NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills face a familiar foe this Sunday afternoon. This is Josh Allen’s 7th matchup against the Baltimore Ravens. It is his 2nd most frequent non-divisional opponent (behind the Kansas City Chiefs). Football fans should be grateful that Josh Allen vs. Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen vs. Patrick Mahomes has happened 18 times in 9.5 years.
Compared to previous years, this matchup feels a little bit different. Each team has lost its long-term head coach: Buffalo lost Sean McDermott, and Baltimore lost John Harbaugh. This is the latest regular-season matchup since 2019 (12/08). The AFC North is the most balanced it’s been in more than a decade, and Baltimore needs a win. The Buffalo Bills need to prove they are making the right moves for the future, and the proof lies in beating the top AFC teams. Let’s dive into this matchup and how it could unfold on Sunday:
How will injuries affect this matchup?
The Buffalo Bills, coming off a bye week, have had 2 weeks to get healthy. Spencer Brown was the only player not to practice yesterday, and he said he will be good to go on Sunday. DJ Moore and Ed Oliver were limited in practice and haven’t played in the past 2 games. These two players can swing Buffalo’s success on either side of the ball.
The offense looks far different without DJ Moore, and Buffalo cannot afford any more missed time from DJ Moore. Buffalo sent a 2nd-round pick for DJ Moore, and star players getting hurt is common. Last week, the Ravens’ defensive backs struggled against the Bengals’ offense. They faced Jamarr Chase and Tee Higgins, but that’s part of the philosophy. The Ravens double-teamed Jamarr Chase, which left Tee Higgins open for intermediate and deep 1-on-1 matchups. If DJ Moore is fully healthy, the Ravens will need to decide how to cover the Moore-Kincaid combination.
Ed Oliver is back at practice after a knee injury and could be very impactful in this matchup. Derrick Henry averages over 100 rushing yards per game and has scored 11 total touchdowns over 7 games. One of Baltimore’s best interior offensive linemen, Vega Ioane, will miss the upcoming game. If Buffalo’s interior defensive line can overpower the offensive line, the linebackers can clean up the run game and limit Derrick Henry. Dorian Williams has received a lot of criticism for his play through the first 6 games, but this is the kind of matchup he thrives in. He is at his best stopping the run, and that may be 95% of his job this Sunday. I expect him to do it well.
The biggest question mark lies with Lamar Jackson. Lamar Jackson suffered a high ankle sprain, which has kept him out of the last three games. High ankle sprains are hard to diagnose in terms of recovery time, but Lamar’s recovery has been slow. Lamar Jackson’s return to the field on Wednesday didn’t look fantastic. He seemed to favor one ankle, and he may be running at 75-80% on Sunday. Lamar Jackson at 80% isn’t his usual self.
The Buffalo Bills defensive line will need to compress the pocket and not leave an outside lane to move the pocket or take off running. The high ankle sprain will limit his mobility, and his first step going vertical will be slower than usual. The combination of Deone Walker and Ed Oliver/TJ Sanders can compress the pocket into Lamar while having Greg Rousseau and Bradley Chubb contain the outside. Lamar Jackson’s kryptonite is being pressured when rushing against only four defenders. Jim Leonhard has two weeks to prepare for Lamar Jackson, and I expect him to get creative with his simulated pressures. If Lamar Jackson doesn’t identify the right 4 rushes pre-snap, his mobility won’t let him extend the play, forcing the Ravens to punt more than expected.
Will the bye week help the defensive backs?
The Buffalo Bills defensive backs are improving as the season continues. It has not been a huge jump week over week, but the signs are there. Chris Gardner-Johnson is out this Sunday due to his suspension, and the defensive backs looked much more organized with Damar Hamlin and Jalon Kilgore splitting those reps. The defense doesn’t need much to reach the middle of the pack. It comes down to cleaning up 4-5 plays and stopping one more scoring drive. Let’s take a look at how simple the numbers are to get to 15th in passing defense stats:
Points per game: 28.5 (30th) –> 7 points –> 21.5 (15th)
Passing yards per game: 285.5 (31st) –> 70 yards –> 215.5 (12th)
The rushing defense is already ranked 15th, proving it doesn’t need a major overhaul to help the offense reach the Super Bowl. Ravens offensive coordinator, Declan Doyle, has been one of the best assistant coaches in 2026. His creativity is impressive, and he adjusts his offense game by game. Zay Flowers will get his yards, but the goal is to keep him under 100 yards. Past that, the pass-catchers have been rough, to say the least.
Davison Igbinosun is playing great man coverage, and Christian Benford is back to himself after a rough start. Cole Bishop has been having issues, but rumors and signs suggest Chris Gardner-Johnson may have been one of them. If a more organized defensive backfield is a quick switch of the safety next to Cole Bishop, it could be simple enough to get the defense to 15th. Do they still need to make a trade at the deadline? Yes, but that would move that defense from 15th to 10th-12th.
The Buffalo Bills take on the Baltimore Ravens in Orchard Park, NY, this Sunday at 1:00 EST/12:00 CST. Vegas has Buffalo favored by 3 points, with an over/under of 54.5. The 3 points is a slight nod to Buffalo (instead of -2.5), but they still see this as a close game. The over/under is high at 54.5, but they have a good chance of exceeding it. Buffalo gives up 28 PPG and scores over 30 PPG. The math is simple, similar to the formula to beat the Baltimore Ravens. Limit Derrick Henry to under 100 yards (no more than 1 TD), and don’t let Lamar Jackson get first downs on the run. As always, Go Bills.
