NFL
By: Stephen Garner
After going up 2-0, the Suns have lost three straight for the first time this postseason.
They’re now in a closeout game as the team with their playoff lives on the line for the first time as well.
Plenty of adversities have stacked up since game two but not a single excuse has been made, true to their season-long brand.
As It Stands
Milwaukee took the driver’s seat from game to game since game three via:
- 13.6 OREBs – winning second-chance points battle and points in the paint as a result
- Winning turnover battle
- Winning fastbreak battle
In game six, of their seven-man rotation, the Bucks saw everyone sans their leading scorers (Antetokounmpo and Middleton) shoot 50% or better from deep.
Even more, Jrue Holiday shot 60% from the field. He made shots and plays that he hasn’t made all series on Saturday.
Collectively, they saw atypical tough shot-making and scoring from their ancillary players that cannot be accounted for.
Lastly, they saw 32, 29, and 27 from Giannis, Middleton, and Holiday respectively. Their biggest knock has been their top three players not all playing well simultaneously. They got a semblance of that connectivity for the first time all playoffs in game five.
All of this compiled for (just) a four-point win.
Are these entities from game five sustainable?
For the Suns ⤵️
Stay the course and stick to your guns.
My points of emphasis for the series were:
- Crunch time execution
- Pick and roll play
- Mid-range mastery
- Ayton dominance
- Defensive connectivity
- Pace of play
In-game five they checked off on all but two of these, being Ayton dominance and defensive connectivity.
Aside from the absolutely absurd shot-making that took place for the Bucks, Phoenix needs their defensive connectivity to resurface for sustained stretches. Their guards have to be better getting over the screens to deter Holiday from getting to his spots in pick and roll, and also do their backline defense a favor in not having to play 2v3 underneath the screen (putting unnecessary stress on Ayton and whoever their short corner defender may be between Crowder/Bridges/Johnson/Craig)
Ayton must continue to dive hard to the basket on the roll. His gravity is imperative! He also needs to take advantage of when the Bucks switch, as he did earlier in the series. His production, as has been all playoffs, is vital. Along with his transition rim running, these are the two phases he must be dominant in. When he is a factor early, his gravity late creates more offense whether he gets the ball or not. He unlocks their peak level.
Where they succeeded was in pick and roll, setting screens even higher than the 3-point line now when Lopez is on the floor (in deep too coverage of course). It then becomes 5v4 behind the screen, with both the ball handle and Ayton going downhill. Phoenix must continue taking full advantage of this action with Paul, Booker, and Payne as the ball handlers. Pick and roll play has been great and so has their mid-range production.
This here entails it all:
The Suns are the first team in NBA history to lose a playoff game shooting 55% from the field and 60% from three. pic.twitter.com/X8AOhcPbuR
— StatMuse (@statmuse) July 18, 2021
If the Suns can sustain the level of play they had from game five offensively, their chances of winning game six remain extremely high. It’d take another anomaly-type Herculean effort from Milwaukee’s big three to win with the Suns clicking to that extent. It’s as simple as that.
Of Note:
The Bucks have outscored the Suns by a mere 1.4 points per game on the series. These games have been toss-ups for the most part.
Prediction:
Suns win 118-114 and force a game seven back at home.
*All stats and information used come directly from basketball-reference.com unless stated otherwise and are accurate entering play on 7.2021*
