NFL
By Keith Richards
Around mid-morning earlier Wednesday morning, the Broncos announced they would be benching Russell Wilson for the final two games of the season. The chief issue is that the team is not certain if Wilson is their future. From that, comes the secondary issue. If they are to move on from Russell, and he’s injured in the final two games, the Broncos would be on the hook for $37 million guaranteed money. Only a single question remains: What IS the problem in Denver?
“What is the problem in Denver?” That’s a loaded question that requires some unpacking. One thing is for certain. Russell Wilson was not the problem with the Broncos. His time in Denver has not been ideal, but there were far larger problems at play in Denver. Though not a lifetime Broncos fan, I have followed the team closely since I moved to Colorado 14 years ago.
Going back to the days of Peyton Manning, there has been a threefold problem. It’s a problem that I don’t think many of the fanbase recognize. As an “outsider” (or non-Native as they would say here), I tend to be a bit more objective. So, what is the threefold problem of the Denver Broncos? Luck, expectations, and impatience.
The Problem with Luck
Let’s take a trip down memory lane. We’ll rewind to March 20, 2012. On that day, the problem with luck began and no one noticed. It was on that day that the Denver Broncos signed Peyton Manning to a five-year, $96 million contract. On its face, it’s tough to see that as a problem with luck, but think of the circumstances that led to The Sherriff finding his way to Denver.
Not even two weeks prior, the Indianapolis Colts announced that they released the Super Bowl-winning quarterback. After requiring spinal fusion surgery, Manning would not play a down of football for the Colts in that 2011 season. Even though Indianapolis had signed Peyton to a five-year, $90 million contract, the 2012 draft presented an opportunity to resolve a problem for them.
In the 2012 draft, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III decided to enter that draft. The Colts had the number one pick. So, instead of facing the uncertainty of bringing back an aging quarterback fresh off of spinal fusion surgery, the Colts decided to move on. This was made possible by the availability and potential of the draft class.
So, right there, the Broncos’ problem with luck begins. It took an unexpected season-ending surgery, the availability of a (possibly) generational talent, and a god-awful season for the Colts to decide to move on from Manning. If all three of those pieces don’t fall into place, it’s highly unlikely Peyton Manning ever plays for the Denver Broncos.
The next problem with luck comes in the free agency periods between 2012 and 2014. With Peyton Manning, the Broncos had the bottle but had not yet caught the lightning. Between the 2012 and 2014 seasons, Denver would sign/keep the following players:
- Wes Welker – 2013
- Louis Vaquez – 2013
- DeMarcus Ware – 2014
- J. Ward – 2014
- Emmanuel Sanders – 2014
- Aqib Talib – 2014
Getting Peyton gave the Broncos the option to trade out of the first round and accumulate more picks. In that draft, the Broncos would go on to draft Derek Wolfe, Ronnie Hillman, and Danny Trevathan. All would be integral to the team’s success during the Manning run. Furthermore, without question, it’s unlikely that Talib, Sanders, Ware, and Ward sign with Denver sans Peyton.
Thus, in free agency, Peyton Manning was the bottle that and the catalyst to attract the lightning. It was a once-in-a-lifetime free agency period for Denver. From Elway’s retirement to that point, the Broncos weren’t terrible but they weren’t what you would call great either.
Their best season between 1998 and 2012 was the AFC Championship appearance in 2005. Outside of that, they either did not make the playoffs (eight times) or never made it past the divisional round (four times). So, of the threefold problem, the problem of luck is the chief and leads to the other two pieces of the problem.
The Problem of Expectations
Though Peyton Manning would retire after the 2015 Super Bowl, the Broncos still had a reasonably good roster. A lot of the defense remained intact and much of the Broncos offense remained. So, not without reason, the expectations for the team sans Manning were fairly high. That would be a problem. Super Bowl 50 would be the last playoff game for the Broncos since the retirement of Peyton.
With each quarterback after Peyton, the expectations for the team would quickly rise and then fall even faster. Here are the quarterbacks that have started for the Broncos from 2016 until the arrival of Russell Wilson in 2022:
- Trevor Siemian (24 games) – 2016 to 2017
- Brock Osweiler (4 games) – 2017
- Paxton Lynch (4 games) – 2016 to 2017
- Case Keenum – 2016
- Joe Flacco (8 games) – 2019
- Drew Lock (18 games) – 2019 to 2020
- Brandon Allen (3 games) – 2019
- Jeff Driskel (1 game) – 2020
- Brett Rypien (3 games) 2020 to 2022
- Teddy Bridgewater (14 games) – 2021
The only team that may have had more starters in that time frame is the Cleveland Browns. The inconsistency at quarterback was reflected in the record of the Broncos over that period:
- 2016 – 9-7
- 2017 – 5-11
- 2018 – 6-10
- 2019 – 7-9
- 2020 – 5-11
- 2021 – 7-10
The Broncos would also have several head coaches in that time frame. Gary Kubiak (left for health reasons), Joe DeCamillis (interim for Kubiak), Vance Joseph (two seasons/fired), Vic Fangio (three seasons/fired), Nathaniel Hackett (15 games/fired), and Jerry Rosburg (interim for Hackett). Enter the highest expectations of all: the acquisitions of Russell Wilson (2022) and Sean Payton (2023). This leads directly to the final piece of the puzzle.
The Problem with Impatience
Impatience became a problem for Broncos Country immediately with the signings of Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson. Outside of the two, the other biggest signings were DE Randy Gregory and DT D.J. Jones. That team remained largely the same otherwise. In hindsight, that was a problem.
I will readily admit that I assumed the Broncos would be a better team in 2022, but I also knew that they would have growing pains. I predicted that the Broncos would go 10-7 and make the playoffs. Even though many in the national media had Denver as a Super Bowl favorite, that was far from the case.
From the very first game, impatience with the fanbase began and would not relent. Denver would lose to Wilson’s former team (the Seahawks) in the first game, which caused quite a stir and began the narrative that signing Wilson was a mistake. Even after winning the next two games, the impatience grew.
The impatience would reach a fever pitch when the team went on to lose nine of the next ten games. There were calls for the heads of both Hackett and Wilson. Hackett would not survive the season, but Wilson would.
The problem repeated itself in 2023 with the hiring of Sean Payton. While Payton is a Super Bowl-winning coach, there was no significant change on the roster at that skill position. The team did make splash signings to shore up the offensive line, but much of everything else remained the same. The other major change was DC Evero leaving the team and Vance Joseph coming back to the team as the new DC.
Again, with the addition of Payton, the national media and Broncos Country expected that the team would be Super Bowl favorites. With several coaching changes and a brand new system to master, the beginning of the season was a complete disaster for Denver.
The Broncos would start the season by losing five of its first six games. By that point, the fan base and media held no quarters in their criticism. “FIRE PAYTON!” “WILSON IS WASHED!” “SEATTLE WON THAT TRADE!” Denver would then go on a five-game winning streak, which appeased the masses for the moment. That leads to now. Denver is 1-3 after the streak, on life support (with a hand on the plug) for the playoffs, and Wilson is benched.
How Can They Fix the Problem?
Is Russell Wilson the future for Denver? A fair and valid argument can be made that he is not. However, Russell wasn’t the full issue in 2022 and he’s been far from the issue in 2023. Wilson’s production had seen improvement before he got benched:
- 66.4% completion percentage (10th)
- 26 touchdown passes (tied for 6th)
- Eight interceptions (88th, which is good)
- Three rushing touchdowns (sixth among quarterbacks)
I’ve said from the beginning, that Russell Wilson has not been perfect in his time in Denver. From the jump in 2022, there were issues he needed to work on. Far from being the problem chief problem in his tenure with Denver, Wilson has undoubtedly become the scapegoat.
All signs point to Denver parting ways with number three after this season but don’t think that even scratches the surface of fixing the problem in Colorado. A simple rebuild will not fix the problem with the Broncos. They need an all-out reincarnation. The phoenix needs to complete one cycle of its life and rise from the ashes.
Unfortunately, I have no hope that will be the case. After all, the team decided to make no trades at the trade deadline. So, until then, we can expect the problem to remain the same in Denver. The luck is no longer a problem. The luck is long gone, but the problem of expectations and impatience will continue in 2024.
