NFL
By: Jeffrey Newholm
Women’s basketball may be my specialty, but I’d still like to take a limited shot at men’s bracketology before we get too deep into conference play. Like my women’s bracketology, I’ll rank the top eight teams, but since teams are not allowed to host in the men’s tournament, I’ll take a stab at something more difficult and pick the last four at large teams, the teams that would be relegated to the first four if the tourney started today. Men’s basketball has proven to be extremely unpredictable this year, with only SMU (ineligible for the postseason) and South Carolina undefeated and no clear favorite. This means the tournament should be shock full of upsets as always and the difference between a one and a two will be both less and of lesser importance. The last four teams are very important, however, as there’s a big difference between being in the tournament proper, having to play a play-in game in Dayton, and not being in at all. But before I get started, there’s a very important statistic I want to introduce: RPI.RPI stands for Ratings Percentage Index, and it is used by every NCAA selection committee to supplant a team’s win-loss record. It combines winning percentage with opponent’s and opponent’s opponent’s winning percentages in a very complex way. Thankfully other people have done all that work for me and ranked all the D1 teams already, but I want to make sure the reader gets the basic idea of a RPI number when I use it. So with this out of the way, I’ll start with the #1 overall seed, which of course is not automatically Uconn because men’s basketball has lots of parity:
#1 Overall Seed: Michigan State
Just to show you how crazy this season is, I already had the top eight all done and then Kansas had to lose against West Virginia, so I had to redo the top three. It’s really close between the Spartans and Oklahoma but I went with the Spartans because, despite the worse loss, they have more quality wins on their resume. State has eight wins over RPI top 100 teams, including four in the top fifty, while the Sooners only have five against the top 100, including just two in the top 50. Oklahoma does have a higher RPI and SOS, so this one’s really splitting hairs.
#2 Seed: Oklahoma
Oklahoma has a RPI of four and its only loss was on the road to Kansas in an instant classic. This season being what it is, had a) the Sooners made one free throw at the end of regulation or b) the team not turned it over on the inbounds at the end of triple overtime, they could be unanimous #1. Thankfully there’s really not much of a difference between one, two, and three, but still it goes to show the microscopic difference between the top teams in the league this year.
#3 Seed: Kansas
Despite the loss to West Virginia the Jayhawks easily have done enough to be a #1 seed. They have five wins against RPI top 50 teams and their only other loss was to Michigan State. Entering Tuesday they had an RPI of three and SOS of five. Problem is the Big 12 is a minefield, ranked #1 in my ranking of all d1 conferences. Keeping their title streak alive will be a challenge and bracketolgists will have to be constantly reevaluating the Jayhawks after each inevitable loss.
#4 Seed: North Carolina
Joe Lunardi has Maryland as the final #1, but I think the Tarheels have a stronger case. They have the head-to-head win against the Terps, a higher RPI, four wins against RPI top teams wins vs. zero, and a much higher SOS. The only knock on them is they have a loss to Northern Iowa, but it was on the road, without Marcus Paige, and only by four. Honestly I think the Heel’s resume is quite a bit stronger than the Terp’s.
#5 Seed: Maryland
Maryland didn’t gain this spot as much as Kentucky, Villanova and Xavier lost it. All of those teams have some real ugly losses while the Terps have only an eight point loss to the Heels. To keep this spot in the long run, however, eventually Maryland has to pick up some quality wins, such as against Michigan State or Iowa.
#6 Seed: Villanova
The Wildcats beat Xavier by 31, an outcome too difficult for the Musketeers to overcome no matter how good their resume is. They have a RPI and SOS of one, so it may seem odd they’re all the way down at six. Problem is the ‘Cats got smoked by the Sooners by 23 and also lost by double figures to three loss Virginia. The Big East is talented enough that ‘Nova can easily bolster their credentials with great wins, but they can’t lose so spectacularly.
#7 Seed: Xavier
As previously mentioned, the Musketeer’s single loss was catastrophically bad. But their resume apart from that is pretty darn good, so they still have a #2 seed at this point. Xavier has an RPI of two, SOS of 11 and five wins against RPI top 50 teams. Unfortunately that 30 point loss just jumps off the page at me.
#8 Seed: Kentucky
This one came down to Kentucky and Providence. They both have some bad losses, but overall the Wildcat’s numbers are much stronger. Kentucky has a RPI of eight vs. 22 for Providence, a SOS of nine vs. 65, and four RPI top 50 wins vs. two. Sure, one could argue whether Kentucky’s losses to Ohio State and LSU are worse than the Friar’s loss to Marquette, but Kentucky’s overall numbers are so much better that it’s pointless.
Last four at large bids
Fourth to last at large: Oregon State
Lunardi has the Beavers in the first four out, but I think they match up very well with both Monmouth and Texas, who are both definitely in. They’re 10-3 with a a RPI of 28, and most importantly their only somewhat questionable loss is to Stanford (60 in RPI) while Monmouth and Texas have some real stinkers of losses. The other teams on the bubble don’t look nearly as good as these three, so I think Oregon State is in good shape right now.
Third to last at large: Texas
Texas and Monmouth have similar RPIs and the Longhorns actually have two more losses, but Texas’ SOS is three while the Hawks’ is 72. Yes the Hawks have some good wins, but playing in a mid-major conference works to your detriment.
Second to last at large: Monmouth
The potential Cinderella from the humble Metro Atlantic Conference has caught the nation by storm, both by their play on the court and their celebrations off it. The Hawks already upset UCLA, Notre Dame and Georgetown and have a RPI of 29. Unfortunately they also have awful losses to Canisus and Army. There is a decent chance of an at large bid, but my advice to the Hawks would be to win the conference tournament to not only officially punch their ticket but also avoid the first four (the Hawks would surely not be among the last four automatic qualifiers).
Last at large team: UCLA
The last three teams I considered were UCLA, Wake Forest and Notre Dame. These teams should thank their lucky stars for the first four because they wouldn’t be on the bubble without it. RPI and SOS is pretty close among these three teams but the Bruins have four wins against RPI top 50 teams while the other two only have one a piece. Being this far down on the bubble is not a very fun place to be, so I would advise these three teams to pick up some more quality wins and not leave things up to chance.
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