Week 14 – Broncos at Chargers

By Keith Richards

In Week 13, the Broncos’ winning streak ended after a tough 22-17 loss to the Texans. While the loss did put a big dent into the playoff hope for Denver, a win against the Chargers in Week 14 could keep their hopes alive. First, let’s look at where Denver stands heading into Week 14. Then, we’ll give our one offensive and defensive key to victory. Finally, we’ll make our prediction. Let’s ride!

Where Denver Stands Heading into Week 14

Heading into Week 14, though slim, it’s possible for the Broncos to both win the AFC West and make the playoffs. A lot of that is within their control, but a lot of it is not. Denver heads into Week 14 at 6-6, which is two games back of the Chiefs for the AFC West title and 1.5 games behind the Texans for the last Wild Card spot.

It will be equally as difficult to make the playoffs as the AFC West champ or as the Wild Card. Since my last look at the road to the playoffs for the Broncos, the landscape has changed. Though the loss to the Texans was costly, losses by other teams still left a small window for Denver to make it to the playoffs.

However, a win in Week 14 is of utmost importance. Without a win on Sunday, nothing else will matter. If the Broncos can win in Week 14, then much will depend on what happens with the Chiefs, Colts, and Steelers. I think the Texans’ schedule is just too favorable for them in this last stretch. I can’t say the same for Kansas City, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh.

KC still has games against the Bills, Bengals, and Chargers remaining. Pittsburgh? They still face the Colts, Bengals, Seahawks, and Ravens. It’s not much easier for Indy. They still face the Bengals, Texans, Falcons, and Steelers. It gets messy with all the teams ahead of the Broncos facing each other in the coming weeks, but the right combination of wins and losses could put Denver in the postseason.

For that to happen, though, the Broncos need to win out. As I stated before, that starts in Week 14. If Denver beats LA on Sunday, they have the Lions, Patriots, Raiders, and Chargers remaining. No doubt, the Lions will be tough, but it is a winnable game for the Mile High team. First, let’s see how they can come out of Week 14 with a win.

Week 14 Offensive Key to Victory

The key for the offense is to not turn the ball over. The offense turned the ball over three times, which led to the Broncos losing the turnover battle for the first time in weeks. All turnovers came in the passing game, which falls on the shoulders of Wilson at the end of the day. Denver had to rely on the passing game so much because they got down early 10-0.

The passing defense for the Chargers ranks 31st in yards allowed per game. So, in the end, it has to be the passing game that wins the game for the Broncos. For Denver to exploit Los Angeles’ weak pass defense, it must be done off of the play action.

If Russell Wilson, Javonte Williams, Jaleel McLaughlin, and Samaje Perine can force the Chargers to bring more into the box, it exposes an already weak Los Angeles secondary. In turn, that opens up more opportunities downfield for Sutton, Jeudy, and (hopefully) Mims. If the Denver offense can take an early lead and pass for over 300 yards, they win in Week 14.

Week 14 Defensive Key to Victory

It’s unfair to ask because they’ve been so stellar, but the Denver defense has to start turning the ball over again at a high rate. Against the Texans, the Broncos defense produced zero turnovers. This is for a couple of reasons.

First, CJ Stroud is just good. He is a playmaker, and he makes plays all game. The Denver defense was not able to rattle him much; if at all. Second, more pressure was placed on the defense from the offense giving the ball away three times. It didn’t lead to a large discrepancy in total plays between the teams, but it’s the quality of opportunities that was afforded to Houston.

If the Broncos are to win in Week 14, not only does the Denver offense need to reduce (or eliminate) giveaways, but the defense needs to amp up takeaways. Then, it increases the chance that the Broncos’ offense has quality opportunities by way of help from the defense.

Week 14 Prediction

Initially, in my prediction for the rest of the season, I picked the Chargers to win this game. As stated earlier, though, the landscape has changed. This is a must-win game for the playoff hopes of the Broncos.

Sean Payton will have a great plan for the offense. Vance Joseph will get the defense back to its winning streak ways. The Chargers had it easy last week with a 6-0 win over the Patriots. That won’t be the case in Week 14. I predict Denver will win this game 27-16.