NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
*All stats/grades are via PFF
The 2023 NFL season is around the corner with just one month until some teams report for training camp. Many people have varying predictions on how Washington’s season will go. Some believe they can win a playoff game, while others think they will end up drafting in the top 5. So, I figured I would participate and give my bold predictions for Washington’s upcoming season.
Here are three positive and three not-so-positive bold predictions for the Commanders 2023 season.
Sam Howell Proves to Be More Than a “Capable Starting QB”
Howell is Washington’s biggest mystery in 2023. Some believe he can turn into a top-10 quarterback, while others think he’ll be benched by week 4. I had Sam Howell ranked as the #1 quarterback in the 2021 draft. I also felt Howell should have been starting before he got his chance in week 18.
I understand the skepticism of starting a 2nd-year 5th-round quarterback who has only played in one NFL game. The odds are stacked heavily against Howell. However, he showed significant growth throughout the season at practices according to ESPN’s John Keim: “The steady improvement in practices, specifically with his footwork, and then what they saw in the Dallas game, that made them feel comfortable going forward.”
He has more than enough arm talent and we saw what he could do as a runner in his last year at UNC. With Bieniemy running the offense and the number of weapons at his disposal, I think Howell will turn a lot of heads this season.
Chase Young Is Washington’s Best Defender
Washington did not pick up Young’s fifth-year option. While many fans have voiced their frustration with the former defensive rookie of the year, I still believe he can be a dominant player. In 2020, he made a number of game-changing plays, and his 87.1 overall grade ranked 5th highest among all edge rushers.
Young only managed two sacks through 8 ½ games before tearing his ACL in his 2nd season. We will finally get to see him 100% healthy for the first time since week 10 of 2021. Despite the injury and underwhelming play, Young can still become a great player for this defense.
Cole Turner Takes Over as TE1
Ever since Logan Thomas’ 2020 season, Washington has struggled to get consistent production from its tight ends. Thomas will be 32 this season and has missed time due to injuries each of the past two years. In 2022, he only managed 39 receptions for 323 yards through 14 games.
Cole Turner was drafted in the 5th round of the 2021 draft. In his last two seasons at Nevada, he hauled in 111 receptions for 1,282 yards and 19 TDs. Unfortunately, injuries severely limited his ability to play in his rookie year. During OTAs, Zach Selby reported that Turner continuously turned heads. Due to Thomas’ age and injuries over the past two seasons, I believe we could see Turner take over the starting role at tight end.
Daron Payne Underwhelms After Signing Huge Contract
Payne earned himself a 4-year $90 million extension after racking up 11.5 sacks last season. Washington won’t have to worry about the interior defensive line for a while now. Even with how dominant Payne was in 2022, there is a chance he won’t replicate that in 2023. In February, I wrote about why Washington should be cautious when it came to signing Payne to a long-term deal HERE. In sum, there were three main reasons for this.
One reason is that his pass rush win rate and pass rush grade were somewhat low compared to other linemen with his number of sacks and pressures. This could be an indicator that he might not reach double-digit sacks in 2023. Second was his struggles in the run game. His run defense grade in 2021 was 53.8 and 49.5 in 2022. For $22.5 million per year, I believe he needs to significantly improve in run defense.
Finally, I would have liked to see Payne play close to the level he did for consecutive seasons. Before 2022, for four seasons, he was just a decent DT. This is why I preferred they tag him instead of committing long-term for just one season with a high level of play.
The Offensive Line Struggles Again
The offensive line was a disaster in 2022, specifically the interior O-line. Out of Andrew Norwell, Trai Turner, Tyler Larsen, Nick Martin, and Wes Schweitzer, not one had a pass-blocking grade of 60 or higher. They signed Nick Gates and Andrew Wylie in free agency to start at center and right tackle. The Wylie signing means Cosmi will be playing right guard in 2023.
While I like the moves they have made, there is still a chance this unit struggles again. Gates’ 60 overall blocking grade and Wylie’s 61.6 in 2022 aren’t anything to be overly optimistic about. Cosmi has only played 65 career snaps at guard. This includes college where he exclusively played tackle. The left guard position is either going to be Charles or Paul (or a rookie who impresses at camp). Charles Leno is the only lineman I am fully confident in going into the 2023 season. His pass-blocking grade ranked 2nd highest in 2021 (87.3) and 12th in 2022 (80.9).
Emmanuel Forbes Has a Rough Rookie Season
Many didn’t see the Forbes selection coming with Christian Gonzalez and Deonte Banks still on the board. He was a ballhawk at Mississippi State grabbing 14 interceptions in his three years. He also earned an 89.3 coverage grade in 2022. Reports say he has been everything Washington had hoped for during minicamp and OTAs.
I believe Forbes can be a great player, but I also think there is a chance he struggles in his first season. It can be difficult for corners to play well in their rookie year. AJ Terrel only managed a 57 coverage grade in his rookie season before it skyrocketed to 85.6 in his 2nd year. Between his ballhawk style of play and thin frame, he could have a few more downs than ups in 2023.
