NFL
By Keith Richards
At the beginning of the season, the Denver Broncos did not make many lists as a playoff team. Why should they? While the Broncos did have a good draft, it’s still not a playoff team on paper. Well, that’s why games are decided on the field. Not on paper. As their play on the field proves, the Denver Broncos are a playoff team. However, that’s where the feel-good story ends.
While the Broncos are proud of their season, they know they have an arduous task ahead. On Sunday, the 7th-seed Denver Broncos travel to Orchard Park to face the 2nd-seed. One of the most famous beliefs in the NFL is that any team can win on any given Sunday. If the Broncos seek to pull off the upset, here are their three keys to victory.
Create pressure and get sacks
In this 2024-25 NFL season, no team has more quarterback sacks than the Denver Broncos. With 63 sacks, they averaged 3.7 sacks per game. Sacks are drive killers. Whether they start or end a drive, teams find it hard to recover and sustain them. As a result of leading the NFL in sacks, Denver led the league with 360 sack yards lost.
So, for every sack, opposing offenses lost 5.7 yards. That’s the difference between 2nd and 10 and 2nd and 16. Instead of 3rd and 2, it’s 3rd and 8. No matter how you slice, that goes a long way in stopping a high-powered offense like the Buffalo Bills. Buffalo converts on 44.1% of their 3rd down plays, which is 7th in the NFL. Sacks will help to get Josh Allen off the field on 3rd down.
Keeping the MVP candidate off the field will help keep the score down. Buffalo averages 30.9 points per game, which is second in the league. Conversely, the Denver defense only gives up 18.3 points per game. Now, let’s reverse that. The Bills defense gives up 21.6 points per game, and the Broncos offense scores 25 points per game. The closer Denver can get the Bills to 18.3, the better, and sacks go a long way toward that.
More explosive plays
Regarding big plays, the Broncos are not the worst in the league, but they’re far from the best. You must take chances playing a team like the Buffalo Bills. Giving them the ball back is not ideal, but you can also take chances in early downs. The Bills allow opposing teams to convert 43.8% of their 3rd downs. So, Denver must take shots on first and second down.
According to NFL Next Gen Stats, they’re not a team that takes shots. The numbers speak for themselves. Look at some of these advanced passing stats for Bo Nix:
- 1% aggressiveness – league leader is 21.3
- 5 average completed air yards
- 4 average intended air yards – that’s -2.9 in average air yards differential (not good)
- -1.5 average air yards to sticks – indicates that the passing game relies heavily on yards after catch
Still, many factors contribute to those numbers. Teams do entice Bo to throw the short pass. Because of that, the Broncos have three receivers in the top 20 in average cushion for receivers. That means how many yards are between the defender and the receiver at the time of the snap. Marvins Mims, Jr. faces eight yards, Troy Franklin faces 7.4 yards, and Lil’Jordan Humphrey faces 6.8 yards. On the other side of the coin is average separation.
Denver has two players that perform well here as well. Mims averages 5.2 yards of separation, which is the best in the NFL. Troy Franklin is also in the top 20 in this statistic, with 3.8 yards of separation. Here’s the problem with that. Mims and Franklin combined for 105 targets. Meanwhile, Courtland Sutton leads the team with 135 targets.
23.8% of Nix’s passes go toward Courtland Sutton. However, Sutton only averages 2.5 yards of separation. In addition, Sutton also has a catch percentage of 60. Who’s to blame? In Troy Franklin’s case, he is. Franklin’s 52.8% catch rate is poor. Mims, however, has a great catch rate at 75%. We saw Mims factor more into the game plan as the season progressed.
Against the Bills, Sean Payton will need to lean on him a lot more. This will take some pressure off Sutton, give Nix easier downfield throws, and open the running game. An exemplary running game helps keep Josh Allen off the field.
Limit turnovers
This is the most straightforward but crucial goal for the Broncos on Sunday. First, I’m not saying that the Broncos are turnover machines. While they do have 19 turnovers heading into the playoffs, it’s a far cry from the worst in the league. Cleveland leads the league in that category with 34. so, Denver’s 25 takeaways mean they have a plus-six turnover margin. The problem is the Bills.
The Bills have been a turnover machine of a positive variety in the 2024-25 season. Heading into the playoffs, the Bills lead the league with a plus-24 turnover margin (32 takeaways against eight giveaways), a big difference from last season. In the 2023-24 season, Buffalo only had a plus-two turnover margin (30 takeaways against 28 giveaways). That all is because of Josh Allen and the all-time season he is having.
Look at the turnover differences between 2023 and 2024 for Allen:
- 18 INTs in 2023 to six in 2024
- Five fumbles (three lost) in 2023 to one fumble (none lost) in 2024
In other words, Josh had 21 turnovers in 2023 but only six in 2024. Fifteen fewer turnovers go a long way for a team. Bo Nix and the Denver Broncos must do their best to match that energy. It will be a long game if the Bills force turnovers and the Broncos do not respond.
The Prediction
Yes, the Denver Broncos can beat the Buffalo Bills on any given Sunday. I don’t think it will be this Sunday. The Denver Broncos have nothing to be ashamed of. Making the playoffs is a significant accomplishment, but their season ends in Orchard Park. The Bills will win this game 31-20.
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