NFL
By Keith Richards
There comes a time when a man must admit being wrong. So in my Week 3 preview, I picked the Broncos to lose. I’ve never been so happy to be incorrect. Denver pulled out the victory against a very stingy 49ers defense. The win brings the Broncos to 2-1 on the season. Now, we look forward to Week 4, where Denver is on the road against the Raiders of Las Vegas. So, let’s ride and discuss the offensive and defensive keys to victory.
Defensive Keys to Victory
I’m switching it up this week! Since the defense drives this team, let’s first look at the defensive keys to victory in Week 4. But, before discussing the keys, let’s take a moment to praise this defense. Currently, the Broncos’ defense gives up only 251.3 yards per game and 12 points per game. Respectively, that’s 3rd and 2nd in the NFL. However, with all the media pressure put on the Denver offense, the Denver defense has taken the actual pressure and thrived. Onto the keys to victory in Week 4 now!
The first and most important key is for Patrick Surtain II to win the battle against Davante Adams. Don’t get me wrong. PSII has been phenomenal so far this season. On 15 targets, he’s allowed eight completions, but only for 45 total yards. That’s only 5.6 yards per completion and 3.0 yards per target. Pat has been an absolute stud, but he hasn’t faced anyone like Adams yet.
Truthfully, Adams hasn’t been himself to start this season. Davante has 17 catches (on 34 targets) for 189 yards and three touchdowns. The touchdown pace is good, but the yardage and reception pace is not. Eventually, Adams will break free. He’s on a new team with a new quarterback. Surtain cannot let that freedom to occur in Week 4. It’ll be the biggest test Pat has faced all season, and it’s a test he must pass.
The second key to victory for the defense in Week 4 is to get turnovers. Besides reducing explosive plays from Samuel and Aiyuk, the most significant victory for the Broncos in their last win was winning the turnover battle. Denver had three turnovers, and San Francisco had zero. With an offense struggling to find its identity (spoiler alert: an offensive key to victory), the defense must give the offense every opportunity to improve. The team will be in a great position to win if the Denver defense can produce three turnovers again.
Now, let’s discuss the offensive keys to victory.
Offensive Key to Victory
In Week 3, the final score in the Denver win was 11-10. So, there was not a lot of scoring. To be exact, the Broncos scored on a touchdown (failed two-point conversion), a field goal, and a safety. With such little scoring, it was a busy night for Corliss Waitman. The Denver kicker would punt ten times. For there to be no repeat performance, the Broncos must follow this key to victory in Week 4: Let Russ cook…a little.
In the last two victories for Denver, the cause has been due to two reasons. First, the defense has just been absolutely stellar, especially in the second half. Second, has been drives in the 4th quarter by the struggling offense. On Sunday night, we saw something in that 4th quarter drive that we haven’t seen in this young season: Russ cooked.
The lazy analysis says Russ is washed and well past his prime. Plain and simple, that is not true. What is true is that Hackett and Wilson need to find a happy medium. A lot of Hackett’s scheme on offense appears to be Russell working within the pocket. However, Wilson has been most successful in his career operating outside the pocket. So, whether it’s more shotgun (outside of goal-to-go situations) or more bootlegs, Hackett and Russ have to figure out a middle ground that allows both to be happy.
Unfortunately, what Denver is doing on offense right now is not working consistently. It will be on Wilson, Hackett, and the offensive coordinator to continue to work together to find something that does work consistently. When the Broncos offense does find that middle ground, they will be the danger we all thought they would be. There’s no better time to start than in Week 4.
The Prediction
Truthfully, the Raiders and Broncos have both struggled on offense to start the season. What’s the difference? The Broncos’ defense allows 12 points per game, and the Raiders’ defense allows 25.7 points per game. Denver is 2-1 but should be 3-0. Las Vegas very much looks like a 0-3 team. While I caution and deem this a trap game, I’m picking the Broncos 24-16.
Don’t miss the other wall-to-wall NFL coverage with Nuts and Bolts Sports. But, more importantly, make sure your Broncos gear is fresh for the matchup against the hated Raiders here.
