By: Stephen Garner

After an attention-garnering 51-21 regular season campaign, compiling the second-best record in the league, the Phoenix Suns find themselves in a position to hold home-court advantage until at least the Western Conference Finals. 

They have checked off every point needed to affirm their legitimacy, and have gone above and beyond the call of duty to exceed expectations over the course of this 72 game campaign.

Now is time for the true test, under the playoff spotlight.

Suns vs Lakers

Can the Suns win this series?

Yes. Given all that has transpired over the regular season, as well as where each team has placed in the final ranks, it’d be wrong to say that they can’t. Will they win though? That’s the true question at hand.

The defending champion Los Angeles Lakers (42-30) pose as, potentially, the strongest 7th seeded team in NBA history (especially under recent constraints). They are extremely top-heavy, hosting two top five talents in LeBron James and Anthony Davis, along with two sixth man caliber players in Dennis Schroeder and Montrezl Harrell, Kyle Kuzma, a big body athletic addition in Andre Drummond, and scrappy ancillary players in Alex Caruso, Talen Horton-Tucker, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Marcus Morris, Wes Matthews, and now Ben McLemore too. 

Offensively: 

They’ve been rather pedestrian at best. On the season, they rank bottom third (23rd) and have had issues in ball security and overall shot selection/flow. 

This, of course, can be attributed in large part to being without one (or both) of their top guys for lengthy stretches of the season. It can also be attributed to the lack of offense generated from Lakers not named LeBron or AD, especially in the half-court setting.

They do not have the best floor spacing, especially when LeBron is at the 3 and Davis is sharing the frontcourt with Harrell or Drummond. The court shrinks and also takes away from the effectiveness of LeBron in the screen game with another paint-dweller taking up that space.

Within their freelance offense, they tend to go to LeBron in isolation both in space, the pinch post, or the low block where he is tough to guard and unlocks their off-ball movement. They also like to go pick and roll involving AD in the screen game, or stealing isolation from near the 3-point line which is where he likes to catch the ball. 

They also prey on teams in transition where, outside of LeBron: Schroeder, Caruso, Caldwell-Pope, Horton-Tucker, and Kuzma take full advantage of their hit-ahead opportunities. Which leads perfectly into the next segment.

Defensively:

The Lakers are, statistically, the 2nd best defense in the league.

I reserve the opinion that they are the best, though. The ability to play numerous defensive schemes, while having both James and Davis to deploy defensively is as stout as it gets both on paper and on the court. 

Outside of those all-world defenders, they have tough/Swiss army knives like in Caruso, Horton-Tucker, Matthews, and Caldwell-Pope who defend viably. Then, they have energy-type defenders in Drummond and Schroeder.

It blends together to where they can cover up for the likes of Harrell and Kuzma when offenses look to exploit matchups, evident by the high turnover rate and just overall stingy efforts they compile on that end, collectively.

They force a lot of turnovers with their activity, at the 4th highest rate in the league. There will be a lot of chess being played as Vogel and company try to stifle the 6th best offense in the NBA.

Where the Suns must Seize the Moment

Bench units, i.e. LeBrons off minutes 

Given how his health is gauged, I am very curious as to if the Lakers taper back from what would be LeBron’s typical workload on a nightly basis. 

For reference, the Lakers are:

• +14.2 with James and Davis sharing the court (98th percentile)
• +7.1 with just James on (88th percentile overall and 95th defensively)
• -2.8 with just Davis on the floor (33rd percentile defensively and 47th in offense)

Should the Suns take advantage of those moments within the game when LeBron rests, that would bode well in their short-term endeavors of not just making a playoff appearance, but making a run. 

They will need their Cams (Payne and Johnson) to be effective and efficient in shooting and play in tandem. They both are active on the offensive end in off-ball movement and are capable creators with the ball in their hands. 

For Johnson, it’s an underrated dynamic of his game but he can truly put the ball on the floor and get to the basket off of shot fakes on long closeouts, or even one dribble to move the ball. In that regard, he’s the best on the roster (sans Cameron Payne) in playing Monty’s designed offense of quick decisions.

For Payne, his play in tandem with either Paul and/or Booker will be vital. He will need to remain sharp in his decision-making and continue to stay solid defensively, as well as shoot at these elite clips (47/45/89 shooting slash, efg% of 57.5 which is in the 93rd percentile).

The Suns will also need Saric to be much better than he was the final two months of the regular season. 

Taking Care of the Ball

As mentioned earlier, the Lakers are stingy defensively, and that allows them to force live-ball turnovers. Those then lead to the showtime/momentum garnering system that can be crushing in the crucial points of games, evident by their early 4th quarter run vs the Warriors on Wednesday.

Great news for the Suns, they were 4th best in taking care of the ball this season. Even more great news, they have arguably the most efficient playmaker and playmaker on volume in the history of the game in the Point God, Chris Paul. In these games where every possession must be valued, having him at the helm is even more than just an asset. 

In addition, Cameron Payne has been damn good in taking care of the ball this season. He’s at his second-highest usage percentage of his career (22.8%) and is also at his second-best turnover percentage of coughing the ball up just 11.2% of the time. 

Mid-range Mastery

The Suns finished the season as the best shooting team from the mid-range, shooting 49.1% from there collectively.

That is, in large part, due to Paul (93rd percentile, 53%), Booker (97th percentile, 50%), and Bridges (94th percentile, 50%). 

Each of these 3 has the ability to go off script and create in the in-between game. Paul and Booker have put up plenty more attempts than Bridges, of course, but the efficiency regardless of volume unlocks a new dynamic of the Suns offense. 

This is the point in the season where the teams that can execute best from the mid-range see the most success offensively. The Suns being able to bank on their attempts from here, regardless of the opponent is a great elixir. 

A Resurfacing of their Top 6 Ranked Defense

Over the final two weeks of the regular season, the once-solid and viable defense of the Sun’s ranked just 25th in the league during said stretch. That is indicative of how they performed on that end since around the second week of April. They need to sharpen up their rotations and communication before game 1 as moving forward, their margin for error is slim.

Take Full Advantage of Home Court

The Suns will need to win not just one, but both of their home games to start the series, applying the most pressure possible on the Lakers early in the series. This is imperative as, regardless of how the following two in Los Angeles would go, they’d be in the driver’s seat of things.

Crunch Time Execution

The Suns will need to continue their crunch-time execution to advance. They were 4-3 in overtime games, 23-8 in games within 10, then 9-3 in games within 3 points. Even more, the play calling from Monty and scoring from Paul and Booker will be called to action often. 

These games will be tight.

In Conclusion

Should the Suns get the necessary “help” from the Lakers in LeBron not being 100%, exploiting the minutes where LeBron rests, and control what they can control, the margin of error that they are up against can be managed in their favor.

Prediction

All things considered, I’m taking the Suns in 7.

The winner of this series will represent the West in the NBA Finals.

Playoff basketball is HERE!

*All stats and information used come directly from basketball-reference.com, cleaningtheglass.com, or nba.com/stats unless stated otherwise and are accurate as of the end of the regular season, 5.16.2021

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