo could make it seven. Both lines are tough, with the spread being double digits, which is always a risk in the NFL. I personally would not touch either, but I would not be surprised if Josh Allen is sitting in the 4th quarter. As Always, Go Bills.
