NFL
By: Randall Slifer
Buffalo lost their first game of the year last week to the New England Patriots. Buffalo shot themselves in the foot numerous times when it comes to turnovers and penalties. The Atlanta Falcons had a similar game of shooting themselves in the foot, losing to the Panthers 30-0.
Atlanta’s offense has some star power on its roster, and the Buffalo defense has not been the best this year. Let’s take a look at how Buffalo can beat Atlanta at their turf using some numbers:
Limiting Bijan Robinson under 125 all-purpose yards
Bijan Robinson is going to get a heavy load of touches against Buffalo. Buffalo is allowing 145 rushing yards a game with 5.6 yards per carry. Bijan is a top rushing and pass-catching back, and Atlanta has probably been dialing up how much they can actually use him in one game.
The expectation should not be how to stone Bijan, but how much Buffalo can limit Bijan. Bijan is 15th in rushing yards and 1st in receiving yards among running backs. Dorian Williams is unlikely to play on Sunday, so Buffalo will need to figure out how it will attack Bijan.
They can play a base 4-3 with Bernard, Andreesson, and Thompson, but they could open up the intermediate passing. Taron Johnson has had a slow start to the year, and this week would be a good time to shine and get back into his true self. Bobby Babich will need to use everyone, including cornerbacks, at the line of scrimmage to prepare for the run, and be ready to drop back on play action.
Keon Coleman over 70 yards
Keon Coleman has had a good year, with 21 catches, 226 yards, and two touchdowns. He has not broken 50 yards since week 1, and Monday should be the day to use him as a focal point in the offense. Joe Brady should dial up mismatches in the slot or out wide for Keon.
For Atlanta, Mike Hughes plays outside corner, and Billy Bowman Jr has been playing the nickel position. Both defenders are 5’10 and Mike Hughes is 190 pounds. If Josh Allen sees one-on-one with Keon and Mike Hughes, he should pull the trigger every time and throw it a little bit higher and with a little more loft.
Last week against the Patriots, Keon Coleman lined up as the running back and motioned to the slot to create a mismatch in the middle. Keon was thrown a fade on the mismatch between him and Jones. This ended up being an incomplete pass, but there was obvious pass interference that went uncalled.
Joe Brady should salivate at the prospect of creating the mismatch and attempt it a couple of times in this game. When you set it up for the 3rd time, safeties will move over, and that’s where Josh Allen can hit an explosive play elsewhere. The mismatched chess piece that Joe Brady possesses in this game with Keon could be lethal and a key to victory.
Josh Allen has zero sacks.
Josh Allen has been sacked eight times this year and is on pace to have the highest sacks since 2022. He has been sacked in every game this year, whereas last year, there were seven games without a sack.
The interior of the offensive line has been the weaker part, but it is still a top-three unit in the league. Connor McGovern may not be 100% with his hand injury, and the guards have let pressure through the middle, leaving Josh Allen stuck.
The Falcons play more zone than man, and they will put a spy on Allen for the game. If Buffalo is not creating separation, and Josh will need to extend the play, Shakir and Kincaid will be crucial in bailing out the offense when Josh is scrambling for his life. In the playing zone, holes and gaps will open during a scramble drill, and the veterans will need to take command and get open for Allen.
Buffalo defense gets two turnovers.
Last week was the first of 25 games in which Buffalo lost the turnover margin. As expected, it came with a loss. Buffalo relies on turnovers throughout the season because Buffalo’s offense is so efficient that it can flip the script easily.
Buffalo has accounted for nine turnovers this year, not even close to last year’s pace of 35 turnovers. Buffalo’s defensive backs have not been the highlight of the year, but they are talented enough to get the turnovers back.
Michael Penix has thrown three touchdowns and three interceptions, including a pick-six this year. His adjusted completion percentage for the year is 70%, and he has thrown three turnover-worthy plays this year. While Buffalo plays zone, Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson can bait Penix into cover two throws over the second level with his inaccurate passing. The Commanders baited him into one of those throws that came underthrown, resulting in an interception in their own territory.
Ed Oliver will be back on the defensive line, and this unit can create a fumble at the line of scrimmage with their length and power. The potential line of Bosa, Oliver, Walker, and Rousseau can bring size and length to punch out a ball on the outside for the defense to take. They need to keep their gap integrity and let the fumble come to them.
Buffalo plays Atlanta at the Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Monday Night at 7:15 EST/6:15 CST. Right now, Vegas favors the Buffalo Bills by 4.5 points, with a total of 50 points. I do believe the over will hit on the total points, as both offenses will be buzzing, and Josh Allen is statistically great playing in a dome. Buffalo does not often lose two games in a row, but it’s not unheard of, as they did last year in back-to-back games versus the Ravens and Texans. I personally do not think they will do it again, come Monday Night. As always, Go Bills.
