NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Arkansas Razorbacks had their bye week last week and resume conference play on Halloween. They’ll take on another top-25 team, Missouri. Missouri is a great team, but it’s had its ups and downs this season. They’ve beaten teams like Texas A&M and Florida, but have lost to Ole Miss and Mississippi State.
Can the Arkansas Razorbacks take advantage of their bye week and put together a good game for Arkansans? The team looks far better now than at the beginning of the season, but some deficiencies will never go away. Let’s take a look at this Halloween preview of the Arkansas Razorbacks vs. the Missouri Tigers:
Should Arkansas pressure Missouri early?
Ryan Silverfield is a risk-averse style coach who looks to keep it close till the 4th quarter. This is a fine strategy, until it comes down to one decision and you have to make the stressful choice (ahem: Tennessee). The Vanderbilt game had notes of that style, but Vanderbilt was equally talented, so that Silverfield could rely on some safe decisions.
The Arkansas Razorbacks have led for 28 minutes and 32 seconds total against Power 4 schools. If you remove the sole win against Vanderbilt, they have held a lead for only 8 minutes across 4 games. If the Arkansas Razorbacks want to win another game, Ryan Silverfield and Tim Cramsey need better formulas to get points on the board early.
The scripted plays at the beginning of the game make the passing attack look promising. Tim Cramsey sets up KJ Jackson with solid intermediate throws, then avoids risky throws for the rest of the season. Sure, KJ Jackson has 3 of 4 interceptions on 10+ air yards, but Missouri’s weak spots are in coverage.
The Missouri Tigers give up 246 passing yards per game, ranking 103rd in the country. Their two starting cornerbacks, Chris Graves Jr. and Sione Laulea, each allow 15 yards per reception. The other defensive backs are not far behind. Antonio Jordan had his coming-out party against Vanderbilt, posting 5 catches for 74 yards after Chris Marshall left the game with an injury. Sione Laulea is a 6’4 corner, so he will line up against Chris Marshall and Antonio Jordan to compete with their size. Will Arkansas line up Antonio Jordan and Chris Marshall opposite each other to take advantage of these corners?
If Tim Cramsey wants to show he is worthy of the offensive coordinator job, he needs to take calculated risks and prioritize early scoring. If the Arkansas Razorbacks can take a lead and hold it for most of the first half, it could open lanes for continued passing-game success. Missouri will need to bite down on the run game. This could be a situation where Arkansas’ wide receivers win 1-on-1.
Can the weather help Arkansas?
Arkansas needs a little luck to beat Missouri. Fortunately, Fayetteville will get a rainy game. Rain is expected to start shortly before game time, and turnovers could add up.
Missouri does a great job avoiding turnovers. Missouri ranks top 10 in turnover margin at +1 and gives up only one turnover every two games (.5 giveaways per game). Austin Simmons has thrown only two interceptions this year, and the team has 5 fumbles total. Still, Austin Simmons has a 3.5% turnover-worthy throws rate versus only 3.7% big-time throws. Can the Arkansas defense turn some of those throws into picks? Can the weather force a couple of fumbles?
If the Arkansas Razorbacks win the turnover margin in Fayetteville, Missouri could find itself with its back against the wall. Ryan Silverfield has had two weeks to prepare, and several factors favor Arkansas. Not to mention, they play on Halloween? The Arkansas Razorbacks need to put up a fight early and see how this team plays with a lead, instead of constantly playing from behind.
The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Missouri Tigers this Halloween Saturday at 7:45 EST/6:45 CST. Vegas has Missouri favored by 9.5 points, which is promising for Arkansas football. The over/under is 48.5 (as of 10/28), and it may be lower due to the weather. Now is the time to get into the mix of a college season where anything is possible. Ryan Silverfield could earn back the fans’ good graces if he can pull out this win. As always, go Razorbacks.
