NFL
By: Randall Slifer
The Buffalo Bills head to Foxborough to take on the New England Patriots in a pivotal match that will provide a clearer picture of the AFC. If the Patriots win, the AFC East is basically locked up, and you are staring at the Broncos and the Patriots as the top two dogs in the AFC.
If the Buffalo Bills pull out a victory, then everything can be on the table. The AFC East could be open, which could send New England into the wild-card. Past the Broncos and the Patriots at 11-2, the best record is 9-4, held by three teams. The Broncos have a gauntlet of games facing the Packers, Chiefs, and two teams fighting for top AFC spots (Jaguars and Chargers) in their last four games.
The New England Patriots surprised a lot of folks by beating the Buffalo Bills in Buffalo in their first matchup. The Buffalo Bills had their classic “quicksand” game, creating three turnovers but unable to recover from the disaster of the first half. Let’s take a look at how Buffalo can take this crucial matchup and send the AFC into a Hunger Games for the last month of the season:
McDermott needs to call a complete game.
Sean McDermott has called very good games in the last two weeks versus the Bengals and the Steelers. The Steelers’ games in the previous four weeks have scored 34, 38, 22, and only 7 points against Buffalo. McDermott understood the game plan against the Bengals, knowing Buffalo had to outscore Cincinnati and how prolific their offense has been this season.
Sean McDermott has had issues on defense in the first half, but does a really good job adjusting in the second half. There is no issue with showing a defense in the first to bait the team in the second half into turnovers or punts (i.e., the Benford pick-six). The problem is how many points are being scored in the first half. Let’s take a look at some first-half points scored against Buffalo:
Away Losses: Houston (20), Miami (16), Atlanta (21)
Home wins: Bengals (21), TB (20), Ravens (20)
As you can see, 46% of Buffalo games have allowed 15 or more points in the first half, and 38% have scored 20 or more points. Those away losses are glaring in this situation as Buffalo is heading to Foxborough. McDermott needs to have the defense ready to start this game, as Drake Maye is on a heater in his second year in the NFL.
Limit Drake Maye’s production.
Drake Maye is 2nd in MVP odds heading into week 15 of the season. He has thrown only six interceptions, with an adjusted completion percentage of 80%. There are ways to get to Drake Maye, and it’s something that McDermott will need to plan for, because some of his strengths are Buffalo’s weaknesses.
Drake Maye may be throwing the best deep ball in the 2025 season. Passes that go 20 or more air yards, Drake Maye is completing 55% of his passes with 7 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Drake Maye can be baited into throws, and McDermott can do that with the right play calling.
Drake Maye has thrown 5 out of his 6 interceptions when not blitzed and 4 out of the 6 interceptions when kept clean and not under pressure. He has thrown 5 of those interceptions on passes of 10-19 air yards, and that can be something McDermott and the defense can take advantage of this Sunday.
McDermott does a great job of chipping receivers to disrupt the offense’s timing and of disguising blitzes at the line of scrimmage. McDermott needs to confuse Maye into showing pressure and closing up the lanes intended for Maye’s passing. When Maye was not blitzed, he had thrown 11 out of his 12 turnover-worthy plays, and Buffalo needs to take advantage of that. Drake Maye is still young in the league, and the veteran presence of Buffalo’s defense needs to show up and put Maye in a blender.
Continue the offense of the past 3 weeks.
Joe Brady has turned a corner lately and has become less predictable than he was in the middle of the season. The offense is starting to use more play-action passing and more passing on 1st down, after a lot of vanilla play-calling.
New England’s defense has some schemes and deficiencies that Buffalo can take advantage of this Sunday. New England plays a mix of Cover 3 and Cover 1 defense. Dalton Kincaid looks to be as close to 100% as he can get, and he can abuse Cover 3 in the intermediate with Josh Allen.
Dalton Kincaid is one of the few pass catchers who can run option routes, and when three defenders are playing deep levels, he can break off his route and be open for big gains. I expect Dalton Kincaid to go over 100 yards this game and be the reliable target for Josh Allen.
A close second in defensive coverage is Cover 1, which they primarily play in man coverage. Joe Brady has opened the playbook for Josh Allen and has utilized his legs more in the running game. Josh Allen can identify man coverage and attack it three ways:
First, running backs in the backfield become mismatches for linebackers through sneak, flat, and wheel routes for big yards after the catch.
Second, Josh Allen will need to test the safeties to open up the short and intermediate. If rookie Craig Woodson is the single high safety in the backfield, Josh Allen needs to test the deep ball against the Patriots’ secondary to show that everything is on the table.
Third, Josh Allen rushing the ball. Josh Allen does his best at identifying man coverage and taking off for big gains. The only issue is the Patriots did show lanes the first week and were able to close them up when he tucked the ball and ran. I expect Josh Allen to watch enough tape of the first game to understand where to run and when to run. The Patriots have not dealt with a major rushing quarterback since their last appearance. The only opponents have been Jaxson Dart (going through a concussion and facing pushback on his rushing) and Justin Fields (cannot throw the ball). Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense can confuse the defense in the first half, allowing them to dominate the whole game.
The Buffalo Bills head to Foxborough to play the New England Patriots this Sunday at 1:00 EST/ 12:00 CST. The weather will be cold, but with minimal wind and snow in the forecast. The Buffalo Bills are favored by 1 point as the away team, which is a tad shocking. Buffalo is playing their best football right now, and Vegas believes that it can keep that going. The injury report for Buffalo is small, so all hands are on deck for the Patriots. As always, Go Bills.
