NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
*All stats/grades are via PFF
After nine seasons, Derek Carr’s time with the Las Vegas Raiders is coming to an end. On Thursday, he posted his farewell to the Raiders fanbase. His best season came in 2016 when he threw for nearly 4,000 yards, 28 TDs, and only 6 INTs.
While he was never viewed as an elite quarterback, he was the definition of consistent. The Raiders knew what type of quarterback they were going to have every season. This is a luxury some teams don’t have.
The Commanders are thought to be a favorite to land the three-time pro bowler. According to SportsLine, Washington has the 3rd highest odds of trading for Carr (+700), with only the Jets and Colts ahead of them.
Here is why the Commanders should and shouldn’t trade for Derek Carr.
Why the Commanders Should Trade for Carr
Washington has had a different starting quarterback to begin the season for each of the last five years. Since Rivera took over in 2020, they have had eight different starting quarterbacks. This team is desperate for consistency at the position. While Carr isn’t Mahomes or Allen, he would be the best quarterback Washington has had since Kirk Cousins.
Carr’s 66.6 grade in 2022 is the 2nd lowest of his career. Only his rookie season was lower. For comparison, since 2020, Kyle Allen’s 68.5 grade (in 2020) was the highest-graded season among all Washington quarterbacks with multiple starts.
Many are skeptical of trading/signing another veteran quarterback for a 3rd straight season. However, Carr is a much better quarterback than Fitzpatrick and Wentz. The Commanders have a top-10 defense and a great receiving core. If they can get the offensive line figured out, the quarterback would be the only weak point on the roster. Adding Carr would eliminate this weak spot. Of all the quarterbacks available this offseason, Carr is arguably the best. He is at least the best one that Washington has a realistic shot at obtaining.
Why the Commanders Shouldn’t Trade for Carr
The obvious answer to this question is looking at Washington’s last two seasons. Even if Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t get injured, it was a long shot for them to reach or even win a playoff game. Rivera and company gave up two 3rd rounders for Wentz. The failure of these two quarterbacks should tell this front office and Rivera to avoid making a similar move for a third straight offseason.
Teams trading for a veteran quarterback do not have a very successful track record. Of the last 18 Super Bowl winners, 14 of the quarterbacks were drafted by that team. To go even further, of the last 25 Super Bowls, 24 of the winning quarterbacks were either drafted by that team or signed in free agency. Simply put, trading for a veteran quarterback rarely works.
While I still view Carr as a good quarterback, his performance this season is worrisome. This could just be an off year, or maybe it’s the start of his decline. Not many quarterbacks would get noticeably worse after being given the best wide receiver in the league to play with. After getting burned by veteran quarterbacks, Washington may not want to risk Carr failing to bounce back from this season.
Sam Howell was arguably the best rookie quarterback in the preseason this year. Of course, playing well against 3rd stringers doesn’t mean much in the long run. However, his performance against a talented Dallas defense was impressive. If Rivera saw enough from Howell throughout the season, he could opt to save a lot of draft capital and cap space and roll with him in 2023. This would allow for more resources to fix the offensive line and maintain a dominant defense next season.
Conclusion
Trading for Carr would give Washington a legitimate starting quarterback, something they haven’t had in a long time. With the talent on the defense and weapons on offense, they don’t necessarily need an MVP-caliber quarterback to be successful next year.
However, giving up assets to trade for Carr could hurt them in the long run. After cutting Wentz, Washington will have around $34 million in cap space. PFF projects Carr gets traded for a 1st and 3rd rounder while acquiring a contract worth $116.3 million over 3 years ($38.6 million annually). This is a steep price for a 32-year-old quarterback coming off one of the worst seasons in his career.
Final Verdict: Avoid trading for Carr
While Carr is a good quarterback, I am not sure the investment will be worth it. Even if the price is substantially cheaper than its projection, they should still pass. The best thing for this team is to have a quarterback on a cheap deal and continue to build the roster. If a quarterback they like falls in the draft, Washington should jump at the opportunity. Howell would then get a shot to prove what he can do while a 1st round quarterback sits and develops.
