NFL
By: Mark T. Wilson
The Miami Heat is betting that house on Damian Lillard when they may not need him. Coming off their Finals loss against the Denver Nuggets, Pat Riley is putting all his cards on the table and that may backfire for a team that has been one of the top in the East for the past 3-4 years.
Adding Lillard is a win for any team but snagging him comes at a price. And according to reports, it’s a hefty price. The supposed deal on the table is Tyler Herro (and a filler player) and 3 draft picks for Lillard. In essence, that deal makes sense for everyone but the Heat.
Lillard, despite getting up there in age is still one of the best in the NBA. Last season, he averaged 32.2 points, 7.3 assists while shooting 46.3 percent from the field. The Heat could have used that production in the Finals. But this is where things can get a bit rocky for the Miami Heat if they make this move.
Age-wise, Herro is a younger player and those 3 draft picks will come in handy. Jimmy Butler will be 34 at the start of the regular season and as good as he’s been, Butler will slow down. Bam Adebayo is a good player but he’s not a franchise player. While adding Lillard will put the Heat back in the title conversation at least for another 2 years, they’re not the only team improving.
This offseason the Heat lost a few valuable players in Max Strus and Gabe Vincent. Both players played their role and now the Heat must find a way to account for their production. Adding Lillard will help, plus give the Heat a Big 3. However, is that Big 3 and lack of a bench good enough to beat the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, or even the New York Knicks in a 7-game series?
Many will look to their success in the playoffs this past season and say yes. But let’s be frank here. The Celtics have improved with the addition of Kristaps Porzingis. The Knicks added Donte DiVincenzo, and the Bucks should be healthy. The Heat may have had their best chance to win it all and failed.
It costs to win in this league and the Miami Heat cannot afford to play this game. A Big 3 does not guarantee a championship. Just ask the Brooklyn Nets, Phoenix Suns, or even the Los Angeles Clippers. So much has to go right and one of those things has to be depth. If this trade is done, the Heat will be robbed of their current depth and depth for the future.
This is where I think Portland is doing the right thing by not taking a deal so fast from Miami. 3 first-round picks sound promising but let’s look ahead, At this moment, the Heat are capable of trading two first-round picks and three first-round swaps. The two exceptions within their seven-year allotment are in 2025 and 2026.
Should The Miami Heat Nix The Lillard Trade
They currently owe the Oklahoma City Thunder their lottery-protected pick in 2025, but if it does not convey, it becomes unprotected in 2026. That means they cannot trade any picks outright until 2028. In other words: they can offer swaps in 2024, 2027, and 2029 along with unprotected picks in 2028 and 2030. But they can wqork around that if another team gets involved.
If I’m the Blazers GM, I’m laughing at this proposal. Think about it. With Lillard, the Heat are pre vie we to be a top-tier team in the East, meaning, they will not be in the Lottery any time soon. How does this benefit the Blazers? We’re talking about giving up Lillard for picks that will fall in the late 20s. While some good players have been selected later in the first round, who’s to say that will happen for the Blazers?
This is a business and the Blazers must do what’s best for them. Yes, they want to honor Lillard’s wishes but if his wishes hurt the future of the Blazers, then what are they supposed to do?
The East is not a cakewalk. Teams are improving and the Heat are doing their best to put their hat in the ring. Their roster now, well, it’s not going to get it done despite what transpired last season. Who will play those vital bench minutes? Kyle Lowry could be dealt to the Blazers or maybe even a 3rd team that may be needed to pull this deal off. Then you have to factor in what happens with Duncan Robinson who is still owed almost $20M for the next 2 seasons and 3 if he decides to opt in for the 2025 season.
And then the dreaded Salary Cap issue. The Heat’s will be through the roof once they take on Lillard’s remaining deal. Is Riley really that thirsty for another title that he’s willing to sacrifice it all? If this move would put them above every team in the East, I say go for it, but in reality, this will still have them between 3rd and 5th best.
What makes this even such a highly discussed topic is that Lillard only wants to go to Miami but the Heat just don’t have the pieces the Blazers need that will make them better than they were with Lillard on the team.
Lillard will improve the Miami Heat but for just a few games. It will be fun to watch their Big 3 and the other big dawg teams but in a 7-game series, the Miami Heat will be vulnerable.
