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Home Sports NBA

The NBA Trade Deadline and the Effect on Betting Odds

by Keith Richards
March 31, 2021
in NBA
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March 25th at 3 PM EST, the NBA trade deadline came and went. Before today, there had not been much movement in the league as far as trades go. In the last few hours before the NBA trade deadline, the league exploded with deals! Some players who we thought would be on the move did switch teams. However, some who we thought would be on the move were not. Without question, the landscape of the NBA changed. As a natural result, the NBA trade deadline moves altered the outlook of NBA betting as well. Let us discuss.

NBA Trade Deadline
LeBron James and Anthony Davis led the Los Angeles Lakers to a championship this October in their first season together.Credit…Ashley Landis-Pool/Getty Images



Before the NBA trade deadline, SportsBettingDime’s Championship odds page showed little movement. One of the most significant leaps in betting odds belonged to the Brooklyn Nets. After they traded for James Harden, they were immediately seen as a favorite to win it all. After the NBA trade deadline, not much changed in that respect. The Nets and Los Angeles Lakers were tied as favorites to win the NBA Championship at +285. However, a couple of teams made significant leaps after the NBA trade deadline passed.

Hands down, the team that won the day on NBA trade deadline day was the Denver Nuggets. Early in the day, Denver was able to acquire JaVale McGee from the Cleveland Cavaliers. In return, the Cavs received Isaiah Hartenstein and two second-round draft picks. McGee will add some vital length and defense for the Nuggets. More importantly, JaVale will take some pressure and minutes off of Nikola Jokic. The Nuggets did not stop there.

NBA Trade Deadline
Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images



A couple of hours later, Denver shipped Gary Harris, R.J. Hampton, and a protected 2025 first-round pick to the Orlando Magic for Aaron Gordon. This may have been the move that put the Nuggets in serious contention. Denver has always been a guard-heavy team lacking in forward and center depth. The additions of McGee and Gordon all but eliminate that issue.

Additionally, Gary Harris has been a big part of the team for so long, but he no longer fits the team. He could not stay healthy, and Will Barton made Harris obsolete. Losing Hampton is a tough blow, but Denver is still guard-heavy enough to absorb that loss. The Nuggets saw the most significant jump in betting odds after the NBA trade deadline. Currently, they sit at +1600, which is the best they’ve been in a long time.

NBA Trade Deadline

Second, the busiest team of the day was the Orlando Magic. Outside of trading Gordon to Denver, the Magic shipped Vucevic to the Bulls and Evan Fournier to the Celtics. Orlando seems to be in full rebuild mode and has a rough road ahead. The Miami Heat acquired Victor Oladipo from the Houston Rockets for Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, and the 2022 first-round pick, which was an excellent move. The Raptors traded Norman Powell to the Blazers. Shockingly, that was not the most significant move of the day for the Toronto Raptors.

NBA Trade Deadline
MARY HOLT/USA TODAY SPORTS



The most notable NBA trade deadline move for the Raptors was the lack of action. After much speculation, Kyle Lowry was not traded. There were rumors of deals being close with the Lakers, Sixers, and Heat, but no one pulled the trigger. The most significant factors in no deal going down appear to be Lowry’s age and his expiring contract. So, for now, Lowry remains in Toronto, but he likely will not be there after this season.

NBA Trade Deadline

There is still considerable distance between the Lakers, Nets, and the rest of the league concerning championship favorites. With LeBron James injury, the road to repeat for the Lakers is more difficult after the NBA trade deadline. Los Angeles still has moves they can make in the buyout market, but Frank Vogel has to be sweating a little more after today. Of course, games will still play out on the court, but there is new betting value in teams like the Denver Nuggets and Miami Heat after the NBA trade deadline.

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Keith Richards

Keith Richards

Keith Richards is an IT Professional by day and a sports junkie by night (and day for the most part as well). A southern boy living in the mountains of Denver, Keith recently graduated with his BS in Business Administration from CSU-Global Campus. He enjoys spending time with this family and speaking sports truth on Twitter and Crossing the Line.

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