NFL
By Keith Richards
The start of the 2024-25 season for the Denver Broncos has not been ideal. Coming off losses to the Seahawks and Steelers, I wouldn’t say that Denver is in a must-win situation, but it’s as close as you can get to it. In Week 3, Denver faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 2-0 Buccaneers lead the NFC South with the surprising resurgence of Baker Mayfield. Here are the three keys to victory for Denver to get a win in Week 3.
They Need to Find a Run Game in Week 3
No matter how prepared Sean Payton and his coaching staff think Bo Nix is, Bo can’t do it alone. Underwhelming quarterback play is, at times, expected for a rookie. One way to help Bo Nix is by having a solid running game. Thus far, the run game for Denver has been abysmal, which may even be an understatement.
Going into Week 3, the Broncos’ leading rusher is Bo Nix, with nine carries for 60 yards, an average of 6.7 yards per carry. The same cannot be said for Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin. Heading into Week 3, Williams has 19 carries for 40 yards (2.1 yards per carry), and McLaughlin has 13 carries for 33 yards (2.5 yards per carry). By any measure, that’s not nearly good enough.
In the 2023-24 season, Javonte averaged 3.6 yards per carry, and Jaleel averaged 5.4 yards per carry. This is a steep drop-off for McLaughlin, especially. Excluding the 2022-23 season, where he was injured, Javonte Williams is on track to have his worst season. Williams is on track for 340 yards for the 2024-25 season heading into Week 3 at his current pace.
In fairness, Denver has faced some stingy defenses thus far, but Javonte’s performances have been subpar since last season. If Denver can’t find a way to get him and McLaughlin going, it will be another long day for rookie Bo Nix in Week 3.
The Broncos need to go deep in Week 3
Coming out of Oregon, much of the criticism of Bo Nix was that his college statistics were based on the short pass/screen game. Despite that, Sean Payton and many others believed Bo Nix to be the best quarterback prospect of the 2024 draft. So far, the criticisms appear correct, as the statistics seem to agree.
Per FantasyPros, heading into Week 3, Bo has 235 total air yards (18th in the league) on his passes, which is how far passes travel in the air before they are caught. That equals an average of 3.1 air yards per attempt, which is 29th in the league. With Week 3 drawing near, Bo Nix has seven total passes thrown 20 yards or more (five 20+, one 30+, and one 40+).
Bo’s snap-to-pass time is 2.4 seconds, which is about the middle of the road in the league. He’s been blitzed 18 times, hurried six times, knocked down 11 times, but sacked only four times. Those numbers are expected based on the air yards we are seeing. Even with mostly short passes, Nix only completes 60% of his passes and has a passer rating of 51. What is more alarming is that Nix has 19 poor passes heading into Week 3, which is not a stat he wants to lead the league in.
At this point, it’s difficult to tell where the issue lies. Either Bo Nix is not as good as they thought, or Sean Payton needs to open the playbook. I think it’s a little bit of both. Bo was a bit overrated coming out of the draft, but Payton is doing him no favors with the play-calling. If Nix has as excellent a grasp of the playbook as Sean claims, it must be opened more. It’s too early to place blame on Bo. We can place blame on the plays called. That falls on Sean Payton.
Surtain Needs to be Surtain in Week 3
Let’s be clear here. I don’t think Surtain needs to improve or has done anything wrong; the numbers support that. Through two games, Surtain has allowed only five receptions on 12 balls thrown his way. That’s good for a QB rating of 55.9, 41.7% completion, 55 total yards, zero touchdowns, and only 4.6 yards per attempt—outstanding numbers, which is exactly what the Denver Broncos paid for.
Surtain and Denver agreed to a four-year, $96 million contract extension that keeps the highly-rated cornerback with the Broncos through the 2029 season. Also, $77.5 million of that contract is guaranteed. The Denver Broncos are placing a lot of faith in Patrick Surtain II. It’s well-deserved faith, but it needs to continue to be earned, especially after a lucrative contract extension.
In Week 3, Denver has a tough assignment against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, specifically Chris Goodwin. Goodwin has 15 receptions for 200 yards (on 16 targets). That’s good for an average of 13.3 yards per reception, 109 yards after the catch, and 12 first downs. That must be the assignment for Surtain. He must allow Vance Joseph to keep single coverage on Goodwin to provide more coverage to contain Mike Evans. If he can’t, that Denver defense is in for a long day in Week 3.
In Week 3, Team NBS has you covered. We have it all, whether it’s team-by-team coverage or before and after-game analysis. Also, be sure to follow us on Twitter to live reactions to all the action.
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