NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
*All stats/grades are via PFF
The Washington Commanders currently sit at last place in the NFC East. Expectations were high heading into the season as this was year three of Rivera’s rebuild. Many believed the Commanders would compete for the division title due to the upgrade at quarterback.
After failing to trade for Russell Wilson, the Commanders quickly shifted their efforts to a new quarterback. On March 9th, the Colts traded Carson Wentz to Washington for a 2022 and 2023 3rd-rounder. The 2023 3rd-rounder could turn into a 2nd-rounder if Wentz plays 70% of snaps this season. They also swapped 2nd round picks in 2022.
Through six games, Wentz has struggled. His 61.3 passing grade ranks 27th out of 35 quarterbacks. The offensive line’s struggles have not helped matters for Carson either. His 45.4 passing grade when under pressure ranks 24th out of 35.
The fan base is split on who should start at quarterback. Some have not given up on Wentz and believe he deserves more time. Others are ready for a change and want to see Heinicke or Howell under center.
While Heinicke is the backup, there is much more reason for Rivera to turn to Howell.
Physical Traits
One reason Rivera chose Wentz was his physical abilities. Heinicke’s lack of arm strength severely limited Scott Turner’s playbook in 2021. They needed a quarterback who could make any throw and that is precisely what Wentz can do. However, he routinely misses the easy throws starting quarterbacks should be able to make with their eyes closed.
Sam Howell had arguably the best arm talent in the entire 2022 draft. There would be little if any dropoff in terms of arm talent from Wentz to Howell.
The coaching staff also made multiple comments about having a mobile quarterback. Wentz has struggled mightily to escape pressure and make plays with his feet. We saw how much Turner’s offense can benefit from a mobile quarterback last year with Heinicke.
Sam Howell managed to force the second-most missed tackles among quarterbacks in 2021 at 65, with only Malik Willis having more. In the preseason, Howell had the highest rushing grade (85.9) of all rookie quarterbacks by a wide margin. While Wentz limits the offense with a lack of mobility and Heinicke limits it with a lack of arm strength, this isn’t the case with Howell.
The Season is Over
Through six games, it is clear Washington will not be competing for a spot in the postseason. They have won two games but both could have easily been lost if not for some luck. Looking ahead, there are only a few games Washington has a real shot of winning (Colts, Falcons, and Texans).
Rivera should take this opportunity to play some younger players who would otherwise not get much time on the field. One of which being Sam Howell. Nothing is more valuable to a young quarterback than experience. Howell getting the chance to start for over half a season could put his development ahead of schedule.
Save a High 2nd-Round Pick
Continuing to start Wentz in a lost season and handing the Colts a 2nd round pick would be ill-advised. A quarterback who starts for a full season will play around 1,000-1,100 snaps. Through 6 weeks, Wentz currently sits at 422 snaps. I believe allowing Wentz to play over 750 snaps will lead to him hitting the 70% point. This means Wentz can probably only play around 3-4 more games. Going over that will likely lead to the 3rd rounder turning into a 2nd rounder.
See What You Have in Howell
Addressing the quarterback position in the offseason will be the biggest storyline. There is a chance Washington will be in a position to take a top quarterback in the draft. If Howell plays and flashes potential, they can shift their focus to other positions to help support him in 2023. If Howell struggles, then the front office will know they should pursue a quarterback in the draft.
While the supporting cast isn’t perfect for Howell, it isn’t awful either. He has weapons with McLaurin, Dotson, and Samuel. The offensive line has played better in the past two games as well. Wentz was pressured 19 times in week four, 12 times in week five, and only 5 times against Chicago.
If Howell is a future franchise quarterback, he has to be able to overcome some adversity.
Gives Fans a Reason to Watch
Morale has hit an all-time low in the Ron Rivera era. The fan base does not have much to look forward to with this team in 2022. Playing Howell will give the fans something to cheer for and a reason to watch every Sunday. If Howell can play well, it will spark excitement in the fan base and allow them to be enthusiastic about the 2023 season.
I do not expect Rivera to make a change this week or even next. However, willingly giving up a high 2nd-round pick in a lost season would be disastrous. There is little reason to keep Wentz as the starter. Seeing what Howel can bring to the table would benefit this team long-term. I hope Rivera comes to this realization and makes the necessary change.
