NFL
By: Jeffrey Newholm
The first round matchup between the Warriors and Rockets wasn’t figured to be too tight of a series. The Dubs won a record 73 games, and 2016 was a big down year for Houston. But when Steph Curry injured his leg in game four, suddenly all bets were off. Houston had already won game three, and had a chance to even the series with game four tied at halftime. It seemed to be a good time for supposed superstar James Harden to show some leadership. The trade that sent him away from Oklahoma City, after all, was widely lambasted as “the worst trade of all time”. But sadly in basketball sometimes adding a big player is actually subtraction by addition. Often how well the parts fit together is more important than how flashy those parts are. In the fourth quarter, Harden could well have fulfilled a dream of success. Problem is it was an actual dream on the sidelines, not real success.
With those same 73 win Dubs adding Kevin Durant this off-season, many are rushing to laud the greatest team of all time with even more inspired prose. But there are enough cautionary tales to put a hold on celebratory parade maps until the team actually wins. A 2012 study titled, “Experience and Winning in the National Basketball Association”, presented at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, found a quantifiable relationship between the number of years teammates have played together and postseason success. I can think of two good examples of a team that tried to get better with player acquisitions, but actually became much worse. I will also give a recent example of a winning team with good chemistry. Finally, I’ll give my own perspective on what to make of the 2017 Warriors with their new “core four” of superstars.
The Lakers have fallen on such hard times lately that it’s become hard to recall them making the playoffs at all. But as recently as 2012 Los Angeles finished a healthy 16 games over .500 and won a playoff series. But evidently this wasn’t enough to satisfy some fans, so ownership added Steve Nash and Dwight Howard to build a stacked “dream team”. The results were catastrophic. The coach was scapegoated and fired after just five games, and the Lakers could only just barely eke out a playoff berth. The professionally-run Spurs easily swept the flashy Lakers. The team has since achieved such a level of disarray that the only recent excitement was a good final game by Kobe for a long-since eliminated team. The Lakers tried to throw up a lob with big name acquisitions, but ended up just throwing the ball out-of-bounds.
Another example a bit more off the beaten path, but still relevant to this discussion. is the current state of the WNBA’s Phoenix Mercury. Last year the Mercury were missing Diana Taurausi and Penny Taylor, who were both on a one-year hiatus. The team still managed to easily reach the semifinals and only lost due to a very questionable call. This year both Taurasi and Taylor returned, leading to expectations of top two seed and double-bye to the semifinals. And certainly it wasn’t reckless avarice by ownership to invite two star players back. But yet the team has struggled mightily this year, currently sitting in seventh at 13-17. The team is only one game ahead of the ninth spot, which doesn’t provide any postseason berth at all. From what I’ve seen the Mercury have had difficulty functioning as a team, to the point where Taurasi was suspended for an exorbitant number of technicals. Many maintain the team is capable of a Cinderella run, but with the team’s malaise continuing even after the Olympic break, I don’t find any reason to expect or count on such a thing happening.
While these and many other examples of bad chemistry continue to occur at every level of basketball, there are rare examples of successful teams with very good chemistry. I would argue that this year’s Cavilers were one such team. And I don’t say this because the team won, as someone has to win every year. It’s my observation of the team’s clinching conference championship game that gave me this impression. Game six in Toronto eventually turned into a blowout, with all the starters getting subbed out and both teams simply dribbling out the clock. The Cavs seemed to be very gracious winners, with Coach Lue warmly embracing the Raptors and the players presenting themselves stoically after the final horn. But once inside the locker room, the team’s demeanor changed. The club Lebron orchestrated to the dismay of fans everywhere (not just Miami) relished the moment with wild excitement and sprays of champagne. Even I’m on record criticizing Lebron’s seemingly egotistical micro-managing of his teams. But the Cavs, in that moment, seemed to be a team genuinely happily to have won, and to have done so together-as a team.
So I’ve presented some negative examples of acquisitions messing with a good team’s chemistry, and a counter-example of acquisitions making a losing team a genuine contender. But I think the question all fans want answered is: how will KD do with the Dubs? I think asking the Dubs to win 70 games again is unreasonable, given the difficulty of the feat and the league’s ability to make adjustments. But for two reasons I think the move will be beneficial overall. First, I think Durant’s style of play will work well for the Warriors. Durant looked extremely comfortable making threes in the Olympics, and didn’t showboat or make a big deal out of doing so. He doesn’t seem to have a superstar ego that would mess with Golden State’s team-first style. Second, Durant’s decision to head west was his and his alone. He wasn’t shipped out in some salary-dump move or nine player trade. He saw the joy with which the Dubs have played the last two years, and wished to be a part of it. Sadly, it seems the James Harden trade did more to hurt Houston in the grand scheme of things than the Thunder. But I think Durant’s signing was a true, beneficial addition for the Warriors. The Rockets. Lakers, and Mercury all flunked the chemistry test. But I expect the Dubs to pass it with flying colors.
You can follow me on Twitter @JeffreyNewholm and our blog @NutsAndBoltsSP.
