NFL
By: Ryan Cooley
1. Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence burst onto the scene in 2018 after leading Clemson to an undefeated season and a National Championship as a true freshman. Lawrence shredded Nick Saban’s defense in the National Championship, putting up over 350 total yards and 3 touchdowns in a 44-16 beatdown. Lawrence has posted a 90+ grade from Pro Football Focus in all three seasons. There is little doubt who the Jaguars will be selecting with the first overall pick.
Pros: We don’t see prospects like Lawrence every year. His combination of rare physical tools paired with high IQ makes him one of the best quarterbacks we’ve seen in some time. His processing speed and ability to recognize blitzes/coverages are off the charts. He has great instincts in the pocket and rarely took bad sacks. Starting all three seasons and playing in many big games makes him one of the most experienced quarterbacks in the draft. He has elite vision and anticipation. An underrated aspect of his game is his athleticism. He will be able to outrun some defensive lineman and linebackers.
Cons: Lawrence will need to work on his accuracy. There were too many throws that flew over the receiver’s heads. He also had a tendency to not give up on plays. I would like to see him simply throw the ball away when the play isn’t there. Lawrence would lock onto his primary target at times. His long frame is another small concern while in the pocket.
The future first pick in the draft is going to be a day one starter. While I think Lawrence will be great in the NFL, he is not a perfect quarterback. However, he is clearly the best prospect at his position. Jaguars fans should be excited for the future of Jacksonville.
2. Zach Wilson
Before this year, Zach Wilson wasn’t a well-known name. After his Burrow-like season, Wilson shot up draft boards and got the attention of the national media. His 95.4 grade from PFF was higher than Joe Burrow’s 2019 season. Wilson has the best pure arm talent of anyone in this class. I am not sure if Wilson will be ready come Week 1, but he has the potential to be a great quarterback in the NFL.
Pros: Wilson’s arm talent is something that can’t be coached. With the flick of his wrist, the ball will go 65 yards in the air. Mahomes won’t be the only quarterback on Sunday making crazy off-platform throws next season. He has excellent escapability, which got him out of some pressures and sacks and will translate to the next level. Wilson also demonstrated pinpoint accuracy on many throws (80.6 adjusted completion percentage).
Cons: His footwork will need a lot of improvement. There were far too many passes where he didn’t set his feet, resulting in an ugly throw. Wilson needs to learn to not only rely on his arm. BYU had a great offensive line which meant Wilson did not face a ton of pressure (pressured on only 21.6% of dropbacks). Injuries are a concern as well, with his small frame and suffering two injuries in 2018. 2020 was his only year playing at an elite level, and he didn’t face stiff competition playing at BYU.
Zach Wilson is not a perfect prospect and will need serious work on his mechanics before he is ready to play at a high level in the NFL. If the team that drafts him is patient and works with him, the payoff will be worth it.
3. Mac Jones
Most will agree with my first and second rankings, but the majority will disagree with Mac Jones at three. Mac Jones led Alabama to the National Championship, where he completed 80% of his passes, 464 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. His production was out of this world, but many believe this stems from what surrounded him. I will not deny that he had talent all around him. This is when you have to look at the tape, which showed Alabama’s weapons benefited from playing with Jones as much as Jones benefited from playing with them.
Pros: Jones was the most accurate quarterback in the nation when throwing 0-9 yards with an adjusted completion percentage of 86.8%. He demonstrated great timing and anticipation on throws. There were very few times where he got the ball to the receiver early or late. While many have questioned his athleticism, Jones did run a 4.68 forty and jumped a 32 inch vertical. His forty-time was the same as Justin Herbert’s, and his shuttle and 3-cone drills were faster than Herbert’s. He posses tremendous leadership and work ethic while having a high football IQ.
Cons: Mac Jones is what the NFL is moving away from. The pocket passer is a dying breed, which will turn some teams away. Even with his forty-time, Jones will not be any what of a runner at the next level. There are also concerns with his arm strength. A number of deep passes were underthrown, but Alabama’s receivers covered them up. Other concerns include only playing at a high level for one year and playing with some of the nation’s best wide receivers.
Jones will not make jaw-dropping throws every week, but he is fundamentally sound. If he goes to a team with an established foundation and a strong supporting cast, Jones could thrive.
4. Trey Lance
Trey Lance is the definition of a raw prospect. Sadly, North Dakota State University did not have a season in 2020, which limited Lance’s experience. Due to this, he only has one year of starting under his belt. However, he put on a show that one year. He ended the season with almost 4,000 total yards, 42 total touchdowns, and 0 interceptions.
Pros: Lance would instantly be one of the best running QBs in the NFL. In 2019, he rushed for 1,150 yards and 14 touchdowns. He has a cannon of an arm and isn’t afraid to use it, having an 11.5-yard average depth of target. Most quarterbacks who throw deep routinely will have a high rate of turnovers, but not Lance. His smart decision-making led to only five turnover-worthy plays in 2019.
Cons: Lance did not throw a lot at NDSU and relied too much on his legs. One game had 30 rush attempts to only 10 pass attempts. At times it felt as if I was watching a running back and not a quarterback. His accuracy was inconsistent, and he had poor ball placement. Lance also faced weak competition playing in the MVFC, and NDSU is basically Alabama in their conference. He will need heavy development as a passer which could take a while.
Trey Lance is a project, but one that is worth the risk. You can make the argument that he is the most physically gifted quarterback in the draft. If he falls to a team that takes time to develop him, he could be an elite signal-caller in a few years.
5. Justin Fields
Heading into the 2020 season, Fields was the unanimous QB2, only behind Lawerence. However, with other quarterbacks thriving, Fields stock may have dropped. While he has all of the talent in the world, that doesn’t always lead to a successful NFL career. Don’t let this ranking fool you. Fields would easily be the first or second-best quarterback in most other drafts. While he has a lot of potential, I have some significant concerns as well.
Pros: Fields has all of the physical tools to be a high-end quarterback at the next level. His accuracy is on another level, no matter where he is throwing it. He is a dynamic runner and posted a 4.44 forty time. Fields wasn’t reckless with the football either, only having 18 turnover-worthy plays in his career. Unlike Jones, most of his yards came through the air and not off screens. His running and passing abilities are what the NFL has transitioned to in recent years.
Cons: The mental aspect is where Fields shows some concerns. His processing speed is slower than the other quarterbacks on this list. He also has a habit of staring down his first read, which is a dangerous habit to possess in the NFL; ask Dwayne Haskins. Yes, there are plays where he goes through his progressions quickly and doesn’t stare down his first read, but he is not consistent enough with it. Speaking of consistency, Fields’ inconsistent play is one of my biggest concerns. His games against Northwestern and Indiana were tough to watch. When playing tougher defenses, his play dropped.
Most people who read this will think it is ridiculous to have Fields this low. Every year there are quarterbacks who disappoint, and I believe Fields might be the one. If he can bring everything together and work hard, there is no reason to believe that he cannot have a successful NFL career, but that does not always happen.
