NFL
By: Stephen Garner
The Sky and Mercury, both teams taking the circuitous route with plenty of drama along the way, are now set to face-off in the 2021 WNBA Finals.
We saw these two teams in the 2014 WNBA Finals.
Though those were completely different renditions of each, it’s noteworthy to mention that the Mercury won said series in sweeping fashion behind a younger Taurasi and an even younger Griner at the time.
Aside from those two, that same series also featured both Courtney Vandersloot as well as Allie Quigley for the Sky.
Plenty of new faces are involved now, this year’s Finals is sure to be a great cap to a monumental journey of growth in season 25 of the WNBA.
Overview:
Phoenix swept this regular-season series 3-0.
Neither Parker nor Taurasi participated in their two early-season matchups. The margin of victory in those two games was as close as can be.
Game one final was 84-83 decided by one helluva play from Kia Nurse to steal the win on the road.
Game two was a 77-74 affair that came down to the wire as well and even needed an overtime period to determine a victor.
Game three was a 103-83 blowout as the Sky (following a weekend sweep of the defending champions) struggled to get going, while the Mercury were amidst their scorching 10-game win-streak out of the Olympic break.
How They Got Here
Both teams took the aforementioned circuitous route via first-round single-elimination, second-round single elimination, then ultra-competitive semi-final bouts, the Mercury playing one more game than the Sky to get to the Finals.
The Sky handled the young Dallas Wings at home, then bested the well-tested Minnesota Lynx on the road, before closing the odds-on favorite Connecticut Sun out in four in Chicago to punch their Finals ticket.
The Mercury took care of the youthful New York Liberty sans Diana Taurasi, then took out the defending champion Seattle Storm (sans Breanna Stewart) in overtime, before outlasting the top-heavy Las Vegas Aces in an elimination game five on the road.
Why the Sky will Win
Rest and Health
The Sky will be coming into this series both healthy and whole, which, oftentimes, is enough to tilt the scale just enough in your favor at this juncture of the season.
They will also have had nearly two full days more of rest having ended their semi-finals series a game earlier.
Depth
Tying in with health, coach Wade and company will have their full arsenal to deploy in rotation, whereas their opposition will be minus a key cog.
Pace
Kahleah Copper is playing the best basketball of her professional career at the aptest of times for the Sky.
Their regular season leading scorer, she’s increased her per game totals in points, rebounds, assists, steals, field goal percentage, and three-point percentage.
A premier slasher, the Rutgers product has become quite literally the engine that makes them go as she scores in every way possible for a win. On the ball, off the ball, in transition, in the halfcourt, via set plays, via hustle plays, via timely off-ball cuts from the wing and baseline, from the free-throw line. She’s doing it all, and with more energy than can be matched more times than not.
Her ultra-quick first step and more than serviceable handle have her living in the paint as she’s getting 51.4% of her points in the paint, and converting at 61.4% within five feet of the rim as well.
Her heart-charging style of play sparks runs, as 22% of her points come in transition, garnering momentum, and allowing the Sky to take over games as they come in a hurry and a flurry.
Playmaking Production
Courtney Vandersloot’s feel for the game is second to none in the playmaking department, and she has the pulse of her team in the palm of her hands with every set she initiates. She’s also averaging a playoff career-high in points (14 PPG). She manipulates nearly every situation into an advantageous one.
The Parker-Stevens Frontcourt Tandem
Candace Parker, what more can you say? She’s come home and is in search of her second championship. Ever-steady, whenever the team needs anything they know they can bank on her unparalleled versatility. From the restricted area stretched out to the three-point line, she’s getting it done. 13.3 PPG, 8.3 RPG, 5 APG, 2 SPG, 1.2 BPG. She’s just getting it done, on both ends of the floor.
Azura Stevens is the unsung hero of this Sky team and has come on at the perfect time as well. She wasn’t inserted into the starting lineup until their second game out of the Olympic break, August 17th, due to a minutes restriction she was on in response to off-season left knee surgery. In tandem with Parker, she was able to contain MVP Jonquel Jones as she averaged just 16.3 PPG. That includes games of four and 10 points in games two and three respectively.
Stevens combines discipline, activity, and versatility via quick feet in her 6’6 frame with a wide wingspan that allows her to be disruptive in one-on-one defense, as the helper, in passing lanes, and on the glass.
These two have established a synergy in coexisting, with trust and versatility at the foundation as they coexist.
Why the Mercury Will Win
Brittney Griner
The Mercury are best when they run their offense through her.
Just one touch attracts the attention of all five defenders, rendering them helpless oftentimes as they send doubles at her and the Mercury run a secondary offense of sorts with cutters and their shooters, mainly Taurasi and Diggins-Smith, attacking closeouts.
Her playmaking from the post, specifically when being doubled, has been one of the best developments of her game and has opened up their offense.
Defensively, she was the league leader in blocks per game and does so without fouling more often than not. The Sky bigs will test her and try pulling her away from the cup with their spacing but, as we saw with the Aces, she’ll likely leave them open to take those shots.
Taurasi will receive a lot of attention for her fourth quarter to get them here, but Griners downright two-way dominance cannot go unnoticed.
Taurasi’s Killer-Instinct
The Mercury have thrived in close games and Taurasi’s innate sense of the moment allows them to get it done time after time.
Her health will be a running variable through the finish line, but if she’s able to be on the floor they certainly have a chance as we just saw in the last series.
Diggins-Smith
As aggressive and relentless as they come, Skylar will be in attack mode every second she’s on the floor.
She had her struggles last series in efficiency but that won’t deter her from putting up more attempts especially out of pick and roll.
GOING SKY HIGH FOR 3! pic.twitter.com/ohvIem0hpj
— Phoenix Mercury (@PhoenixMercury) October 9, 2021
She also led the league in free-throw attempts as a guard, indicative of her frequency at the cup while shooting 46.2% in the restricted area, and 43.6% in the paint outside of that at 6.6 total points in the paint these playoffs.
Brianna Turner
Enjoying her second consecutive all-defensive first-team honors this season, Brianna Turner has been absolutely invaluable for the Mercury as she fortified their rim protection as well as being viable on the glass as well.
She brings energy and effort and does not need the ball to be effective on the floor. The quintessential player to have in a lineup with a big three.
What a trip it has been for them, from being my team “under the most pressure” coming back from the Olympics with Taurasi missing plenty of games this season including their first-round single-elimination game to losing Nurse early in game four, to even being without Cunningham the past two games, this team answers adversity collectively.
They will be heavily lenient upon those three to do what big three’s do especially in crunch time, coming up with both timely stops and timely baskets in execution.
The key stat to watch
3-point shooting efficiency
The Sky are shooting 33.3% on 23 attempts a night, while the Mercury are at 34.6% on 25.6 attempts.
They’re relatively similar in volume and the clip at which they convert.
They manufacture their attempts in completely contrasting ways, however, as the Mercury take a lot of catch and shoot attempts from kick-outs and swings, while the Sky shoot many by design and off of the drive and kick variety.
Whoever can be more effective with their looks will see a solid edge here.
Key Matchups
Griner vs Stevens-Parker Tandem
The premier post presence in the W, Griner has had her way whenever she’s wanted it these playoffs. Including nearly every game vs the loaded Aces frontcourt.
She averaged 21.6 against the Stokes-Cambage-Hamby-Wilson frontcourt foursome.
The Skys frontcourt tandem is the team’s second most effective defensive pairing (opponents are a -11.2 in their minutes shared in these playoffs), and opponents shoot just 43.4% against them.
Look at this team defense from the Sky. Quigley fights over the screen which takes away the rescreen. Fights over the rescreen. Candace Parker with a great rotation to Jones popping. Stevens recovers to the drive. CVS fights to get around the duck in. On a string. pic.twitter.com/dxtewdKghZ
— Steve Jones Jr. (@stevejones20) October 7, 2021
Parker could draw the initial assignment, allowing Stevens to come along as the active deterrent using her wingspan to take away passing angles from BG as the Sky put a tag on her in their principles. Stevens is also the more capable defender in scramble situations as well.
Sky defense vs Griner’s passes out of double-teams
The Sky have done a solid job in instances where they have to communicate and scramble to shooters defensively, but a test different than any they’ve faced these playoffs lies ahead of them and will be a factor in how effective their defense can be this series.
Sky transition points vs Mercury transition defense
It’s no secret the Sky love to play with pace, they’re averaging 15.4 points off turnovers. The Mercury allow 7.8 fast break points per game.
Prediction:
Sky in four as Candace Parker completes her homecoming and wins the 2021 WNBA Finals at home.
The WNBA Finals schedule is below
I'm a broken record here but no Finals game should be on ESPN2. pic.twitter.com/M0nYfwrasq
— Richard Deitsch (@richarddeitsch) October 9, 2021
Game one is Sunday at 2 pm CST on ABC. Tune in!
*All stats and information used come directly from basketball-reference or WNBA.com/stats unless stated otherwise and are accurate as of 10.8.21*
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