2023 NFL Draft- Crazy Takes

By: Greg Rector

The 2023 NFL draft is one month away. There’s a real disconnect happening between football fans and those who scout prospects and also partake in mock drafts. This isn’t about boasting it’s about the reality of the way NFL teams approach the entire process versus the wild wishes that are only going to get wilder as April 28th approaches. Over the last few years of doing this exercise annually, I have met so many fantastic people who cheer for every team in the league. I have learned so much from TeamNBSMedia cohorts William Carroll and Jeff Barnes hosts of our own NFL Draft Central on YouTube in terms of scouting.

Further, there are so many other excellent scouts from Emory Hunt Dane Brugler, and around the team, I focus on the most Bryan Broaddus for the Dallas Cowboys. The bottom line is developing a group of contacts and being wise enough to learn from those who are proven to be awfully good at what they do helps a lot when I create my mock draft articles. Certainly, I focus the most on the Cowboys but can ask about all 31 other teams through the network of people I have met. That means I gain insight from people who are local to every team. They understand their organizations better more often than not than folks who let’s say work out of Bristol, Connecticut. All of this amounts to being able to hazard fairly educated guesses regarding the 2023 NFL Draft. Thank you so much to all those who have viewed my previous mock drafts.

The Mock Draft

MOCK is an adjective defined as:

“Not authentic or real, but without the intention to deceive.” Notice the lack of deception? Mock drafts are an exercise they aren’t ever going to be totally accurate. Some responses are mind-boggling to mock drafts I have posted. My favorite lines are “Insert player name won’t be there at pick whatever” or “Insert player name isn’t worth a first round pick.” Response one is countered every single draft, good players fall down the draft board. The second response is harder for many to understand apparently. Here’s my answer. There are 31 first round picks and the consesus from all of the resources I use is that there between 16 and 19 players that have first round grades for the 2023 NFL Draft. So even at the high mark of 19 first round grades, simple math would tell you that if all 19 were taken in order, there’s 12 prospects who will get drafted in round one that do not have a first round grade.

The next factor is the one that none of us has control over. Come April 28th teams will move down or up and quite often during the first round. So once that happens kiss your draft board goodbye. This is why the exercise is done by us folks though. In the 2021 NFL draft it was pretty clear to most Dallas Cowboys fans that if the two highly touted corners were taken before the Cowboys pick that a move was very likely and indeed the Cowboys moved down in order to draft Micah Parsons. The next trade that night was far more surprising when the New York Jets who had already moved up to have the 2nd pick (Zach Wilson) did it a second tome to have the 14th pick and drafting Alijah Vera-Tucker. These moves are why as part of the mock drafts folks like me will indeed make trades up or down for teams.

Let’s go back to point one the simple fact there are not 31 first-round graded prospects. So just as in the fairly decent Kevin Costner football movie “Draft Day” teams will select prospects that might surprise and unfortunately in the social media sphere anger many people. Costner decided on two moves and two players who were productive over the consensus choice of a quarterback with all the “tools” in the world but he lacked a major factor “character.” Last year the Jaguars selected a player with all the “traits” in Travon Walker first overall and the Detroit Lions selected Aidan Hutchinson the player with more “production.” That’s the debate happening in every NFL war room these days. Finalizing their draft boards and also needing to be able to adjust based on what other teams do at the draft.

Names To Watch

I said earlier that almost everyone in the scouting and mock draft community has locked in a number of 1st round-graded prospects. For the 2023 NFL Draft, I have 16 prospects with a first-round grade. So based on my board there will be 15 prospects that will have their names announced by Commissioner Goodell who do not have a first-round grade. Let’s just say the draft board falls and the Pittsburgh Steelers with the 17th pick don’t have their number one guy available (long rumored to be corner Joey Porter Jr.) and instead draft OT Darnell Wright from Tennessee, I won’t be shocked one little bit. The same will apply to half the first round. It doesn’t mean the teams are “reaching” nor does it mean the prospect is going to be a surefire playing every Sunday prospect either. That’s just unrealistic tom foolery by fans out there.

Other names that will likely go in round one include Mazi Smith DT from Michigan and possibly as many as three tight ends (yes first round TEs have not been great as rookies we know) in Dalton Kincaid Utah Michael Meyer Notre Dame and even massive Darnell Washington from Georgia, all could get selected in round one. There’s still the chance that running backs Bijan Robinson Texas and Jahmyr Gibbs Alabama both hear their names on Friday night. Twitter will explode “YOU DON”T DRAFT A RUNNING BACK IN ROUND ONE” yes you do if that player is the BEST PLAYER AVAILABLE on a team’s draft board. : Live with it folks. You and I aren’t paid to make these calls. Many folks are locked into four quarterbacks getting drafted in round one, well better be prepared for a fifth quarterback in Hendon Hooker Tennessee whose name is getting some traction, particularly after the 21st pick.

That’s the true purpose of mock drafting folks. It’s a guess based upon several factors (scouting) and then knowing what teams like to do at the draft, the possible deals, and so on. So, please realize that even Mel and I are only making a guess as to what will happen. It’s why I post “predictive” mock drafts versus “What I Would Do” mocks.

Last year I participated in a fun exercise hosted by TeamNBSMedia’s own Bill Carroll that’s known as Draftapalooza. I played GM for both the Dallas Cowboys. The funny thing was I missed Tyler Smith for Dallas in round one but hit on many other picks for the Cowboys. Sam Williams Jalen Tolbert Daron Bland and Matt Waletzko, and I also played Brett Veach/Andy Reid for the Kansas City Chiefs Now I’m no Chiefs expert but I hit 8 of their 10 picks. That was extremely lucky.

I will never say I am locked in on picks or that I am better at this than anyone else. I will say I do my homework and give my best guess just as the rest of the “experts” do. It’s FUN to build the rosters for every NFL team. Like everyone else not named Kiper, McShay, or Jeremiah, I am not paid for this. I love the game of football, I do this as a way to have a constructive debate and as a way to learn as much as possible about this whole process. Speaking of which next week I will do my final full 7-round mock draft for the 2023 NFL Draft. To those who remain constructive in the replies, thank you. As for the critics, if you again are at least realistic I have no problem with differing views. When you throw those two earlier lines at me though, you’ve already lost.

As always find me on Twitter @GregsCowboys

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