NFL
2021 NFL Week Six Gambling Picks
Five weeks through with the NFL season and the MVP race has begun taking shape. Arizona still remains as the lone undefeated team, while the Chiefs are in a free-fall after a sound defeat at home to the Bills (wagon-circle alert!). We had a few blowouts, some wildly entertaining finishes (see – CLE/LAC and IND/BAL), and a record number of missed field goals/extra points (hot seat – kickers). Let’s get right into it with my first MVP rankings of the year, followed by our weekly recap, and then some winners for week six.
MVP Ladder (Through Week 5)
1) Justin Herbert (4-1 record, 1,576 passing yards, 13 TD, 3 INT)
2) Josh Allen (4-1 record, 1,370 passing yards, 14 total TDs, 2 INT)
3) Dak Prescott (4-1 record, 1,368 passing yards, 13 TD, 3 INT)
4) Kyler Murray (5-0 record, 1,512 passing yards, 13 total TDs, 4 INT)
5) Lamar Jackson (4-1 record, 1,519 passing yards, 10 total TDs, 3 INT)
Before we get to the 2021 NFL week six gambling picks, here’s a quick note on where I’m getting the odds for each matchup, as well as how you could earn some free gambling money to put on some of the games. For this week, all odds and bets are pulled directly from Jazz Sportsbook. Be sure to head over to register and use, new promo code “TEAM” for a 125% Free Play up to $1,000. Additionally, each new member can earn a $10 Free Bet with a minimum deposit of $25. Also, be sure to head over to Play PickUp, where you can vote on my prop and make picks on the hottest headlines in sports. Sign up and play HERE
Let’s quickly recap week five’s picks…
Week Five Team Bets (3 Wins, 2 Losses)
Rams / Seahawks under 54.5 points √
Packers (-3.5) at Bengals X
Broncos at Steelers (-1.5) √
Chargers +7 / Ravens -1; 6-point teaser √
Dolphins at Bucs (-4.5), Steelers/Broncos under 45.5 points; 6-point teaser X
Week Five Player Prop Bets (3 Wins, 3 Losses)
Russell Wilson (SEA) to throw an interception (+124) √
Derrick Henry (TEN) over 111.5 rushing yards (-114) √
Zach Wilson (NYJ) over 33.5 passing attempts (-120) X
Lamar Jackson (BAL) anytime touchdown scorer (-130) X
Robby Anderson (CAR) over 47.5 receiving yards (-114) X
Odell Beckham Jr. (CLE) under 56.5 receiving yards (-114) √
After five weeks, we sit at 11-16 with team/parlay picks, and 16-14 in player prop selections, or 27-30 overall.
Now let’s move to the week six picks…
Player Prop Bets
Antonio Brown (TB) over 4.5 receptions (-148)
Lamar Jackson (BAL) over 234.5 passing yards (-113)
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 2.5 passing touchdowns (-158)
Cooper Kupp (LAR) anytime touchdown scorer (-150)
Najee Harris (PIT) over 18.5 rushing attempts (-114)
Diontae Johnson (PIT) over 64.5 receiving yards (-114)
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Buccaneers -1, Chiefs -0.5; 6-point teaser (-134)
What you smell outside is not the crisp, fall air. Instead, it’s the smell of another teaser, this time with the two Super Bowl teams from a year ago. The Bucs rebounded from a subpar performance (by their standards) against the Patriots two weeks ago to throttle the Dolphins behind five touchdown passes from Tom Brady. Now, Tampa has a short week before traveling to Philadelphia to take on the lowly Eagles, who have shown little-to-no ability stopping good offenses this season. Brady’s nagging thumb injury is something to monitor, plus Thursday games tend to get a little weird, so we’ll tease the line down from -7 to just -1. Expect Tampa to keep rolling.
As for the Chiefs, they are off to an abysmal start at 2-3 and have by far the worst defense in the NFL so far (giving up 32.6 points per game). They can’t cover anyone, stop the run, or tackle. On offense, Patrick Mahomes has been great at times, but his six interceptions is as many as he threw in the 2019 and 2020 seasons, and Kanas City is tied for the most turnovers in the NFL. Adding in the fact they’ve covered once in the past 15 games, and teasing them down to -0.5 against a banged-up Washington team that just lost to New Orleans is the safer play. I feel good about both picks winning this week. Bucs 31, Eagles 20 | Chiefs 30, Washington 24
Cowboys ML / Rams ML parlay (-130)
Our first moneyline parlay of the season, we’re taking two of the best teams in the league on the road just to win. Starting with Dallas, who has won four in a row and scored 36+ points in each of the last three contests. We already saw Dak Prescott in the MVP rankings above, so it’s no surprise we like his group to win in New England this week. While the Patriots haven’t shown much this year (barely beating the lowly Texans last week), they can still be a feisty group at home, so just taking the Cowboys to win is the smarter player here. They’re due for a lull performance anyways, so
For the Rams, they are well-rested after not playing since last Thursday night and face a New York roster that has injuries to Saquon Barkley and others. Los Angeles covering -10.5 is a lot to ask, however, for a team traveling from West to East, so combining their moneyline with the Cowboys gets those odds down to a respectable -130. Matthew Stafford continues to excel in Sean McVay’s offense, and Robert Woods finally had his breakout game last week (12 catches for 150 yards). Aaron Donald and that defense rebounded from a poor showing against the Cardinals to allow just 354 total yards against the Seahawks. Look for them to continue their winning ways against the Giants. Cowboys 23, Patriots 20 | Rams 24, Giants 13
Cardinals / Browns over 49.5 points (-110)
Two of the seven highest-scoring teams meet in Cleveland this weekend as the Cardinals looks to remain undefeated against the Browns. Both teams are coming off of games that came down to close fourth quarters, with Cleveland losing arguably the best game of the week to the Chargers, while Arizona pulled out a 17-10 slugfest victory against San Francisco. With Jadeveon Clowney and other members of the Cleveland defense banged up, they’ll be hard-pressed to slow down Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins this week. Throw in the Browns running game looking spectacular and Baker Mayfield finding his rhythm again, and you have a recipe for another shootout. I think the Cardinals pull out a close victory on the road; however, a Browns win in the Dawg Pound would also not be surprising. Cardinals 31, Browns 27
Bills (-6) at Titans (-110)
“Nobody circles the wagon…” is the phrase associated with the Buffalo Bills, whereas the actual phrase should be “nobody covers better this season”. Buffalo has a 4-1 record ATS this year and should be in a great spot to continue that against the mediocre Titans. Josh Allen has established himself as a top-level MVP candidate while the Buffalo defense has given up just 64 points in five weeks. The Bills shook off a week one upset loss to the Steelers and look like the favorites to come out of the AFC. Meanwhile, Tennessee has been up and down all season, due to a horrendous defense and injuries to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones. Derrick Henry has been his usual destructive self, but the Titans just don’t have enough defense to contain Allen and that Buffalo offense. It’ll be close for 40 minutes, but I think Allen and Co. take the win in a rather easy fashion. Bills 31, Titans 17
Packers +1.5, Steelers +1.5, Bills -0; 6-point teaser (+140)
Green Bay struggled to beat Cincinnati last Sunday thanks to three missed field goals from Mason Crosby (4/7 on the day), but still, stand at 4-1 and firmly in control of the NFC North. Thankfully, a much easier game against the division-rival Chicago Bears awaits Aaron Rodgers, who has dominated them during his career. Bears fans can recite by heart Rodgers’ record against the Bears — 20-4 with a 107.2 passer rating (55 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) in regular-season games he started and finished. Plus the NFC Championship Game loss. In short, the Packers will win and continue to torture Chicago once again. Just in case Rodgers has an off night, we’ll tease them down to +1.5 in order to ensure a Packers wins by 1-4 points doesn’t screw us over.
The Steelers have not looked great through five weeks (2-3 overall), but the fortunes have given them a favorable schedule in the next four weeks. Pittsburgh hosts Seattle this Sunday without Russell Wilson (hello Geno Smith!). Then they play at Cleveland, where they historically do well, followed by matchups against the Bears and Lions. Big Ben and the crew could conceivably be 5-4 after these next four weeks. Anyways, look for the Steelers to get their second home win of the season against Seattle, as Chase Claypool has a big game. Even if Seattle’s defense makes it interesting, Pittsburgh should be able to win the game outright.
Finally, we have the Bills, which we already discussed above. Josh Allen is playing nuclear football right now and should be responsible for at least three touchdowns on Sunday. Teasing them down to -0, aka just win the game, is a steal and we should have no problems with this pick. Packers 27, Bears 16 | Steelers 20, Seahawks 13 | Bills 31, Titans 17
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Player Futures Gambling Props Update
Amari Cooper under 1,150 receiving yards: Currently at 318 receiving yards
Josh Allen over 4,500 passing yards: Currently at 1,370 passing yards
Josh Allen over 41.5 pass/rush TD’s: Currently at 14 total touchdowns
Josh Allen to win MVP: Currently around 2nd in my MVP race after four weeks
Davante Adams over 1300 receiving yards: Currently at 579 receiving yards
Christian McCaffrey over 15.5 total TD’s: Currently at 1 total touchdown
Antonio Gibson over 1,025 rushing yards: Currently at 313 rushing yards
Team Future Win Totals Update
Bills over 11 wins: Currently 4-1
Bills 12-17 wins: Currently 4-1
Bucs over 11.5 wins: Currently 4-1
Texans/Lions parlay under 4.5 wins each: Currently 1-4 and 0-5
Lions under 5 wins: Currently 0-5
Giants under 7 wins: Currently 1-4
