NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
There are three QBs in this year’s draft that I consider boom or bust prospects. A boom or bust prospect is one with the potential to be successful at the next level, but may not be ready just yet. Most of the time, in these cases, the QB has excellent physical tools such as elite arm strength or athleticism and not so much of the mental aspect of playing QB.
The dilemma with players like these is where they should be drafted. Some of their potential can land them as a top 10 pick, while some don’t even get their name called on the first night.
I will breakdown the three boom or bust QBs in this year’s draft, say if they are worthy of a first-round pick, and their potential landing spots.
Justin Herbert
Herbert is a rare QB that stayed at school despite being a first-round prospect. He is the most physically gifted QB in this draft and has the best arm talent among all of the prospects. He throws well under pressure and is effective as a runner that will transition to the next level. Herbert also has a good pocket presence and knows to bail when the pocket collapses.
Even though he has arm talent, the mental aspect of playing QB is his biggest problem. It takes him too long to go through his progressions. When his first read wasn’t open, he took off and ran too often. At times he struggles to read defenses and would not see a linebacker or safety that resulted in an interception. Many have also brought up his lackluster play in big games.
Conclusion: Herbert is definitely worthy of a first-round selection. I would be surprised if he weren’t taken in the top 10. He has a much higher floor than the other two QBs on this list.
Potential Landing Spots: Chargers, Colts, Raiders
Jordan Love
Jordan Love has quickly risen up draft boards. In his sophomore year at Utah State, he put up 32 TDs to only 6 INTs. However, his Junior campaign was extremely underwhelming. He only managed 20 TDs to 17 INTs. Many blame his drop off on the program getting completely turned upside down between those years. A new coaching staff and new players are not easy to overcome, but a lot of the negative on tape was simply on Love.
I have seen a lot of comparisons of Love to Patrick Mahomes. While yes, Love has some similar traits to Mahomes, I think it is crazy to compare the two. Even as prospects coming out of college, they are not close. In his last year at Texas Tech, Mahomes threw 41 TDs to only 10 INTs, and Pro Football Focus gave him an 88-grade. Jordan Love only managed a 75-grade last year. Even in his “great” Sophmore year, Love only had an 82-grade.
Conclusion: Jordan Love is not worthy of a first-round pick. I believe he will get his name called on the first night, but I think that is going to be a mistake by the team who takes that chance. Love has a lot of the physical tools that you see in the NFL today. Big arm, mobility, and he can make some throws into tight windows. However, he needs a lot of work on his consistency and decision making before he is an NFL ready QB.
Potential Landing Spots: Colts, Packers, Patriots, Saints
Jalen Hurts
Jalen Hurts was the runner up for the Heisman Trophy this past season. His stat sheet was extremely impressive. He completed nearly 70% of his passes, had 52 total TDs while only turning the ball over 14 times. The bad thing for Hurts is that stat sheets do not tell the whole story.
Hurts is a dual-threat QB, but struggles as a passer. He panics when under pressure, he is not accurate on timing routes and struggles mightily on reading defenses and going through his progressions.
As of now, Hurts would most likely be used as a weapon and not so much a QB. I imagine offenses would use him like the Saints use Taysom Hill.
Conclusion: Hurts is absolutely not worthy of a first-round pick. Yes, he has potential. However, he needs a lot of work before he can even be considered to be a starter in the NFL. Hurts works extremely hard, and that is one reason why I consider him a boom or bust prospect. If he finds himself in the right situation, and able to sit for 2-3 years and learn, he may end up being a good QB.
Potential Landing Spots: Steelers, Saints, Ravens
