NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
*All stats/grades are via PFF
Washington selected Antonio Gibson in the 2020 NFL Draft with the 2nd pick in the 3rd round. He quickly established himself as the best RB on the roster. He finished the year with 1,077 total yards and 11 TDs. Gibson’s 83.4 rushing grade ranked 7th best among qualifying RBs.
Many expected him to take another step up and develop into one of the league’s best RBs. However, he failed to recapture the magic of his rookie campaign in the next two seasons.
In this article, I will look at reasons why Gibson should consider a position change in 2023.
Gibson’s Falloff
As previously mentioned, Gibson’s rookie season was impressive. Even more, so considering he didn’t play running back in college. Unfortunately, it seems 2020 was his peak. Here is Gibson’s rate of forced missed tackles (how often he forced a tackler to miss) by year:
2020: 21.2%
2021: 15.1%
2022: 8.7%
For comparison, Brain Robinson’s rate in 2022 was 15.6%. The sizable dropoff from year to year is concerning. Gibson’s rushing grade has also fallen quite a bit since his rookie season. After ranking 7th best in 2020, he has only ranked 50th of 61 and 48th of 62 in the past two seasons.
His yards per attempt have also dropped each year. His 3.7 yards/carry average in 2022 ranked 57th of 62. In nearly every area, Gibson has fallen off compared to his rookie season.
Brian Robinson is RB1
The Commanders took Brian Robinson in the 3rd round of last year’s draft. He quickly won the starting gig in training camp. Unfoutantly, due to the shooting incident, he missed the first four games of the season. Robinson then took over the majority of carries once he was 100% healthy.
It is clear going into 2023 that Robinson will be the starting running back again. There is also a chance Washington takes another running back late in this year’s draft. If they do, it will likely be a 3rd down/receiving-type back. Gibson had limited opportunities once Robinson was 100%. Having a legitimate 3rd down back could mean even fewer touches for Gibson in 2023.
Jonathan Williams was just resigned to a one-year deal last week. Williams has been a solid running back with the limited touches he has received. In 149 attempts, Gibson forced 13 missed tackles. In only 37 attempts, Williams forced 11 missed tackles. Williams also averaged .4 more yards per carry this season compared to Gibson.
Between Robinson, Willaims, and a possible rookie, Antonio Gibson could see a serious decline in opportunities next season.
Deebo Samuel Role
I’m not saying Gibson should turn into an exclusive wide receiver. He wouldn’t work in that role. However, I would like to see him line up in various positions. He is at his best when he has the ball in an open space. Bubble screens from the slot, tunnel screens when out wide, pop passes, etc. Give him the ball and let him go to work.
I have always felt his skillset has been suppressed by using him as a traditional running back. Now that Robinson is RB1, I hope Bieniemy will use Gibson in that Deebo-type role.
Potential New Contract
Gibson has one year remaining on his rookie contract. If his role in Washington remains the same next season or declines, it will be hard for him to attract interest and money from teams. The market for running backs is already shrinking with it being a pass-heavy league. I imagine it would be hard for him to land a big deal because of that, especially when you factor in his regression.
If Gibson can show potential as a dual-threat weapon, he could warrant more money in free agency.
