NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
*All stats/grades listed are via PFF
The hype surrounding Bijan Robinson to Washington seems to grow each week. According to FanDuel, the Commanders currently have the third-highest betting odds to draft Bijan Robinson at +800.
There is no denying Robinson’s talent and production at Texas. Bijan finished the 2022 season with 1,575 rushing yards on 257 carries (6.1 yds/carry) and 18 TDs. He also led college football with the most missed tackles forced with 104. His 95.3 overall grade ranked 2nd highest in the country. Some have labeled Robinson as a “generational” type RB prospect.
Most who see this would assume Bijan is a steal at 16. However, there are other factors to explore before selecting Robinson in the first round.
The Value of Running Backs
The argument against drafting Bijan has nothing to do with Bijan himself. He has all of the tools you would want in a running back. The issue lies with the position he plays. The running back position has lost much of its value throughout the past two decades. The running game in general is not as important as it used to be.
The NFL is a passing league and that is not changing anytime soon. Due to this, teams are investing more in receivers and their offensive line as opposed to running backs. There is an outdated theory that you need to be able to run the ball to win in the postseason. However, the last four Super Bowl winners have all ranked 20th or worse in rush yards per game. Yes, you still need some remnants of a running game, but a team’s ability to pass the ball is far more crucial to its success.
When looking at strictly the running game, the offensive line is far more important to its success. Quarterbacks are becoming more involved in their team’s running game (Ravens, Eagles, Bears), which also hurts the value/importance of running backs.
History of 1st Round Running Backs
As talented as Bijan Robinson is, it doesn’t mean he is guaranteed to be a home run hit. The list of running backs selected in the first round has been underwhelming, to say the least. Here are the running backs drafted in the first round since 2010:
Jahvid Best
Ryan Mathews
C.J. Spiller
Mark Ingram
David Wilson
Doug Martin
Trent Richardson
Melvin Gordon
Todd Gurley
Ezekiel Elliott
Christian McCaffrey
Leonard Fournette
Sony Michel
Rashaad Penny
Saquon Barkley
Josh Jacobs
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
Travis Etienne
Najee Harris
There is an argument that McCaffrey is the only “hit” on this list. While others have had dominant seasons (Gurley, Elliot, Barkley, etc.), they have not had much success past their rookie contracts or have had injury issues early in their careers. Even McCaffrey has had major injury concerns, missing a combined 23 games in 2020 and 2021.
Of the top five rushing teams in 2022, not one had a running back who was drafted in the first round.
Shelf Life of Running Backs
Speaking of injuries, this is an obvious issue with running backs. With how physical the position is, most endure numerous injuries throughout their careers. Go back and look at the list of 1st round running backs and think about how many struggled with injuries.
Bijan Robinson is not exempt from this. He has sustained neck, back, elbow, and shoulder injuries in just three seasons at Texas. The team who drafts Bijan will likely utilize him as a workhorse back, receiving 25+ touches a game. The odds of him being able to stay healthy under that workload are highly unlikely.
The Need for Other Positions
Selecting Bijan Robinson at 16 would mean passing up the option to fill other positions. Tackle and Corner seem to be the likely areas Washington could target in the first. Both positions are vastly more valuable than running back.
Charles Leno will be 32 years old during the 2023 season. It would be wise to draft his replacement sooner rather than later. Peter Skoronski (if available) would be an option at 16. Some believe he can be versatile and play multiple positions. It’s possible he can fill in at guard during his rookie season and switch to LT once Leno is gone. Of course, he is not the only 1st round tackle prospect with the potential to play more than one position.
There are several corners that Washington could take in the first as well. Fuller has been reliable for Washinton the past few seasons. However, he will be a free agent after this year. St. Juste has flashed but has been too inconsistent and struggled to stay healthy. Securing a potential true #1 corner for 4-5 years would be huge.
Running Backs in Later Rounds
The reason we are seeing fewer running backs drafted early is due to how many quality starters are found in later rounds. Very few teams rely upon a running back that was selected in the first round.
This chart created by Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) shows translatable stats of 2023 running back prospects.
While Robinson checks all of those boxes, some backs are fairly close to him. Dewayne McBride, Tyjae Spears, Zach Evans, and Roschon Johnson are all projected to be drafted in the 3rd-4th round.
Conclusion
With Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson already on the roster, I think adding a running back in the middle rounds would be a better option than taking Bijan in the first. Between their declining value, the low hit rate of first-round backs, their shelf life in the NFL, and the success of backs selected in later rounds, drafting a running back in the first simply isn’t wise.
