NFL
By: Greg Rector
Running backs have lost positional value in this era both at the NFL draft and for a lot of teams as well. Yes, the big contracts for Ezekiel Elliott and others are controversial. I get that. What I also get is the fact that in NFL games this season teams are combining for over 240 rushing yards per game on average. That is up by a large margin over the last several seasons. Some are talking about how scoring is down and many are blaming the running game. Well, last season it was 47 points a game combined, this season it’s 43 points. Not a massive difference.
Why It Matters
In this era of pass-happy football where everyone is fixated on the big plays through the air, being able to control the football thanks to a good rushing attack is just good old common sense. For starters, you can keep an opponent with one of those high-powered passing attacks off the field. They can’t score from the sideline. If done properly at the end of a half or even more importantly in the 4th quarter it can prevent giving an opponent momentum or dash their hopes of beating you. Secondly, it allows a team to win an often-overlooked intangible, time of possession. Just check out the stats and see how often the team that wins the time of possession also wins the game. The little things matter in football. The unbeaten Eagles lead the league in time of possession for the doubters. We have watched Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Jonathan Taylor, and other backs be the difference in many games.
The Biggest Changers
In 2021 the Indianapolis Colts averaged 149.4 yards rushing per game, they are only averaging 98.7 yards this season. A 9-8 record last year. This season they will not come anywhere near that finish in 2022. The most improved team by far is the Chicago Bears. 118.7 yards last season has blown up to 201.7 this season (Yes a lot has to do with Justin Fields) however David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert are also helping their overall numbers. Last season they were 6-11 while they may only be 3-7 so far it’s far more on the changes that have happened on their defense as far as the overall record goes. The Bears have been more competitive this year. The Colts got back to running Taylor for the first time all season and what do you know a 25-20 victory over the Raiders ensued. They totaled 207 yards rushing this weekend. The Eagles are actually averaging five yards less rushing per game in 2022, not enough of a difference at all.
Take What An Opponent Gives You
Teams are loading up both their pass coverages and attacking quarterbacks for the sacks. What this has done is given the rushing attacks and running backs generally a far easier time gaining yardage. Defenses are worried about the passing game to such a huge degree and I understand that but the run defenses have been abysmal league-wide. The basic tenets of staying in your lane, along with filling in gaps have been abandoned. There are some exceptions like the Dolphins’ game this weekend against the Browns, but those are few and far between. this weekend saw the Cowboys and Packers combine for 367 rushing yards. The biggest reason both teams were successful? Watch both the Cowboys and Packers edge players. There’s something called “Setting an Edge,” that defensive ends and when called upon outside linebackers need to do to prevent the outside run. It isn’t happening on so many plays because the edge player is thinking more about the pass and getting to the quarterback than they are about the running game.
What It Means
As you all know I am an NFL draft fanatic. There are some awfully good running backs in the 2023 NFL Draft. Bijan Robinson from Texas, Blake Corum from Michigan, and others. Remember how I wrote about positional value? The folks so wrapped up in that will be screaming loudly when a team drafts a running back in the first round. The running back quality is such that you won’t see teams wait until the seventh round to draft an Isiah Pacheco as Kansas City did this past draft, or see a Dameon Pierce wait until the fourth round. It also means those contracts everyone whines about will be at a higher cost than most will like. Tough luck folks, in football it costs money to keep good players, even the devalued running back.
As always you can find me on Twitter @GregCowboys
