NFL
By: Greg Rector
Buffalo Bills 3-1 at Kansas City Chiefs 2-2 8:20 PM Sunday, October 10th
We should be in for another treat of a primetime game when the Bills travel to Kansas City to play the Chiefs Sunday night. Currently with the Chiefs favored at -2.5 the sportsbooks are saying this is a pick’em game. So far there has really only been one primetime game that wasn’t tremendous (Panthers vs Texans) fans are being treated to some truly exciting games. This one should be no exception. Let’s break down this match-up.
Chiefs Offense vs Bills Defence
Irresistible force meets the immovable object possibly? Granted the Dolphins and Texans offenses are far from offensive juggernauts, even so, the Bills’ two shutouts are nonetheless impressive in this day of offenses having every advantage against the defense. To not even give up a field goal no matter how weak the opponent is an accomplishment in this league. The Bills are impressively only allowing 4.0 yards per play, 3rd in the league overall. Their draft picks on the edge ( Gregory Rousseau and Boogie Basham) are both contributing to a group that unlike last season aren’t missing tackles and AJ Epenesa who many were disappointed in during his rookie campaign, looks like a totally different player. Meanwhile, from a Kansas City perspective, their offense has been putting up an average of 33.5 points a game, yet are only 2-2. After two seasons of just 5 and 6 interceptions, Patrick Mahomes has 4 this year. Up until the Eagles game, Tyreek Hill was pretty quiet as teams have taken him out of his comfort zone. The Bills’ defense has been equally stout against the run and the pass. With Clyde Edwards-Helaire being decent but not a game-breaker out of the backfield, I see the Chiefs needing to have a big game from their big three of Mahomes, Kelce, Hill. You can bet the Bills will want to disrupt those plans as much as possible. For me, if the Bills defense neutralizes the running game and makes Mahomes one-dimensional they have a shot at beating Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium. Tre’Davious White vs Tyreek Hill will be the biggest one on one matchup in this game. The advantage here very slightly goes to the home team, as I think Chiefs OC Eric Bienemy is one of the very best coaches in the league.
Bills Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Here’s where a mismatch seems just too obvious as the Buffalo Bills offense ranks 4th overall and faces a Chiefs defense that now ranks 31st of 32 teams. The Chiefs defense is coming off of allowing Eagles QB Jalen Hurts to throw for 387 yards against them. If you believe the internet Hurts is a below-average QB right? The Eagles offense moved upfield at will against this group. Here’s the bad news Chiefs fans, Josh Allen has been finding his bevy of targets at will. I hear a lot about the Bills not having a running game, well Moss and Singletary together have rushed for just over 100 yards a game this season combined with 4 rushing touchdowns. If Singletary would stop fumbling the ball (4 fumbles) they would be an even better duo. The Chiefs defense against the run has been brutal. That’s led to them being vulnerable in the passing game and as I write this they are you guessed it 31st in the league in passing yards against. As much as the Hill vs White matchup will be exciting, I don’t see a Chiefs corner that’s playing to a level where Stefon Diggs doesn’t have a big night. If you try doubling Diggs. the Bills will find Emanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, or TE Dawson Knox who has 4 red – zone TD’s already. Whatever went wrong for the Bills against the Pittsburgh Steelers in week one appears to have been fixed the last three weeks. The balance and the execution have been excellent the last three weeks.
Intangibles and Prediction
This game really comes down to the little things for me. Win the turnover battle and likely win the game. Can the Bills keep the quick-strike Chiefs offense on the bench especially to end the half and again late in the 4th quarter? Can the Kansas City defense make stops to get Mahomes and company more opportunities? Whichever team does get the advantage will win. Personally I am taking the team that’s been playing better overall in this one. I have the Buffalo Bills winning a shootout 45 to 38. The Chiefs simply give up too many yards, and I believe they will be on the short-end of the score after what should be another exciting primetime game.
As always you can find me on Twitter @GregCowboys[pickup_prop id=”13122″]
