Was Carson Wentz the Right Move?

By: Ryan Cooley

Washington’s quarterback mystery is finally over. The Colts and Commanders have agreed to terms on a trade that sends Carson Wentz to D.C. Here are the details of the trade:

Colts receive

• 2022 2^nd round pick
• 2022 3^rd round pick
• 2023 3^rd round pick with the potential to be a 2^nd rounder if Wentz plays 70% of the snaps in Washington

Commanders receive

• Carson Wentz
• 2022 2^nd round pick
• 2022 7^th round pick

The initial reaction to the trade was far from positive. Just a couple of days ago, Washington believed they had a shot at Russell Wilson, and now face the reality of having a quarterback who is on his third team in three years.

Trade Compensation

Giving up two early-round draft picks is far from ideal, but necessary when trading for a quarterback. Carson Wentz is viewed as a low-end starting quarterback with a higher upside than other options on the market this offseason.

A year ago, the Colts traded a first and third-rounder for Wentz. Like it or not, this is the bare minimum price to acquire a quarterback that will be starting. Jimmy Garoppolo is on the market and will likely warrant a similar price.

Salary

Wentz has a cap hit of $28.3 million in 2022, using up nearly 85% of their remaining cap space. Without restructuring any contracts, the Commanders had $5 million left. His salary is high for a low-tier starting quarterback. Since the Colts have plenty of cap space, it’s strange Washington didn’t demand the Colts be responsible for at least some of it.

The Landon Collins release saves around $6.6 million. The Commanders will undoubtedly make other moves to create more cap space. Letting go of Matt Ioannidis could save nearly $7 million. There are cheaper options for a rotational defensive lineman.

Is He an Upgrade?

Yes, Carson Wentz is an upgrade over Heinicke. Wentz’s 70.9 grade in 2021 is higher than any season grade for a Washington quarterback since Cousins’ 80.6 grade in 2016.

Heinicke’s inability to throw deep severely limited the playbook. His 52.6 deep passing grade ranked 35^th out of 37 and only managed a 32.8 adjusted completion percentage. Wentz earned a 90.7 deep passing grade with a 47.5 adjusted completion percentage.

When passing under pressure, Wentz’s passing grade ranked 11^th best, while Heinicke ranked 28^th. Wentz is known as a reckless quarterback who puts the ball in harm’s way far too often. Heinicke finished the year with a 4.4% turnover-worthy play rate (27 TWPs). Wentz finished 2021 with a 2.9% turnover-worthy play rate (18 TWPs). Despite pushing the ball down the field more, Wentz takes care of the ball at a far better rate than Taylor does.

Conclusion

Carson Wentz was no one’s first or second choice. However, after the Russell Wilson trade, options were scarce. Counting on Watson’s legal issues to be resolved would be a bad idea and it would take heaven and earth to trade for him. Wentz is arguably better than any free-agent quarterback on the market right now.

There is still a chance Washington drafts a quarterback at 11. However, if they don’t like any that are on the board, this move allows them to wait until 2023. After diving into each quarterback in this class, maybe Rivera and company decided none are worthy of the 11^th pick or can’t be a franchise guy (which is very possible with this class).

Wentz will not lead Washington to a Super Bowl, but he will at least make watching them in 2022 bearable. Hopefully, this organization will finally be able to find a long-term solution at quarterback in the coming years.

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