NFL
By: Greg Rector
Dallas Cowboys (3-1) at Los Angeles Rams (2-2) Sunday 4:25 PM Eastern TV Fox
The Cowboys travel to California in week five to face the defending Super Bowl champions. This shapes up as more of a battle than many thought it would be when they saw the schedule released for this season. Let’s break this game down.
Dallas Defense vs Rams Offense
This is a far cry from the Rams’ dangerous offense in 2021. Only once in 4 games have they scored over 20 points. The Cowboys have yet to allow more than 19 points to an opponent. Not sure either streak remains intact, although I would say the Cowboys may have a real shot at limiting the Rams. It’s clear to me and many others that Matthew Stafford is not healthy. His off-season procedure on his elbow has resulted in what will be a lingering issue all season according to reports I have seen. Stafford leads the league in interceptions with six and the Cowboys’ defense is ninth overall with four interceptions. Can Trevon Diggs continue his excellent play against another opposing WR1 this time Cooper Kupp? Diggs may be helped by the Cowboys trio upfront of Demarcus Lawrence, Dorance Armstrong, and Micah Parsons who have combined for 10 sacks and 19 quarterback hits so far. Stafford under pressure has not looked good at all against the Bills and 49ers, you better believe the Cowboys will be looking to give Stafford the same treatment. The Rams’ offense is not the same without Woods, OBJ, and Van Jefferson. Unlike against the Niners, the Rams will try to establish their running game with Cam Akers and Darrell Henderson. The Cowboys will need to repeat the second-half performance they had against the Commanders’ ground game and force the Rams into being one-dimensional. Kupp will get his allotment of catches however if the Cowboys limit his production that will be a huge bonus. The Cowboy’s defense is ranked 7th in yards against averaging 308 yards and 3rd in scoring defense at 15.5 points per game. It will be vital to keep that level of play on Sunday. The Rams will need to find other contributors if they don’t I believe they are in for a long afternoon. Just as I wrote about in my season preview about the Bengals, the Rams also appear to be under the influence of a Super Bowl hangover. Will Sunday be the day the hangover ends?
Rams Defense vs Cowboys Offense
The reason the Rams were feared most of last season was the top-ten-level defense. led by Aaron Donald, and Jalen Ramsey plus they added LB Bobby Wagner in free agency. So far the Rams’ defense ranks 18th not where many felt they would be. Teams have been able to pass against the Rams by going to the opposite side of where Ramsey lines up. There hasn’t been a huge amount of pressure either from the defensive front ranking 22nd in the league in sacks. This group has been vulnerable and that has surprised many. Still top ten against the run however so Kellen Moore will need to be far more creative than he was against Washington. If Elliott and Pollard can get positive yardage on the early downs it sets up the Cowboys the play-action game. Here’s where the fun comes in, will it be Cooper Rush or Dak Prescott in week five at quarterback? Of course, Jerry Jones has chimed in with his usual blather. “I don’t know that you could ask for better news, technically [and] physically [with] how it’s responding, how it’s healing,” Jones said in reference to Dak’s recovery from his thumb surgery. The follow-up of course when asked about Dak being able to grip the football?”No, not well enough to play,” So I believe this will be Cooper Rush’s game to win or lose. As I said on Twitter when JJ was talking about Dak being out 4 weeks, not so fast. Doctors all said bone regeneration is normally 6 weeks sometimes a little faster. So for this week, I expect to see the same Cowboys offense as the last three weeks. Nothing spectacular, just effective.
Prediction
I am loathed to be too high or too low on the Cowboys. I love the three wins however since all three have required a team effort. The Cowboys have been the better TEAM through the first four weeks and while I would normally take the Rams at home, they simply have not looked that good. Having said that I also know the last 26 seasons the Cowboys have struggled to maintain momentum and tend to lose against top teams. The 2022 Rams so far have not been a top team. The Cowboys must not even think about the Super Bowl Rams, this is a different team they face on Sunday. So based solely on the 2022 season I think the Cowboys will eke out a hard-fought 21 to 17 win.
As always you can find me on Twitter @GregsCowboys
