NFL
By: Jesse Rosales
As we near the end of the NHL regular season and look toward the Stanley Cup Playoffs, we take a look at the betting market for the NHL Awards. What is interesting about this season is the amount of heavy, and I mean heavy favorites in a lot of these categories. Is there any value in looking at the underdogs? Let’s dive in and find out.
What are the End of Season NHL Awards?
The Awards are broken down into several categories. Offensive awards, defensive awards, goaltender awards, and rookie awards. The Hart Memorial Trophy is generally looked at as the most prestigious and represents the player who is considered to be the most valuable to his team (MVP).
When are the NHL Awards given out? They will be given on June 26th in Nashville at the Bridgestone Arena and for the first time since 2006, will take place at the same location as the NHL Draft which is set to happen on June 28th. I really do like the idea of having the 2 major events at the same location at the same time. Really good idea NHL.
NHL Awards Predictions #1: Rocket Richard Trophy
The Rocket Richard Trophy is the NHL Award given to the league’s leader in goals scored each season. The Eastern Conference has really dominated this award over the past 15+ years winning it consecutively over the past 12. This year could be the year that the Western Conference breaks that streak. Connor McDavid is currently at 60 goals and holds an 11-goal lead over David “Pasta” Pastrnak who is currently in second place with 49 goals.
At last check, Connor McDavid was a -400 favorite. It is hard to even find an available betting line at this point on this award. Even if I could find a line, it’s either McDavid or nothing. With ~10 games to go, there is no reasonable path for Pasta to catch him. For the first time in his career, McDavid will win the Rocket Richard Trophy.
NHL Awards Predictions #2: Calder Trophy
The Calder Memorial Trophy is awarded to the NHL’s best rookie player at the end of the regular season. This NHL award is named after the first president of the NHL, Frank Calder. The minor league AHL (American Hockey League) awards its champion the Calder Cup, as the league is a ‘Triple-A’ affiliate of the NHL.
The betting market on this NHL award also provides no real value at this point. Earlier in the season there was an intriguing race between Mason McTavish of Anehiem, Logan Thompson of Vegas, and Matty Beniers of the Seattle Kraken. Due mostly to injuries, this race is pretty much over and Matty Beniers is going to win this NHL award as a -1250 favorite to Vegas oddsmakers.
NHL Award Predictions #3: Jack Adams Trophy
The Jack Adams Award is given to the best coach of the NHL regular season. This NHL award does not always go to the team who had the best season but rather to the team that extended the most expectations. The last coach to win the Adams and then take his team to the championship was John Tortorella of the Lightning in 2004. Only two other coaches who have won the Cup have also won the award.
This year the favorite is Jim Montgomery of the Boston Bruins at +200 odds. With the season the Bruins have had its definitely not a surprise to see his name at the top. Perhaps Montgomery and break the curse of coaches to win the Jack Adams award and win the Stanley Cup in the same season. That being said, +200 does provide some value, but Lindy Ruff who is the coach of the New Jersey Devils really catches my eye at +600. That would be my play here.
NHL Awards Predictions #4: James Norris Trophy
The James Norris Trophy is given to the best defenseman in the NHL. This NHL award was named after former Detroit Red Wings owner James Norris, with Red Kelly winning the first award in 1953. Previous winners include Cale Makar, Adam Fox, Roman Josi, Victor Hedman, and Erik Karlsson.
Cale Makar was a lock to win the award last season given his truly remarkable rookie campaign. This year instead of a new up-and-comer, we have the wily ol’ veteran in Erik Karlsson making his case to win his third Norris Trophy. He currently is a -375 favorite to win this NHL award. He is the favorite due to the season he has had offensive, which is weird to say for an award given to the best defenseman in the league.
That all being said there isn’t really a ton of value to be had on a -375 favorite, but 2 long shots that might be worth taking a stab at would be previous Norris winners Adam Fox and Cale Makar. Both are currently at +1000 odds. I would lean a little bit more toward Adam Fox, but what Cale has done over his past 9 games is certainly deserving of him being in this conversation.
NHL Awards Predictions #5: Vezina Trophy
The Vezina Trophy is awarded to the NHL’s best goalie at the end of the regular season. The winner of this award is voted on by the NHL general managers and is named after former Montreal Canadiens goalie Georges Vezina. Previous winners of this award truly represent the “who’s who” of elite goaltending in the NHL. Check out the list here: https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-vezina-trophy-winners-complete-list/c-287773436
This year there is no question of who is going to win the NHL Award for best goaltender. It’s Linus Ullmark of the Boston Bruins and it’s not even close. Ullmark has a 81.8% win percentage, a 1.92 goals-against-average, and a .937 save percentage. All best numbers in the NHL. Oh yeah, and he scored a goal… Not even worth looking at other options on the betting card, this one is over.
NHL Awards Predictions #6: Hart Trophy
The Hart Memorial Trophy is named after Dr. David Hart, who donated the award and was the father of Montreal Canadiens coach Cecil Hart. It is awarded to the NHL player who is considered the most valuable player for their team. Let’s be honest, Connor McDavid could literally stop playing hockey for the rest of the season and still be the UNAMIOUS winner of this award (for the second time!). He has had one of the greatest seasons of ALL time by any stat measurement.
McDavid has already won this NHL award twice but this one feels different. He has dominated and I mean DOMINATED against the most elite and competitive hockey talent on the planet this season. He simply seems to have this “switch” he can turn on whenever he wants to which basically acts like a cheat code. If aliens came to the planet and were putting together a universal hockey tournament and we were allowed to select one player to save our planet, it would be Connor McDavid.
Anyone who doesn’t have him as number #1 on their ballot this season should be ashamed of themselves. He will become the first player in NHL history to unanimously win the Hart Trophy multiple times and well deserved. We are all the lucky ones, Connor.
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